investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG)

Previous Close$167.21
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$167.21

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-0.8-0.5-0.20.00.30.50.70.91.21.31.51.71.92.02.22.32.42.62.72.82.93.03.13.23.3
Revenue, $2025201420102010201620262041206020842112214421812221226623162369242724902557262927052787287429673065
Variable operating expenses, $m405403402402403405408412417422429436444453463474485498511526541557575593613
Fixed operating expenses, $m6256787367998669401020110712011303141415341664180619592126230625022715294631963468376240824429
Total operating expenses, $m1030108111381201126913451428151916181725184319702108225924222600279130003226347237374025433746755042
Operating income, $m9949338728097466816135424663873022111138-107-230-365-511-670-843-1032-1238-1463-1709-1977
EBITDA, $m10801018956894831766698627553475391301205101-11-133-265-408-565-735-921-1124-1346-1588-1853
Interest expense (income), $m105200199198198199200201203206209212216221225231236243249256264272281290300
Earnings before tax, $m89073367361154848241334026318193-2-103-213-332-461-601-753-919-1099-1296-1510-1744-1999-2277
Tax expense, $m2401981821651481301119271492500000000000000
Net income, $m64953549144640035230124819213268-2-103-213-332-461-601-753-919-1099-1296-1510-1744-1999-2277

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m769376547636763876597699775578297919802681488287844186128799900392239460971699891028010591109221127411646
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m769376547636763876597699775578297919802681488287844186128799900392239460971699891028010591109221127411646
Average production assets, $m2557254425382539254625592578260226322667270827542806286229252992306531443229332034173520363037473871
Working capital, $m-49-48-48-48-48-49-49-49-50-51-51-52-53-54-56-57-58-60-61-63-65-67-69-71-74
Total debt, $m4992496449524953496849965035508751505225531054075516563557665908606362296407659968037021725274987759
Total liabilities, $m5385535853455347536253895429548055435618570458015909602861596302645666226801699271967414764678928152
Total equity, $m2308229622912291229823102327234923762408244424862532258426402701276728382915299730843177327733823494
Debt-to-equity ratio1.1352.1742.1672.1612.1562.1512.1472.1442.1412.1392.1372.1362.1352.1352.1352.1352.1352.1362.1372.1382.1402.1412.1432.1442.146
Adjusted equity ratio0.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.300

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m64953549144640035230124819213268-2-103-213-332-461-601-753-919-1099-1296-1510-1744-1999-2277
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m86858585858585868788899092949597100102105108111114117121125
Funds from operations, $m73562157653148543738733427922015789-11-120-237-363-501-651-814-991-1185-1396-1627-1878-2152
Change in working capital, $m00000000-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-2-2-2
Cash from operations, $m73562057653148543738733527922015790-10-118-235-362-500-649-812-990-1183-1394-1624-1876-2150
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-86-85-85-85-85-85-85-86-87-88-89-90-92-94-95-97-100-102-105-108-111-114-117-121-125
New CAPEX, $m000-1-7-13-19-24-30-35-41-46-51-57-62-68-73-79-85-91-97-103-110-117-124
Total CAPEX, $m-86-85-85-85-92-98-104-110-117-123-130-136-143-150-158-165-173-181-190-198-208-217-227-238-249
Free cash flow, $m6495354914463933392832241639728-47-154-269-393-527-673-830-1002-1188-1391-1611-1852-2114-2399
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m00000000009882003204495887399021078127014781705195122192511
Retained Cash Flow, $m-199125-1-6-12-17-22-27-32-37-42-46-51-56-61-66-71-77-82-88-93-99-105-112
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1236
Cash available for distribution, $m168654549644538732726620213565000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.005.255.515.796.086.386.707.047.397.768.148.558.989.439.9010.3910.9111.4612.0312.6313.2713.9314.6315.3616.13
PV of cash for distribution, $m16064924223552882261691177131000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10010010010010010010010010010010098938677675747383023171286