Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -4.8 | -4.3 | -3.8 | -3.4 | -3.0 | -2.6 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
Revenue, $ | | 13516 | 12934 | 12437 | 12014 | 11655 | 11354 | 11104 | 10899 | 10736 | 10609 | 10517 | 10457 | 10426 | 10423 | 10446 | 10494 | 10566 | 10661 | 10779 | 10920 | 11082 | 11266 | 11472 | 11700 | 11951 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 11273 | 10787 | 10372 | 10019 | 9721 | 9469 | 9261 | 9090 | 8954 | 8848 | 8771 | 8721 | 8695 | 8693 | 8712 | 8752 | 8812 | 8891 | 8990 | 9107 | 9242 | 9396 | 9568 | 9758 | 9967 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 1300 | 1410 | 1530 | 1660 | 1801 | 1954 | 2121 | 2301 | 2496 | 2709 | 2939 | 3189 | 3460 | 3754 | 4073 | 4419 | 4795 | 5202 | 5644 | 6124 | 6645 | 7210 | 7822 | 8487 | 9209 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 12573 | 12197 | 11902 | 11679 | 11522 | 11423 | 11382 | 11391 | 11450 | 11557 | 11710 | 11910 | 12155 | 12447 | 12785 | 13171 | 13607 | 14093 | 14634 | 15231 | 15887 | 16606 | 17390 | 18245 | 19176 |
Operating income, $m | | 944 | 737 | 534 | 334 | 133 | -70 | -277 | -492 | -714 | -948 | -1193 | -1453 | -1729 | -2024 | -2339 | -2677 | -3041 | -3432 | -3855 | -4312 | -4805 | -5339 | -5918 | -6545 | -7225 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1528 | 1292 | 1066 | 845 | 627 | 409 | 189 | -35 | -266 | -506 | -757 | -1020 | -1299 | -1595 | -1910 | -2248 | -2609 | -2998 | -3417 | -3868 | -4356 | -4884 | -5455 | -6073 | -6744 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 157 | 203 | 188 | 175 | 164 | 155 | 147 | 140 | 135 | 131 | 128 | 125 | 124 | 123 | 123 | 123 | 125 | 126 | 129 | 132 | 136 | 140 | 145 | 150 | 156 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 787 | 534 | 346 | 159 | -31 | -224 | -424 | -632 | -849 | -1078 | -1321 | -1578 | -1853 | -2146 | -2462 | -2800 | -3165 | -3559 | -3984 | -4444 | -4941 | -5479 | -6063 | -6695 | -7381 |
Tax expense, $m | | 212 | 144 | 94 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 574 | 390 | 253 | 116 | -31 | -224 | -424 | -632 | -849 | -1078 | -1321 | -1578 | -1853 | -2146 | -2462 | -2800 | -3165 | -3559 | -3984 | -4444 | -4941 | -5479 | -6063 | -6695 | -7381 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 14598 | 13969 | 13432 | 12975 | 12588 | 12263 | 11992 | 11771 | 11594 | 11458 | 11359 | 11293 | 11260 | 11257 | 11281 | 11333 | 11411 | 11514 | 11642 | 11793 | 11969 | 12167 | 12390 | 12636 | 12907 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 14598 | 13969 | 13432 | 12975 | 12588 | 12263 | 11992 | 11771 | 11594 | 11458 | 11359 | 11293 | 11260 | 11257 | 11281 | 11333 | 11411 | 11514 | 11642 | 11793 | 11969 | 12167 | 12390 | 12636 | 12907 |
Average production assets, $m | | 7002 | 6700 | 6442 | 6223 | 6037 | 5881 | 5752 | 5646 | 5561 | 5496 | 5448 | 5417 | 5401 | 5399 | 5411 | 5436 | 5473 | 5523 | 5584 | 5656 | 5740 | 5836 | 5943 | 6061 | 6190 |
Working capital, $m | | 1041 | 996 | 958 | 925 | 897 | 874 | 855 | 839 | 827 | 817 | 810 | 805 | 803 | 803 | 804 | 808 | 814 | 821 | 830 | 841 | 853 | 867 | 883 | 901 | 920 |
Total debt, $m | | 5073 | 4695 | 4373 | 4099 | 3867 | 3672 | 3509 | 3377 | 3271 | 3189 | 3129 | 3090 | 3070 | 3068 | 3083 | 3114 | 3161 | 3222 | 3299 | 3390 | 3495 | 3614 | 3748 | 3896 | 4058 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 8759 | 8381 | 8059 | 7785 | 7553 | 7358 | 7195 | 7063 | 6957 | 6875 | 6815 | 6776 | 6756 | 6754 | 6769 | 6800 | 6847 | 6908 | 6985 | 7076 | 7181 | 7300 | 7434 | 7582 | 7744 |
Total equity, $m | | 5839 | 5587 | 5373 | 5190 | 5035 | 4905 | 4797 | 4708 | 4638 | 4583 | 4543 | 4517 | 4504 | 4503 | 4513 | 4533 | 4564 | 4606 | 4657 | 4717 | 4787 | 4867 | 4956 | 5055 | 5163 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.673 | 0.908 | 0.874 | 0.843 | 0.814 | 0.788 | 0.765 | 0.745 | 0.728 | 0.714 | 0.702 | 0.693 | 0.686 | 0.682 | 0.680 | 0.680 | 0.682 | 0.686 | 0.692 | 0.699 | 0.708 | 0.718 | 0.729 | 0.742 | 0.755 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 574 | 390 | 253 | 116 | -31 | -224 | -424 | -632 | -849 | -1078 | -1321 | -1578 | -1853 | -2146 | -2462 | -2800 | -3165 | -3559 | -3984 | -4444 | -4941 | -5479 | -6063 | -6695 | -7381 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 584 | 556 | 532 | 511 | 494 | 479 | 467 | 456 | 448 | 441 | 436 | 432 | 430 | 429 | 428 | 429 | 431 | 434 | 438 | 443 | 449 | 456 | 463 | 472 | 481 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1158 | 945 | 785 | 627 | 463 | 255 | 43 | -175 | -401 | -637 | -884 | -1146 | -1423 | -1718 | -2033 | -2371 | -2734 | -3125 | -3546 | -4000 | -4492 | -5024 | -5599 | -6223 | -6900 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -52 | -45 | -38 | -33 | -28 | -23 | -19 | -16 | -13 | -10 | -7 | -5 | -2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1210 | 990 | 823 | 660 | 491 | 278 | 62 | -160 | -389 | -627 | -877 | -1141 | -1420 | -1718 | -2035 | -2375 | -2739 | -3132 | -3555 | -4011 | -4504 | -5038 | -5615 | -6241 | -6919 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -584 | -556 | -532 | -511 | -494 | -479 | -467 | -456 | -448 | -441 | -436 | -432 | -430 | -429 | -428 | -429 | -431 | -434 | -438 | -443 | -449 | -456 | -463 | -472 | -481 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12 | -25 | -37 | -49 | -61 | -73 | -84 | -95 | -107 | -118 | -130 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -584 | -556 | -532 | -511 | -494 | -479 | -467 | -456 | -448 | -441 | -436 | -432 | -430 | -429 | -440 | -454 | -469 | -484 | -499 | -516 | -533 | -551 | -570 | -590 | -611 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 627 | 435 | 291 | 149 | -3 | -201 | -405 | -616 | -837 | -1069 | -1313 | -1573 | -1850 | -2146 | -2475 | -2829 | -3208 | -3616 | -4054 | -4527 | -5037 | -5589 | -6185 | -6831 | -7530 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 97 | 318 | 545 | 780 | 1025 | 1282 | 1553 | 1840 | 2145 | 2485 | 2850 | 3239 | 3657 | 4105 | 4588 | 5108 | 5668 | 6274 | 6929 | 7638 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -516 | 252 | 215 | 183 | 155 | 130 | 108 | 88 | 71 | 55 | 40 | 26 | 13 | 1 | -10 | -21 | -31 | -41 | -51 | -61 | -70 | -80 | -89 | -99 | -108 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 505 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 616 | 636 | 463 | 295 | 121 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 587 | 575 | 395 | 237 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 93 | 85 | 75 | 63 | 51 | 40 | 30 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |