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Intrinsic Value of Braskem S.A. (BAK)

Previous Close$3.56
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$3.56

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Braskem S.A. is a leading petrochemical company operating primarily in Brazil, the United States, Mexico, and Germany. The company specializes in the production of thermoplastic resins, such as polyethylene, polypropylene, and PVC, which serve diverse industries including packaging, automotive, construction, and consumer goods. Braskem’s vertically integrated model spans from raw material sourcing—leveraging sugarcane-based ethanol for green polyethylene—to downstream polymer distribution, reinforcing its cost leadership in Latin America. The company holds a dominant position in the Americas, supported by its large-scale production facilities and strategic partnerships with global energy players. Despite cyclical industry pressures, Braskem maintains competitive advantages through innovation in renewable chemicals and operational efficiency. Its market positioning is further strengthened by its focus on sustainability, particularly in bio-based polymers, aligning with global decarbonization trends.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Braskem reported revenue of R$77.4 billion for the period, reflecting its scale in the petrochemical sector. However, net income stood at a loss of R$11.3 billion, with diluted EPS of -R$28.4, indicating significant margin pressures from volatile feedstock costs and macroeconomic headwinds. Operating cash flow of R$2.4 billion suggests some operational resilience, though capital expenditures of R$3.8 billion highlight ongoing investments in capacity and sustainability initiatives.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s negative earnings underscore challenges in translating revenue into profitability amid high input costs and currency fluctuations. Capital efficiency remains strained, with substantial capex outpacing operating cash flow, reflecting Braskem’s focus on long-term growth and green chemistry projects. The balance between reinvestment and near-term returns will be critical for restoring earnings power.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Braskem’s financial health is pressured by high leverage, with total debt of R$73.7 billion against cash and equivalents of R$14.9 billion. The elevated debt load, coupled with cyclical industry risks, raises concerns about liquidity and refinancing capacity. However, the company’s asset base and market position provide some cushion for navigating downturns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth prospects are tied to expansion in bio-based polymers and geographic diversification, though near-term performance is likely constrained by industry cyclicality. The nominal dividend of R$0.02 per share reflects conservative capital returns, prioritizing debt management and reinvestment over shareholder payouts.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Market valuation likely discounts Braskem’s earnings volatility and leverage, with investors weighing its long-term sustainability initiatives against near-term financial strain. The stock’s performance will hinge on feedstock price trends, demand recovery, and progress in deleveraging.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Braskem’s strengths lie in its integrated operations, renewable polymer leadership, and regional market dominance. The outlook remains cautious due to macroeconomic and industry-specific risks, but strategic investments in green chemistry could position the company for recovery as markets stabilize.

Sources

Company filings, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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