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Intrinsic Value of Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)

Previous Close$50.66
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$50.66

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. operates as a leading full-line sporting goods and outdoor recreation retailer in the United States, serving a broad customer base through its extensive network of stores and e-commerce platform. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of sports equipment, apparel, footwear, and outdoor gear, catering to both casual enthusiasts and serious athletes. Its product mix spans categories such as fitness, team sports, hunting, fishing, and camping, positioning it as a one-stop destination for recreational needs. Academy Sports differentiates itself through a value-oriented pricing strategy, private-label offerings, and a localized merchandising approach tailored to regional preferences. The company competes in a fragmented industry against national chains like Dick’s Sporting Goods and regional players, leveraging its strong presence in the Southern and Midwestern U.S. to maintain market share. Its omnichannel strategy integrates in-store experiences with digital capabilities, enhancing customer engagement and driving repeat business. With a focus on affordability and accessibility, Academy Sports targets middle-income households, reinforcing its reputation as a dependable retailer for quality sporting goods.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Academy Sports reported revenue of $5.93 billion for FY 2025, with net income of $418.4 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 7.1%. Diluted EPS stood at $5.73, demonstrating solid profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $528.1 million, though capital expenditures of $200.4 million indicate ongoing investments in store upgrades and digital infrastructure. The company’s efficiency metrics suggest disciplined cost management and operational execution.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is underscored by its ability to convert revenue into net income at a healthy margin, supported by a lean operating model. Capital efficiency is evident in its cash flow generation, which funds growth initiatives while maintaining financial flexibility. With a focus on inventory turnover and working capital optimization, Academy Sports balances reinvestment needs with shareholder returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Academy Sports ended FY 2025 with $288.9 million in cash and equivalents, against total debt of $1.79 billion. The debt level, while significant, is manageable given the company’s cash flow profile. Liquidity appears adequate, with no immediate refinancing risks. The balance sheet reflects a conservative approach to leverage, ensuring resilience in cyclical downturns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth has been steady, driven by store expansion and e-commerce adoption. The company paid a dividend of $0.44 per share, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Future growth may hinge on geographic expansion and private-label penetration, alongside macroeconomic factors influencing consumer discretionary spending.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E multiple derived from its $5.73 EPS, Academy Sports’ valuation reflects market expectations of mid-single-digit growth. Investors likely weigh its regional strength against competitive pressures and broader retail sector trends. The stock’s performance will depend on execution in margin preservation and market share gains.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Academy Sports benefits from a loyal customer base, value-focused positioning, and a diversified product portfolio. Its outlook is cautiously optimistic, with opportunities in private-label expansion and digital engagement. Risks include inflationary pressures and competition, but the company’s regional dominance and operational discipline provide a solid foundation for sustained performance.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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