investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)

Previous Close$1.87
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$1.87

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

Quarterly Revenue – actual and YoY change

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-2.2-1.8-1.5-1.2-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.00.20.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.82.02.12.32.42.52.72.82.9
Revenue, $407399393389385383382382383384387391395400406413420429438448459470483496511
Variable operating expenses, $m818079787777767677777778798081838486889092949799102
Fixed operating expenses, $m4004344715115556026537097698349059821066115612551361147716031739188720472221241026152837
Total operating expenses, $m48151455058963267972978584691198210601145123613361444156116891827197721392315250727142939
Operating income, $m-75-115-157-201-247-296-348-403-463-527-596-670-750-836-930-1031-1141-1260-1388-1528-1680-1845-2023-2217-2428
EBITDA, $m-30-71-114-158-205-254-307-362-422-486-554-628-708-794-887-987-1096-1214-1342-1481-1632-1795-1973-2166-2375
Interest expense (income), $m4191818181817171717181818181819191920202121222323
Earnings before tax, $m-79-134-175-219-264-313-365-421-480-544-613-687-768-854-948-1050-1160-1279-1408-1549-1701-1866-2045-2240-2452
Tax expense, $m0000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m-79-134-175-219-264-313-365-421-480-544-613-687-768-854-948-1050-1160-1279-1408-1549-1701-1866-2045-2240-2452

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m1078105810421030102110151012101210141019102610351047106010761094111411361160118712161247128013161354
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m1078105810421030102110151012101210141019102610351047106010761094111411361160118712161247128013161354
Average production assets, $m493484477471467465463463464466470474479485493501510520531543556571586602620
Working capital, $m8987868584848484848485868688899092949698100103106109112
Total debt, $m468458450444440437435435436439442447453459467476486497509523537553569587606
Total liabilities, $m539529521515510508506506507509513518523530538547557568580593608623640658677
Total equity, $m539529521515510508506506507509513518523530538547557568580593608623640658677
Debt-to-equity ratio0.1850.8850.8790.8740.8700.8660.8630.8600.8580.8560.8550.8540.8540.8540.8540.8540.8550.8560.8570.8580.8600.8620.8630.8650.867
Adjusted equity ratio0.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.5000.500

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-79-134-175-219-264-313-365-421-480-544-613-687-768-854-948-1050-1160-1279-1408-1549-1701-1866-2045-2240-2452
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m45444342424141414141414242424344444546474849505253
Funds from operations, $m-34-90-132-176-223-272-324-380-439-503-572-646-726-812-905-1006-1115-1234-1362-1502-1653-1817-1995-2188-2398
Change in working capital, $m-2-2-1-1-100000111111222223333
Cash from operations, $m-32-88-131-175-222-271-324-380-439-504-572-647-727-813-907-1008-1117-1236-1364-1504-1655-1819-1998-2191-2401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-45-44-43-42-42-41-41-41-41-41-41-42-42-42-43-44-44-45-46-47-48-49-50-52-53
New CAPEX, $m00000000-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-16-17
Total CAPEX, $m-45-44-43-42-42-41-41-41-42-43-44-46-47-49-50-52-53-55-57-59-61-63-66-68-71
Free cash flow, $m-77-132-174-218-264-313-365-421-482-547-617-692-774-862-957-1059-1171-1291-1421-1563-1716-1883-2063-2259-2472
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m01241672132603103644214835496206977808699651068118113021434157617311898208022772491
Retained Cash Flow, $m-610864310-1-2-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12-13-14-15-17-18-19
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m180
Cash available for distribution, $m97000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m93000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10075523319105210000000000000000