investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Southern California Bancorp (BCAL)

Previous Close$16.43
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$16.43

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Southern California Bancorp operates as a regional bank holding company, primarily serving small to mid-sized businesses, professionals, and individuals in Southern California. Its core revenue model is driven by traditional banking services, including commercial and retail lending, deposit accounts, and treasury management. The bank differentiates itself through localized decision-making and relationship-based banking, catering to the unique needs of its regional clientele. In a competitive landscape dominated by national banks, BCAL leverages its community-focused approach to build loyalty among local businesses, particularly in niche sectors like healthcare, professional services, and real estate. Its market position is reinforced by a conservative underwriting philosophy and a focus on credit quality, which helps mitigate risks associated with economic cycles. While not a market leader in scale, BCAL maintains a stable presence by balancing growth with prudent risk management, positioning it as a reliable partner for regional borrowers and depositors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Southern California Bancorp reported revenue of $127.8 million, with net income of $5.4 million, translating to diluted EPS of $0.22. Operating cash flow stood at $50.3 million, reflecting solid core earnings generation. Capital expenditures were minimal at -$552,000, indicating a lean operational structure. The bank's efficiency metrics suggest a focus on cost discipline, though further details on net interest margin or non-interest income would provide deeper insight into profitability drivers.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's earnings power appears modest, with diluted EPS of $0.22 and net income representing approximately 4.3% of revenue. The operating cash flow of $50.3 million significantly exceeds net income, indicating strong cash conversion. However, without granular data on return on assets (ROA) or return on equity (ROE), assessing capital efficiency remains limited. The low capital expenditure suggests a asset-light model, typical for regional banks.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Southern California Bancorp maintains a conservative balance sheet, with $60.5 million in cash and equivalents against $88.0 million in total debt, implying a manageable leverage position. The debt-to-equity ratio is unclear without total equity figures, but the liquidity position appears adequate. The absence of dividend payouts suggests a focus on retaining capital for growth or regulatory requirements, common for smaller banks.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth trends are not explicitly provided, but the lack of dividends indicates reinvestment priorities. The bank's strategy likely emphasizes organic loan and deposit growth, supported by its regional focus. Without historical comparisons, it's challenging to assess trajectory, but the modest net income suggests incremental rather than aggressive expansion. Dividend policy remains inactive, aligning with growth-focused regional banks.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a diluted EPS of $0.22 and approximately 24.2 million shares outstanding, the company's earnings base is relatively small. Market expectations would hinge on loan portfolio quality, interest rate sensitivity, and regional economic conditions. Valuation multiples are unavailable without share price data, but the bank's niche positioning may appeal to investors seeking localized exposure.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Southern California Bancorp's strategic advantages lie in its community banking model, which fosters customer loyalty and mitigates competition from larger institutions. The outlook depends on regional economic resilience and the bank's ability to maintain credit quality. Prudent risk management and a focus on relationship banking could sustain steady growth, though macroeconomic headwinds like rising rates may pressure margins.

Sources

Company filings (CIK: 0001795815), inferred from provided financial data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount