Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
Revenue, $ | | 2466 | 2589 | 2718 | 2854 | 2997 | 3147 | 3304 | 3470 | 3643 | 3825 | 4016 | 4217 | 4428 | 4650 | 4882 | 5126 | 5382 | 5652 | 5934 | 6231 | 6542 | 6869 | 7213 | 7574 | 7952 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 2219 | 2330 | 2447 | 2569 | 2697 | 2832 | 2974 | 3123 | 3279 | 3443 | 3615 | 3796 | 3985 | 4185 | 4394 | 4613 | 4844 | 5086 | 5341 | 5608 | 5888 | 6183 | 6492 | 6816 | 7157 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 152 | 165 | 179 | 194 | 211 | 229 | 248 | 269 | 292 | 317 | 344 | 373 | 405 | 440 | 477 | 518 | 561 | 609 | 661 | 717 | 778 | 844 | 916 | 994 | 1078 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 2371 | 2495 | 2626 | 2763 | 2908 | 3061 | 3222 | 3392 | 3571 | 3760 | 3959 | 4169 | 4390 | 4625 | 4871 | 5131 | 5405 | 5695 | 6002 | 6325 | 6666 | 7027 | 7408 | 7810 | 8235 |
Operating income, $m | | 94 | 94 | 93 | 91 | 89 | 86 | 82 | 78 | 72 | 65 | 57 | 48 | 38 | 25 | 11 | -5 | -23 | -44 | -68 | -94 | -124 | -157 | -195 | -237 | -283 |
EBITDA, $m | | 155 | 157 | 159 | 161 | 162 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 161 | 159 | 156 | 152 | 146 | 140 | 131 | 121 | 109 | 95 | 78 | 59 | 37 | 11 | -18 | -50 | -88 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 18 | 62 | 65 | 67 | 69 | 72 | 75 | 78 | 81 | 84 | 87 | 91 | 94 | 98 | 102 | 106 | 111 | 116 | 120 | 126 | 131 | 137 | 143 | 149 | 155 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 76 | 31 | 28 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 7 | 0 | -9 | -18 | -30 | -42 | -57 | -73 | -91 | -111 | -134 | -160 | -188 | -220 | -255 | -294 | -337 | -385 | -439 |
Tax expense, $m | | 21 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 55 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 0 | -9 | -18 | -30 | -42 | -57 | -73 | -91 | -111 | -134 | -160 | -188 | -220 | -255 | -294 | -337 | -385 | -439 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1874 | 1968 | 2066 | 2169 | 2278 | 2392 | 2511 | 2637 | 2769 | 2907 | 3052 | 3205 | 3365 | 3534 | 3710 | 3896 | 4091 | 4295 | 4510 | 4735 | 4972 | 5221 | 5482 | 5756 | 6044 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1874 | 1968 | 2066 | 2169 | 2278 | 2392 | 2511 | 2637 | 2769 | 2907 | 3052 | 3205 | 3365 | 3534 | 3710 | 3896 | 4091 | 4295 | 4510 | 4735 | 4972 | 5221 | 5482 | 5756 | 6044 |
Average production assets, $m | | 1425 | 1496 | 1571 | 1650 | 1732 | 1819 | 1910 | 2005 | 2106 | 2211 | 2321 | 2438 | 2559 | 2687 | 2822 | 2963 | 3111 | 3267 | 3430 | 3601 | 3781 | 3971 | 4169 | 4378 | 4596 |
Working capital, $m | | -106 | -111 | -117 | -123 | -129 | -135 | -142 | -149 | -157 | -164 | -173 | -181 | -190 | -200 | -210 | -220 | -231 | -243 | -255 | -268 | -281 | -295 | -310 | -326 | -342 |
Total debt, $m | | 1558 | 1614 | 1673 | 1735 | 1800 | 1869 | 1940 | 2016 | 2095 | 2178 | 2265 | 2357 | 2453 | 2554 | 2660 | 2771 | 2888 | 3011 | 3140 | 3275 | 3417 | 3566 | 3723 | 3887 | 4060 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 1124 | 1181 | 1240 | 1302 | 1367 | 1435 | 1507 | 1582 | 1661 | 1744 | 1831 | 1923 | 2019 | 2120 | 2226 | 2338 | 2454 | 2577 | 2706 | 2841 | 2983 | 3132 | 3289 | 3454 | 3626 |
Total equity, $m | | 750 | 787 | 826 | 868 | 911 | 957 | 1005 | 1055 | 1107 | 1163 | 1221 | 1282 | 1346 | 1413 | 1484 | 1558 | 1636 | 1718 | 1804 | 1894 | 1989 | 2088 | 2193 | 2302 | 2417 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.614 | 1.979 | 1.953 | 1.928 | 1.904 | 1.882 | 1.860 | 1.840 | 1.820 | 1.801 | 1.784 | 1.767 | 1.751 | 1.735 | 1.721 | 1.707 | 1.694 | 1.681 | 1.669 | 1.657 | 1.647 | 1.636 | 1.626 | 1.617 | 1.608 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 55 | 23 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 0 | -9 | -18 | -30 | -42 | -57 | -73 | -91 | -111 | -134 | -160 | -188 | -220 | -255 | -294 | -337 | -385 | -439 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 61 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 74 | 77 | 81 | 85 | 90 | 94 | 99 | 104 | 109 | 114 | 120 | 126 | 132 | 139 | 146 | 153 | 161 | 169 | 177 | 186 | 195 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 116 | 87 | 87 | 88 | 88 | 87 | 87 | 85 | 81 | 76 | 69 | 61 | 52 | 42 | 29 | 15 | -2 | -21 | -42 | -67 | -94 | -125 | -160 | -199 | -243 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -8 | -8 | -9 | -9 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -12 | -13 | -13 | -14 | -15 | -16 | -16 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 121 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 92 | 88 | 83 | 77 | 70 | 61 | 51 | 39 | 25 | 9 | -9 | -30 | -54 | -81 | -111 | -145 | -184 | -227 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -61 | -64 | -67 | -70 | -74 | -77 | -81 | -85 | -90 | -94 | -99 | -104 | -109 | -114 | -120 | -126 | -132 | -139 | -146 | -153 | -161 | -169 | -177 | -186 | -195 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -68 | -71 | -75 | -79 | -82 | -87 | -91 | -95 | -100 | -105 | -111 | -116 | -122 | -128 | -134 | -141 | -148 | -156 | -163 | -171 | -180 | -189 | -199 | -208 | -219 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -128 | -135 | -142 | -149 | -156 | -164 | -172 | -181 | -190 | -199 | -209 | -220 | -231 | -242 | -254 | -267 | -280 | -294 | -309 | -325 | -341 | -358 | -376 | -395 | -414 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -7 | -43 | -49 | -55 | -62 | -70 | -79 | -89 | -101 | -116 | -132 | -150 | -169 | -191 | -215 | -242 | -271 | -304 | -339 | -378 | -422 | -469 | -521 | -578 | -641 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 80 | 88 | 96 | 106 | 116 | 127 | 139 | 154 | 171 | 190 | 211 | 234 | 259 | 286 | 316 | 349 | 385 | 425 | 469 | 516 | 568 | 626 | 688 | 756 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -104 | -37 | -39 | -41 | -43 | -46 | -48 | -50 | -53 | -55 | -58 | -61 | -64 | -67 | -71 | -74 | -78 | -82 | -86 | -90 | -95 | -99 | -104 | -110 | -115 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 489 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 378 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 360 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 96 | 92 | 89 | 85 | 81 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 66 | 62 | 59 | 55 | 51 | 48 | 44 | 41 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 26 | 23 | 21 | 19 |