US · CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
- Sector
- Basic Materials · Agricultural Inputs
- Headquarters
- Northbrook, IL 60015
- Website
- cfindustries.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$122.69
Market cap 16.12B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $103.85 | -15.36% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $64.98 | -47.04% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $29.18 | -76.22% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $239.54 | +95.24% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $25.23 | $68.17 | $154.31 | $26.36 | $264.33 |
| 2012 | $29.47 | $86.94 | $88.04 | $36.12 | $48.15 |
| 2013 | $37.64 | $67.24 | $33.01 | $28.41 | $0.00 |
| 2014 | $43.08 | $76.44 | $17.27 | $20.43 | $0.00 |
| 2015 | $26.95 | $55.25 | $13.36 | $3.89 | $0.00 |
| 2016 | $23.24 | $26.76 | $4.43 | $0.00 | $6.72 |
| 2017 | $34.00 | $23.36 | $3.77 | $0.00 | $30.06 |
| 2018 | $33.91 | $28.03 | $4.22 | $0.00 | $18.72 |
| 2019 | $31.86 | $28.64 | $7.71 | $0.00 | $25.91 |
| 2020 | $44.24 | $33.36 | $4.79 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $88.05 | $75.81 | $168.29 | $8.37 | $273.75 |
| 2022 | $73.13 | $192.09 | $282.34 | $74.28 | $1,251.56 |
| 2023 | $80.39 | $84.65 | $43.79 | $31.98 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $75.38 | $82.29 | $18.05 | $17.31 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $104.30 | $103.85 | $37.66 | $29.18 | $239.54 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s (CF) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $103.85
- Current price
- $122.69
- AI upside
- -15.36%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$64.98
-47.04% upside
Graham-Dodd
$29.18
-76.22% upside
Graham Formula
$239.54
+95.24% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings, I… | $122.69 | 16.12B | -15% | -47% | -76% | +95% | 9.40 | 3.49 | 2.39 | 5.73 | 28.42 | 9.03 | 38.45% | 33.39% | 20.54% | 36.61% | 28.30% | 13.05% | 0.82 | 15.26 | 3.37 | 2.78 | 0.60 | 3309.00% | 1934.00% | 280.00% | 10.66% | 3.10 | 26.86% | 1.93% | 18.10% | 1.93% | 7.98 | 10.47 | 2.66 | 2.84 |
| AGI | Alamos Gold Inc. | $54.19 | 22.75B | -12% | -56% | -64% | +61% | 25.81 | 5.24 | 12.84 | 19.14 | 12.63 | 5.24 | 54.31% | 44.53% | 49.07% | 22.47% | 17.48% | 15.39% | 0.05 | 2034.79 | 1.72 | 1.28 | -0.33 | 20435.00% | 3457.00% | 1500.00% | 1.17% | 1.39 | 7.22% | 0.17% | 4.50% | 1.84% | 28.27 | 84.15 | 12.59 | 8.04 |
| CX | CEMEX, S.A.B. de C.V. | $12.51 | 18.15B | +115% | +23% | +399% | +332% | 4.45 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 2.99 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 31.41% | 9.96% | 5.95% | 3.11% | 4.37% | 1.41% | 0.57 | 2.96 | 0.83 | 0.59 | 2.29 | 98197.00% | -10.00% | 6888.00% | 57.37% | 0.28 | 5.34% | 7.26% | 32.30% | 45.20% | 4.71 | 7.51 | 0.47 | 1.05 |
| ICL | ICL Group Ltd | $4.80 | 6.2B | +345% | -57% | -55% | -54% | 28.78 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 6.65 | — | 1.29 | 30.56% | 9.83% | 3.16% | 3.86% | 5.64% | 1.90% | 0.46 | 2.36 | 1.33 | 0.59 | 1.87 | -4375.00% | 456.00% | -8000.00% | 2.00% | 0.30 | 1.64% | 3.44% | 99.10% | 3.44% | 12.47 | 67.42 | 1.23 | 1.50 |
| LYB | LyondellBasell Industries… | $57.52 | 18.53B | -11% | -60% | — | -36% | -25.25 | 1.85 | 0.62 | 26.29 | — | 2.09 | 9.00% | -1.08% | -2.46% | -6.55% | -1.47% | -2.12% | 1.58 | -0.64 | 1.77 | 1.02 | 10.56 | -15663.00% | -2518.00% | -8061.00% | 2.06% | 0.37 | 1.72% | 9.46% | -239.00% | 10.54% | -95.26 | 81.12 | 1.03 | 1.77 |
| MOS | The Mosaic Company | $27.84 | 8.84B | -31% | -57% | +8% | -1% | 15.17 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 3.53 | 7.26 | 0.79 | 15.08% | 8.71% | 4.49% | 4.88% | 3.52% | 2.43% | 0.06 | 4.82 | 1.32 | 0.34 | 0.18 | 20909.00% | 836.00% | -122785.00% | -6.12% | 0.21 | -3.79% | 3.21% | 48.70% | 45.53% | 8.78 | -17.23 | 0.76 | 1.93 |
| PAAS | Pan American Silver Corp. | $68.70 | 25.19B | -34% | +26% | -65% | +42% | 25.69 | 3.66 | 6.94 | 14.64 | 3.46 | 3.66 | 37.66% | 32.27% | 27.02% | 17.03% | 16.77% | 11.76% | 0.13 | 20.14 | 2.69 | 1.93 | -0.16 | 74194.00% | 3063.00% | 16986.00% | 4.23% | 1.72 | 19.28% | 0.70% | 17.90% | 1.73% | 21.19 | 23.29 | 6.84 | 6.48 |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | $114.12 | 14.62B | -13% | -58% | -94% | -59% | 21.90 | 5.24 | 2.05 | 16.41 | 126.40 | 31.05 | 41.38% | 12.29% | 9.34% | 25.59% | 15.43% | 9.61% | 1.03 | 9.39 | 2.16 | 1.23 | 2.46 | 1732.00% | 51.00% | -4074.00% | 3.56% | 0.52 | 10.52% | 1.69% | 37.00% | 2.28% | 19.62 | 33.03 | 2.41 | 4.03 |
| RS | Reliance Steel & Aluminum… | $315.64 | 16.5B | -15% | -59% | -71% | -49% | 22.88 | 2.37 | 1.19 | 14.38 | — | 4.20 | 26.79% | 7.15% | 5.17% | 10.31% | 9.06% | 7.27% | 0.28 | 18.36 | 4.88 | 2.07 | 1.36 | -1015.00% | 332.00% | -4971.00% | 2.96% | 0.98 | 5.82% | 1.50% | 34.30% | 5.00% | 18.33 | 37.30 | 1.31 | 6.25 |
| SQM | Sociedad Química y Minera… | $76.30 | 21.79B | -3% | -72% | -90% | -45% | — | 2.32 | 2.65 | 12.31 | — | 2.34 | 29.30% | 23.54% | -8.93% | 0.00% | 5.59% | 0.00% | 0.93 | 5.66 | 2.51 | 1.36 | 2.95 | -12014.00% | -3935.00% | -12363.00% | 2.53% | 0.57 | 3.97% | 0.56% | — | 1.09% | 13.48 | 47.44 | 3.17 | 2.63 |
| SUZ | Suzano S.A. | $11.33 | 14B | +35% | -46% | -8% | +103% | 5.63 | 1.69 | 1.51 | 6.96 | — | 2.40 | 31.11% | 22.81% | 26.75% | 34.56% | 6.06% | 7.88% | 2.43 | 1.71 | 3.19 | 2.47 | 4.09 | -29016.00% | 365.00% | 3650.00% | 7.51% | 1.29 | 4.56% | 2.93% | 16.50% | 14.45% | 13.84 | 27.91 | 3.16 | 1.09 |
About CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide. Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products. The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.
- CEO
- Christopher D. Bohn
- Employees
- 2.8K
- Beta
- 0.69
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($64.98 ÷ $122.69) − 1 = -47.04% (DCF, example).