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Intrinsic Value of Avista Corporation (AVA)

Previous Close$38.36
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$38.36

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Avista Corporation operates as a regulated utility company primarily engaged in the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas. Serving customers in the Pacific Northwest, the company derives its revenue from regulated operations, ensuring stable cash flows through long-term rate structures approved by state commissions. Avista’s business model is anchored in providing essential energy services, with a focus on reliability, sustainability, and regulatory compliance. The company operates in a highly regulated industry, which mitigates competitive risks but subjects it to regulatory oversight on pricing and investments. Avista has strategically positioned itself as a regional leader in clean energy, investing in hydroelectric, wind, and other renewable sources to align with evolving environmental policies. Its market position is reinforced by a captive customer base and infrastructure investments that support grid modernization and decarbonization goals. The utility sector’s defensive characteristics provide Avista with resilience against economic cycles, though growth is tempered by regulatory lag and capital intensity.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Avista reported revenue of $1.94 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $180 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 9.3%. The company’s diluted EPS stood at $2.28, supported by stable utility operations. Operating cash flow of $534 million underscores strong cash generation, though capital expenditures of $533 million highlight the capital-intensive nature of the business, leaving minimal free cash flow after investments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Avista’s earnings are driven by its regulated utility operations, which provide predictable returns on equity. The company’s capital efficiency is constrained by high infrastructure costs, with significant reinvestment required to maintain and upgrade its energy assets. Regulatory mechanisms, such as rate base growth and cost recovery, help sustain earnings power despite the capital-heavy business model.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Avista’s balance sheet shows $30 million in cash against total debt of $3.12 billion, indicating a leveraged position typical for utilities. The debt load supports ongoing infrastructure investments but requires careful management to maintain credit ratings. The company’s financial health is underpinned by stable cash flows from regulated operations, though interest coverage remains a key monitorable.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Avista’s growth is tied to rate base expansion and renewable energy investments, with modest annual growth expectations. The company pays a consistent dividend, with a $1.91 per share payout in FY 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. Dividend sustainability is supported by earnings stability, though payout ratios must align with regulatory capital requirements.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Avista’s valuation reflects its regulated utility profile, trading at multiples consistent with peers. Market expectations are anchored in steady earnings growth, regulatory outcomes, and execution on clean energy transitions. The stock’s defensive characteristics appeal to income-focused investors, though upside may be limited by slow-growth industry dynamics.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Avista’s strategic advantages include its regulated monopoly status, renewable energy investments, and regional focus. The outlook remains stable, with growth driven by regulatory approvals and decarbonization initiatives. Risks include regulatory delays and rising interest rates, but the company’s essential service role provides long-term resilience.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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