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Intrinsic Value of Archrock, Inc. (AROC)

Previous Close$23.78
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$23.78

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Archrock, Inc. operates as a leading provider of natural gas compression services in the U.S., catering primarily to energy producers and midstream operators. The company specializes in leasing and maintaining compression equipment, which is critical for transporting natural gas through pipelines. Its revenue model is driven by long-term contracts, ensuring stable cash flows, while its aftermarket services segment provides recurring revenue through maintenance and parts sales. Archrock holds a strong market position due to its extensive fleet and technical expertise, serving key shale basins like the Permian and Marcellus. The company benefits from the growing demand for natural gas as a transitional fuel, positioning it strategically within the energy infrastructure sector. Its focus on operational efficiency and customer relationships further solidifies its competitive edge in a capital-intensive industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Archrock reported revenue of $1.16 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $172.2 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 14.9%. The company generated $429.6 million in operating cash flow, demonstrating robust cash conversion. Capital expenditures totaled $359 million, indicating continued investment in fleet maintenance and growth. These metrics highlight Archrock's ability to balance profitability with reinvestment needs in a cyclical industry.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Archrock's diluted EPS of $1.05 underscores its earnings power, supported by high utilization rates and contract stability. The company's capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate significant operating cash flow relative to its debt levels. However, the capital-intensive nature of its business requires disciplined allocation to maintain fleet competitiveness and service quality.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Archrock's balance sheet shows $4.4 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $2.21 billion, reflecting a leveraged position typical for infrastructure-heavy firms. The company's ability to service debt is supported by stable cash flows from long-term contracts. Investors should monitor debt covenants and refinancing risks, though its asset-backed financing structure provides some resilience.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Archrock's growth is tied to natural gas demand, with opportunities arising from LNG exports and domestic consumption. The company paid a dividend of $0.68 per share, yielding approximately 3.5%, appealing to income-focused investors. Future dividend sustainability will depend on cash flow stability and leverage management, given the sector's cyclicality.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Archrock trades at a P/E multiple of around 16x based on FY 2024 earnings, aligning with midstream peers. Market expectations hinge on natural gas infrastructure demand, with potential upside from increased drilling activity or regulatory support for gas as a cleaner energy source. Valuation remains sensitive to commodity price volatility and interest rate trends.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Archrock's strategic advantages include its scale, technical expertise, and contract-backed revenue streams. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with growth driven by gas infrastructure needs but tempered by macroeconomic uncertainty. The company's focus on operational excellence and customer partnerships positions it well to navigate industry cycles while capitalizing on long-term energy transition trends.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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