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Intrinsic Value of Amedisys, Inc. (AMED)

Previous Close$94.50
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$94.50

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %5.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.05.0
Revenue, $2466258927182854299731473304347036433825401642174428465048825126538256525934623165426869721375747952
Variable operating expenses, $m2219233024472569269728322974312332793443361537963985418543944613484450865341560858886183649268167157
Fixed operating expenses, $m1521651791942112292482692923173443734054404775185616096617177788449169941078
Total operating expenses, $m2371249526262763290830613222339235713760395941694390462548715131540556956002632566667027740878108235
Operating income, $m949493918986827872655748382511-5-23-44-68-94-124-157-195-237-283
EBITDA, $m1551571591611621631631631611591561521461401311211099578593711-18-50-88
Interest expense (income), $m1862656769727578818487919498102106111116120126131137143149155
Earnings before tax, $m76312824191470-9-18-30-42-57-73-91-111-134-160-188-220-255-294-337-385-439
Tax expense, $m21887542000000000000000000
Net income, $m55232118141050-9-18-30-42-57-73-91-111-134-160-188-220-255-294-337-385-439

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m1874196820662169227823922511263727692907305232053365353437103896409142954510473549725221548257566044
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m1874196820662169227823922511263727692907305232053365353437103896409142954510473549725221548257566044
Average production assets, $m1425149615711650173218191910200521062211232124382559268728222963311132673430360137813971416943784596
Working capital, $m-106-111-117-123-129-135-142-149-157-164-173-181-190-200-210-220-231-243-255-268-281-295-310-326-342
Total debt, $m1558161416731735180018691940201620952178226523572453255426602771288830113140327534173566372338874060
Total liabilities, $m1124118112401302136714351507158216611744183119232019212022262338245425772706284129833132328934543626
Total equity, $m7507878268689119571005105511071163122112821346141314841558163617181804189419892088219323022417
Debt-to-equity ratio0.6141.9791.9531.9281.9041.8821.8601.8401.8201.8011.7841.7671.7511.7351.7211.7071.6941.6811.6691.6571.6471.6361.6261.6171.608
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m55232118141050-9-18-30-42-57-73-91-111-134-160-188-220-255-294-337-385-439
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m6164677074778185909499104109114120126132139146153161169177186195
Funds from operations, $m116878788888787858176696152422915-2-21-42-67-94-125-160-199-243
Change in working capital, $m-5-5-6-6-6-6-7-7-7-8-8-9-9-10-10-10-11-12-12-13-13-14-15-16-16
Cash from operations, $m1219293949494939288837770615139259-9-30-54-81-111-145-184-227
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-61-64-67-70-74-77-81-85-90-94-99-104-109-114-120-126-132-139-146-153-161-169-177-186-195
New CAPEX, $m-68-71-75-79-82-87-91-95-100-105-111-116-122-128-134-141-148-156-163-171-180-189-199-208-219
Total CAPEX, $m-128-135-142-149-156-164-172-181-190-199-209-220-231-242-254-267-280-294-309-325-341-358-376-395-414
Free cash flow, $m-7-43-49-55-62-70-79-89-101-116-132-150-169-191-215-242-271-304-339-378-422-469-521-578-641
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0808896106116127139154171190211234259286316349385425469516568626688756
Retained Cash Flow, $m-104-37-39-41-43-46-48-50-53-55-58-61-64-67-71-74-78-82-86-90-95-99-104-110-115
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m489
Cash available for distribution, $m378000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m360000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100969289858177747066625955514844413835322926232119