investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of American Vanguard Corporation (AVD)

Previous Close$3.94
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$3.94

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

American Vanguard Corporation operates in the agricultural chemicals sector, specializing in the development, manufacturing, and marketing of specialty crop protection and soil health products. The company serves a diverse customer base, including farmers, distributors, and pest control professionals, with a focus on sustainable and precision agriculture solutions. Its product portfolio includes insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, and soil fumigants, catering to both conventional and organic farming practices. American Vanguard has carved a niche in the mid-tier agrochemical market, leveraging its expertise in formulation chemistry and regulatory compliance to compete against larger multinational players. The company’s strategic acquisitions and partnerships have expanded its geographic reach and product offerings, reinforcing its position as a reliable provider of crop protection solutions. While it faces intense competition from industry giants, its agility and customer-centric approach allow it to maintain a strong foothold in key agricultural markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2023, American Vanguard reported revenue of $579.4 million, reflecting its steady market presence. However, net income stood at $7.5 million, with diluted EPS of $0.26, indicating margin pressures likely due to input cost inflation or competitive pricing. Operating cash flow was negative at -$58.7 million, partly offset by capital expenditures of -$12.1 million, suggesting potential working capital challenges or timing-related cash outflows.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s modest net income highlights subdued earnings power in the fiscal year, possibly constrained by higher operational costs or lower pricing leverage. Capital efficiency metrics are not explicitly provided, but the negative operating cash flow raises questions about near-term liquidity management. Further analysis of asset turnover or ROIC would be needed to assess capital allocation effectiveness.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

American Vanguard’s balance sheet shows $11.4 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $162.1 million, indicating a leveraged position. The debt level warrants monitoring, especially given the negative operating cash flow. Shareholders’ equity and leverage ratios would provide additional context, but the current data suggests a need for improved liquidity management to sustain financial flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue stability contrasts with volatile profitability, underscoring potential cyclical or operational headwinds. The company paid a dividend of $0.12 per share, signaling a commitment to shareholder returns despite earnings volatility. Growth prospects may hinge on product innovation, market expansion, or cost optimization, but the current financials do not indicate robust organic growth momentum.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a diluted EPS of $0.26, the company’s valuation multiples would depend on market expectations for margin recovery and cash flow improvement. Investors may price in a turnaround scenario if operational efficiencies materialize, but the current earnings and cash flow performance suggest cautious optimism at best. Peer comparisons would help contextualize its valuation relative to sector benchmarks.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

American Vanguard’s strengths lie in its specialized agrochemical portfolio and regulatory expertise, which provide a competitive edge in niche markets. However, its outlook is tempered by financial leverage and cash flow challenges. Strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency, reduce debt, or expand higher-margin products could improve its trajectory, but execution risks remain a key consideration for stakeholders.

Sources

10-K filing for FY 2023

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount