investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Amarin Corporation plc (AMRN)

Previous Close$13.25
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$13.25

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Amarin Corporation plc is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in cardiovascular therapeutics, with its flagship product Vascepa (icosapent ethyl) as the cornerstone of its revenue model. The company operates in the highly competitive pharmaceutical sector, focusing on omega-3 fatty acid-based treatments for patients with elevated cardiovascular risk. Vascepa, an FDA-approved drug, targets triglyceride reduction and cardiovascular risk mitigation, positioning Amarin in a niche yet growing segment of preventive cardiology. Despite facing generic competition and pricing pressures, the company maintains a presence in the U.S. and select international markets through strategic partnerships and direct commercialization efforts. Amarin’s market position hinges on clinical differentiation, though its reliance on a single product exposes it to significant revenue concentration risk. The company continues to explore label expansions and new indications to diversify its portfolio and strengthen its foothold in the cardiovascular space.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Amarin reported revenue of $228.6 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales momentum amid competitive and regulatory headwinds. The company posted a net loss of $82.2 million, with diluted EPS of -$0.20, underscoring ongoing profitability struggles. Operating cash flow was negative at $31.0 million, indicating persistent cash burn despite minimal capital expenditures, highlighting inefficiencies in converting revenue to sustainable cash generation.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Amarin’s earnings power remains constrained by high operating costs and limited revenue diversification. The absence of capital expenditures suggests a focus on preserving liquidity, but negative operating cash flow raises concerns about capital efficiency. The company’s ability to improve margins hinges on cost optimization and potential revenue stabilization, though its single-product reliance complicates long-term earnings sustainability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Amarin’s balance sheet shows $121.0 million in cash and equivalents, providing a limited liquidity buffer against ongoing operational losses. Total debt stands at $7.7 million, indicating a relatively low leverage position. However, the consistent cash burn and lack of profitability raise questions about the company’s ability to fund operations without additional capital raises or strategic shifts.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth trends for Amarin remain muted, with revenue pressures likely to persist due to market competition. The company does not pay dividends, reflecting its focus on reinvesting limited resources into commercialization and potential R&D initiatives. Future growth may depend on successful pipeline development or strategic partnerships, though near-term prospects appear challenging.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Amarin’s valuation reflects market skepticism about its ability to achieve sustainable profitability. The negative EPS and cash flow metrics suggest subdued investor confidence, with the stock likely pricing in significant execution risks. Market expectations remain low, hinging on potential clinical or regulatory catalysts to revive growth prospects.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Amarin’s strategic advantages lie in its established cardiovascular product and FDA-approved label, though generic competition erodes this edge. The outlook remains uncertain, with success contingent on expanding Vascepa’s market reach or advancing new therapies. Cost management and strategic partnerships will be critical to navigating near-term challenges and securing long-term viability.

Sources

10-K filing, company financial statements

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount