Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
Revenue, $ | | 2025 | 2014 | 2010 | 2010 | 2016 | 2026 | 2041 | 2060 | 2084 | 2112 | 2144 | 2181 | 2221 | 2266 | 2316 | 2369 | 2427 | 2490 | 2557 | 2629 | 2705 | 2787 | 2874 | 2967 | 3065 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 405 | 403 | 402 | 402 | 403 | 405 | 408 | 412 | 417 | 422 | 429 | 436 | 444 | 453 | 463 | 474 | 485 | 498 | 511 | 526 | 541 | 557 | 575 | 593 | 613 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 625 | 678 | 736 | 799 | 866 | 940 | 1020 | 1107 | 1201 | 1303 | 1414 | 1534 | 1664 | 1806 | 1959 | 2126 | 2306 | 2502 | 2715 | 2946 | 3196 | 3468 | 3762 | 4082 | 4429 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 1030 | 1081 | 1138 | 1201 | 1269 | 1345 | 1428 | 1519 | 1618 | 1725 | 1843 | 1970 | 2108 | 2259 | 2422 | 2600 | 2791 | 3000 | 3226 | 3472 | 3737 | 4025 | 4337 | 4675 | 5042 |
Operating income, $m | | 994 | 933 | 872 | 809 | 746 | 681 | 613 | 542 | 466 | 387 | 302 | 211 | 113 | 8 | -107 | -230 | -365 | -511 | -670 | -843 | -1032 | -1238 | -1463 | -1709 | -1977 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1080 | 1018 | 956 | 894 | 831 | 766 | 698 | 627 | 553 | 475 | 391 | 301 | 205 | 101 | -11 | -133 | -265 | -408 | -565 | -735 | -921 | -1124 | -1346 | -1588 | -1853 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 105 | 200 | 199 | 198 | 198 | 199 | 200 | 201 | 203 | 206 | 209 | 212 | 216 | 221 | 225 | 231 | 236 | 243 | 249 | 256 | 264 | 272 | 281 | 290 | 300 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 890 | 733 | 673 | 611 | 548 | 482 | 413 | 340 | 263 | 181 | 93 | -2 | -103 | -213 | -332 | -461 | -601 | -753 | -919 | -1099 | -1296 | -1510 | -1744 | -1999 | -2277 |
Tax expense, $m | | 240 | 198 | 182 | 165 | 148 | 130 | 111 | 92 | 71 | 49 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 649 | 535 | 491 | 446 | 400 | 352 | 301 | 248 | 192 | 132 | 68 | -2 | -103 | -213 | -332 | -461 | -601 | -753 | -919 | -1099 | -1296 | -1510 | -1744 | -1999 | -2277 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 7693 | 7654 | 7636 | 7638 | 7659 | 7699 | 7755 | 7829 | 7919 | 8026 | 8148 | 8287 | 8441 | 8612 | 8799 | 9003 | 9223 | 9460 | 9716 | 9989 | 10280 | 10591 | 10922 | 11274 | 11646 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 7693 | 7654 | 7636 | 7638 | 7659 | 7699 | 7755 | 7829 | 7919 | 8026 | 8148 | 8287 | 8441 | 8612 | 8799 | 9003 | 9223 | 9460 | 9716 | 9989 | 10280 | 10591 | 10922 | 11274 | 11646 |
Average production assets, $m | | 2557 | 2544 | 2538 | 2539 | 2546 | 2559 | 2578 | 2602 | 2632 | 2667 | 2708 | 2754 | 2806 | 2862 | 2925 | 2992 | 3065 | 3144 | 3229 | 3320 | 3417 | 3520 | 3630 | 3747 | 3871 |
Working capital, $m | | -49 | -48 | -48 | -48 | -48 | -49 | -49 | -49 | -50 | -51 | -51 | -52 | -53 | -54 | -56 | -57 | -58 | -60 | -61 | -63 | -65 | -67 | -69 | -71 | -74 |
Total debt, $m | | 4992 | 4964 | 4952 | 4953 | 4968 | 4996 | 5035 | 5087 | 5150 | 5225 | 5310 | 5407 | 5516 | 5635 | 5766 | 5908 | 6063 | 6229 | 6407 | 6599 | 6803 | 7021 | 7252 | 7498 | 7759 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 5385 | 5358 | 5345 | 5347 | 5362 | 5389 | 5429 | 5480 | 5543 | 5618 | 5704 | 5801 | 5909 | 6028 | 6159 | 6302 | 6456 | 6622 | 6801 | 6992 | 7196 | 7414 | 7646 | 7892 | 8152 |
Total equity, $m | | 2308 | 2296 | 2291 | 2291 | 2298 | 2310 | 2327 | 2349 | 2376 | 2408 | 2444 | 2486 | 2532 | 2584 | 2640 | 2701 | 2767 | 2838 | 2915 | 2997 | 3084 | 3177 | 3277 | 3382 | 3494 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.135 | 2.174 | 2.167 | 2.161 | 2.156 | 2.151 | 2.147 | 2.144 | 2.141 | 2.139 | 2.137 | 2.136 | 2.135 | 2.135 | 2.135 | 2.135 | 2.135 | 2.136 | 2.137 | 2.138 | 2.140 | 2.141 | 2.143 | 2.144 | 2.146 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 649 | 535 | 491 | 446 | 400 | 352 | 301 | 248 | 192 | 132 | 68 | -2 | -103 | -213 | -332 | -461 | -601 | -753 | -919 | -1099 | -1296 | -1510 | -1744 | -1999 | -2277 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 86 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 92 | 94 | 95 | 97 | 100 | 102 | 105 | 108 | 111 | 114 | 117 | 121 | 125 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 735 | 621 | 576 | 531 | 485 | 437 | 387 | 334 | 279 | 220 | 157 | 89 | -11 | -120 | -237 | -363 | -501 | -651 | -814 | -991 | -1185 | -1396 | -1627 | -1878 | -2152 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 735 | 620 | 576 | 531 | 485 | 437 | 387 | 335 | 279 | 220 | 157 | 90 | -10 | -118 | -235 | -362 | -500 | -649 | -812 | -990 | -1183 | -1394 | -1624 | -1876 | -2150 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -86 | -85 | -85 | -85 | -85 | -85 | -85 | -86 | -87 | -88 | -89 | -90 | -92 | -94 | -95 | -97 | -100 | -102 | -105 | -108 | -111 | -114 | -117 | -121 | -125 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -7 | -13 | -19 | -24 | -30 | -35 | -41 | -46 | -51 | -57 | -62 | -68 | -73 | -79 | -85 | -91 | -97 | -103 | -110 | -117 | -124 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -86 | -85 | -85 | -85 | -92 | -98 | -104 | -110 | -117 | -123 | -130 | -136 | -143 | -150 | -158 | -165 | -173 | -181 | -190 | -198 | -208 | -217 | -227 | -238 | -249 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 649 | 535 | 491 | 446 | 393 | 339 | 283 | 224 | 163 | 97 | 28 | -47 | -154 | -269 | -393 | -527 | -673 | -830 | -1002 | -1188 | -1391 | -1611 | -1852 | -2114 | -2399 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 88 | 200 | 320 | 449 | 588 | 739 | 902 | 1078 | 1270 | 1478 | 1705 | 1951 | 2219 | 2511 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -199 | 12 | 5 | -1 | -6 | -12 | -17 | -22 | -27 | -32 | -37 | -42 | -46 | -51 | -56 | -61 | -66 | -71 | -77 | -82 | -88 | -93 | -99 | -105 | -112 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 1236 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1686 | 545 | 496 | 445 | 387 | 327 | 266 | 202 | 135 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.51 | 5.79 | 6.08 | 6.38 | 6.70 | 7.04 | 7.39 | 7.76 | 8.14 | 8.55 | 8.98 | 9.43 | 9.90 | 10.39 | 10.91 | 11.46 | 12.03 | 12.63 | 13.27 | 13.93 | 14.63 | 15.36 | 16.13 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1606 | 492 | 422 | 355 | 288 | 226 | 169 | 117 | 71 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 93 | 86 | 77 | 67 | 57 | 47 | 38 | 30 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 6 |