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Intrinsic Value of BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)

Previous Close$31.79
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$31.79

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-4.8-4.3-3.8-3.4-3.0-2.6-2.2-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.00.20.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.82.02.1
Revenue, $13516129341243712014116551135411104108991073610609105171045710426104231044610494105661066110779109201108211266114721170011951
Variable operating expenses, $m11273107871037210019972194699261909089548848877187218695869387128752881288918990910792429396956897589967
Fixed operating expenses, $m1300141015301660180119542121230124962709293931893460375440734419479552025644612466457210782284879209
Total operating expenses, $m12573121971190211679115221142311382113911145011557117101191012155124471278513171136071409314634152311588716606173901824519176
Operating income, $m944737534334133-70-277-492-714-948-1193-1453-1729-2024-2339-2677-3041-3432-3855-4312-4805-5339-5918-6545-7225
EBITDA, $m152812921066845627409189-35-266-506-757-1020-1299-1595-1910-2248-2609-2998-3417-3868-4356-4884-5455-6073-6744
Interest expense (income), $m157203188175164155147140135131128125124123123123125126129132136140145150156
Earnings before tax, $m787534346159-31-224-424-632-849-1078-1321-1578-1853-2146-2462-2800-3165-3559-3984-4444-4941-5479-6063-6695-7381
Tax expense, $m2121449443000000000000000000000
Net income, $m574390253116-31-224-424-632-849-1078-1321-1578-1853-2146-2462-2800-3165-3559-3984-4444-4941-5479-6063-6695-7381

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m14598139691343212975125881226311992117711159411458113591129311260112571128111333114111151411642117931196912167123901263612907
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m14598139691343212975125881226311992117711159411458113591129311260112571128111333114111151411642117931196912167123901263612907
Average production assets, $m7002670064426223603758815752564655615496544854175401539954115436547355235584565657405836594360616190
Working capital, $m1041996958925897874855839827817810805803803804808814821830841853867883901920
Total debt, $m5073469543734099386736723509337732713189312930903070306830833114316132223299339034953614374838964058
Total liabilities, $m8759838180597785755373587195706369576875681567766756675467696800684769086985707671817300743475827744
Total equity, $m5839558753735190503549054797470846384583454345174504450345134533456446064657471747874867495650555163
Debt-to-equity ratio0.6730.9080.8740.8430.8140.7880.7650.7450.7280.7140.7020.6930.6860.6820.6800.6800.6820.6860.6920.6990.7080.7180.7290.7420.755
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m574390253116-31-224-424-632-849-1078-1321-1578-1853-2146-2462-2800-3165-3559-3984-4444-4941-5479-6063-6695-7381
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m584556532511494479467456448441436432430429428429431434438443449456463472481
Funds from operations, $m115894578562746325543-175-401-637-884-1146-1423-1718-2033-2371-2734-3125-3546-4000-4492-5024-5599-6223-6900
Change in working capital, $m-52-45-38-33-28-23-19-16-13-10-7-5-2024679111314161819
Cash from operations, $m121099082366049127862-160-389-627-877-1141-1420-1718-2035-2375-2739-3132-3555-4011-4504-5038-5615-6241-6919
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-584-556-532-511-494-479-467-456-448-441-436-432-430-429-428-429-431-434-438-443-449-456-463-472-481
New CAPEX, $m00000000000000-12-25-37-49-61-73-84-95-107-118-130
Total CAPEX, $m-584-556-532-511-494-479-467-456-448-441-436-432-430-429-440-454-469-484-499-516-533-551-570-590-611
Free cash flow, $m627435291149-3-201-405-616-837-1069-1313-1573-1850-2146-2475-2829-3208-3616-4054-4527-5037-5589-6185-6831-7530
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m00000973185457801025128215531840214524852850323936574105458851085668627469297638
Retained Cash Flow, $m-5162522151831551301088871554026131-10-21-31-41-51-61-70-80-89-99-108
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m505
Cash available for distribution, $m61663646329512100000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m5875753952379000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1001001001001009893857563514030211510642110000