investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

Previous Close$10.03
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$10.03

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Bloomin' Brands, Inc. operates as a leading casual dining restaurant company, primarily in the United States, with a growing international presence. The company owns and operates well-known brands such as Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba's Italian Grill, Bonefish Grill, and Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar. Its revenue model is driven by both company-owned restaurants and franchised locations, with a focus on full-service dining experiences that emphasize quality food, hospitality, and value. The company competes in the highly fragmented casual dining sector, where differentiation through brand strength, menu innovation, and operational efficiency is critical. Bloomin' Brands leverages its scale to optimize supply chain costs and marketing spend, while its diversified brand portfolio mitigates risks associated with single-concept reliance. The company maintains a competitive position through its strong brand recognition, particularly with Outback Steakhouse, which remains a dominant player in the steakhouse segment. International expansion, particularly in Brazil, provides additional growth opportunities outside the saturated U.S. market.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, Bloomin' Brands reported revenue of $3.95 billion, reflecting its scale in the casual dining industry. However, the company posted a net loss of $128 million, with diluted EPS of -$1.49, indicating profitability challenges. Operating cash flow stood at $228 million, while capital expenditures were $221 million, suggesting disciplined reinvestment in the business. The negative net income highlights margin pressures, likely from inflationary costs and competitive pricing dynamics.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's earnings power appears constrained, as evidenced by its negative net income and EPS. Operating cash flow remains positive but may not fully cover capital expenditures and debt obligations. Bloomin' Brands' capital efficiency is under scrutiny given its high total debt of $2.27 billion, which could limit financial flexibility. The balance between reinvestment and deleveraging will be critical for improving returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Bloomin' Brands' balance sheet shows $70 million in cash and equivalents against $2.27 billion in total debt, indicating significant leverage. The debt load may constrain liquidity and increase interest expense, particularly in a higher-rate environment. The company's ability to manage debt maturities while funding operations and growth initiatives will be key to maintaining financial stability.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Despite profitability challenges, Bloomin' Brands maintained a dividend of $0.96 per share, signaling commitment to shareholder returns. Growth prospects may depend on international expansion and same-store sales improvements, as the U.S. casual dining market remains competitive. The dividend payout appears aggressive relative to earnings, suggesting reliance on cash flow or balance sheet capacity to sustain it.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market appears to price Bloomin' Brands with skepticism, given its negative earnings and high leverage. Investors likely await clearer signs of margin recovery and debt reduction before assigning higher multiples. Valuation may hinge on the company's ability to demonstrate sustainable profitability and free cash flow generation in future periods.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Bloomin' Brands benefits from strong brand equity and a diversified portfolio, but macroeconomic and competitive pressures pose challenges. The outlook depends on operational improvements, cost management, and prudent capital allocation. Success in international markets and digital initiatives could provide upside, while high debt remains a risk. The company must balance shareholder returns with financial health to navigate industry headwinds.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount