investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Chimera Investment Corporation (CIM)

Previous Close$14.34
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$14.34

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Chimera Investment Corporation operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) specializing in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage loans, and other real estate-related assets. The company generates revenue primarily through interest income from its investment portfolio, leveraging a diversified mix of agency and non-agency securities. Its strategy focuses on optimizing risk-adjusted returns by capitalizing on market inefficiencies and interest rate spreads, positioning it as a mid-sized player in the mortgage REIT sector. Chimera’s market position is bolstered by its ability to adapt to fluctuating interest rate environments, though it faces competition from larger REITs with greater scale. The firm’s niche expertise in hybrid mortgage assets allows it to cater to investors seeking yield in a complex fixed-income landscape. Unlike traditional equity REITs, Chimera’s performance is closely tied to macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policy and housing market trends, making its business model inherently cyclical yet opportunistic.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Chimera reported $257.9 million in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $176.1 million, reflecting a robust profit margin of approximately 68%. The absence of capital expenditures underscores its asset-light model, while operating cash flow of $205.7 million indicates efficient cash generation from its interest-bearing portfolio. Diluted EPS of $1.10 suggests moderate earnings distribution across its 81 million outstanding shares.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by its leveraged portfolio, with interest income offsetting financing costs. However, its high total debt of $10.0 billion relative to $84.0 million in cash highlights reliance on favorable borrowing conditions. The dividend payout of $2.76 per share, exceeding EPS, implies a reliance on retained earnings or debt to sustain distributions, a common trait in REITs prioritizing yield.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Chimera’s balance sheet is characterized by significant leverage, with debt exceeding $10 billion against minimal cash reserves. While this structure amplifies returns in stable rate environments, it exposes the firm to refinancing risks. The lack of capex and focus on liquid securities provides flexibility, but the debt-to-equity ratio warrants monitoring amid rising interest rates.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company’s growth is tied to spreads in mortgage markets, with limited organic expansion avenues. Its $2.76 annual dividend per share, yielding ~10% at current prices, signals a high-income focus, though sustainability depends on stable interest income. Shareholder returns have historically prioritized dividends over buybacks, aligning with REIT distribution requirements.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a P/E near 8x based on FY 2024 EPS, Chimera is priced as a yield play with modest growth expectations. Market sentiment likely reflects concerns over leverage and rate sensitivity, offset by its attractive dividend. Valuation multiples remain below equity REIT averages, underscoring its niche risk-reward profile.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Chimera’s agility in navigating rate cycles and selective asset acquisition provides a competitive edge. Near-term performance hinges on macroeconomic stability, but its hybrid portfolio offers diversification benefits. Investors should weigh high yield against potential volatility, as the firm’s outlook remains tethered to monetary policy and housing finance trends.

Sources

Company 10-K (CIK: 0001409493), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount