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Intrinsic Value of Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation (CHMI)

Previous Close$2.84
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$2.84

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corporation operates as a real estate finance company specializing in residential mortgage assets. The firm primarily invests in mortgage servicing rights (MSRs), agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), and other mortgage-related assets. Its revenue model hinges on generating returns from these investments through interest income, servicing fees, and capital appreciation. CHMI operates in a highly competitive sector, where its ability to manage interest rate risk and prepayment volatility is critical to sustaining profitability. The company differentiates itself through a disciplined investment approach and active portfolio management, targeting risk-adjusted returns in both stable and volatile market conditions. Its market position is bolstered by a focus on agency-backed securities, which provide relative liquidity and credit safety compared to non-agency assets. However, its performance remains sensitive to macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy and housing market trends.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, CHMI reported revenue of $34.6 million and net income of $12.0 million, translating to diluted EPS of $0.39. The negative operating cash flow of $4.7 million suggests challenges in cash generation from core operations, though the absence of capital expenditures indicates a capital-light model. The firm’s profitability metrics reflect the inherent volatility of mortgage investments, with efficiency contingent on effective asset-liability management.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

CHMI’s earnings power is driven by its mortgage asset portfolio, with returns influenced by interest rate spreads and prepayment speeds. The company’s capital efficiency is underscored by its ability to leverage debt ($151.2 million) against its cash position ($46.3 million) to amplify returns. However, the negative operating cash flow raises questions about sustainable earnings quality, particularly in a rising rate environment.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CHMI’s balance sheet shows $46.3 million in cash and equivalents against $151.2 million in total debt, indicating moderate leverage. The absence of capital expenditures suggests a focus on financial flexibility. While the debt level is manageable relative to its asset base, the company’s financial health depends on stable mortgage market conditions and disciplined risk management.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

CHMI’s growth is tied to its ability to capitalize on mortgage market opportunities, with limited organic expansion evident in FY 2024. The firm’s dividend policy is notable, with a $0.91 per share payout, reflecting a high yield strategy aimed at income-focused investors. However, sustainability depends on consistent earnings and stable cash flows, which remain uncertain given operational cash burn.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices CHMI based on its dividend yield and mortgage asset performance, with valuation metrics reflecting sector-wide risks such as interest rate sensitivity. The disparity between net income and operating cash flow may weigh on investor confidence, suggesting cautious expectations for future earnings stability.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CHMI’s strategic advantages include its niche focus on agency mortgage assets and active portfolio management. However, its outlook is clouded by macroeconomic headwinds, including rate volatility and housing market fluctuations. Success will hinge on adept risk management and the ability to navigate cyclical challenges while maintaining dividend payouts.

Sources

10-K filing, CIK 0001571776

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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