investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)

Previous Close$7.59
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$7.59

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapies for autoimmune diseases, particularly lupus nephritis. Its flagship product, LUPKYNIS (voclosporin), is an FDA-approved oral calcineurin inhibitor for treating adults with active lupus nephritis, a severe complication of systemic lupus erythematosus. The company operates in the highly specialized and competitive autoimmune therapeutics market, where differentiation hinges on clinical efficacy, safety profiles, and patient accessibility. Aurinia’s revenue model is primarily driven by direct sales of LUPKYNIS in the U.S., supplemented by strategic partnerships for international commercialization. The company targets a niche but growing patient population, leveraging its first-mover advantage in lupus nephritis treatment. Market positioning is reinforced by ongoing clinical trials and lifecycle management strategies to expand LUPKYNIS’s label. Aurinia competes against larger biopharma firms but maintains a focused approach, emphasizing unmet medical needs and real-world evidence to solidify its standing in nephrology and rheumatology markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Aurinia reported revenue of $235.1 million for FY 2024, reflecting its commercial execution with LUPKYNIS. Net income stood at $5.8 million, translating to a diluted EPS of $0.0393, indicating marginal profitability. Operating cash flow was $44.4 million, supported by revenue growth and controlled expenses. Capital expenditures were minimal at -$281,000, suggesting efficient capital deployment without significant reinvestment needs.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is underpinned by LUPKYNIS’s commercial traction, though profitability remains modest. Capital efficiency is evident in its low capex and positive operating cash flow, enabling self-sustainability. However, reliance on a single product underscores the need for pipeline diversification to enhance long-term earnings stability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Aurinia’s balance sheet shows $83.4 million in cash and equivalents against $79.4 million in total debt, indicating a manageable leverage position. The near parity between liquidity and debt suggests financial flexibility but warrants monitoring given the capital-intensive nature of biopharma R&D and commercialization.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is driven by LUPKYNIS adoption and potential label expansions, though the absence of dividends aligns with the company’s reinvestment strategy. Future trends hinge on clinical pipeline progress and international market penetration, with no current dividend policy reflecting a focus on growth over shareholder payouts.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices Aurinia based on LUPKYNIS’s peak sales potential and pipeline milestones. Valuation metrics should account for its niche focus and binary outcomes typical of biopharma, with investor sentiment tied to execution risks and competitive dynamics.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Aurinia’s strategic edge lies in its first-mover status in lupus nephritis and targeted commercialization. The outlook depends on sustaining LUPKYNIS uptake, advancing pipeline assets, and navigating reimbursement challenges. Success in these areas could solidify its position as a leader in autoimmune therapeutics.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount