Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 407 | 399 | 393 | 389 | 385 | 383 | 382 | 382 | 383 | 384 | 387 | 391 | 395 | 400 | 406 | 413 | 420 | 429 | 438 | 448 | 459 | 470 | 483 | 496 | 511 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 81 | 80 | 79 | 78 | 77 | 77 | 76 | 76 | 77 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 83 | 84 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 94 | 97 | 99 | 102 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 400 | 434 | 471 | 511 | 555 | 602 | 653 | 709 | 769 | 834 | 905 | 982 | 1066 | 1156 | 1255 | 1361 | 1477 | 1603 | 1739 | 1887 | 2047 | 2221 | 2410 | 2615 | 2837 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 481 | 514 | 550 | 589 | 632 | 679 | 729 | 785 | 846 | 911 | 982 | 1060 | 1145 | 1236 | 1336 | 1444 | 1561 | 1689 | 1827 | 1977 | 2139 | 2315 | 2507 | 2714 | 2939 |
Operating income, $m | | -75 | -115 | -157 | -201 | -247 | -296 | -348 | -403 | -463 | -527 | -596 | -670 | -750 | -836 | -930 | -1031 | -1141 | -1260 | -1388 | -1528 | -1680 | -1845 | -2023 | -2217 | -2428 |
EBITDA, $m | | -30 | -71 | -114 | -158 | -205 | -254 | -307 | -362 | -422 | -486 | -554 | -628 | -708 | -794 | -887 | -987 | -1096 | -1214 | -1342 | -1481 | -1632 | -1795 | -1973 | -2166 | -2375 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 4 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 23 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -79 | -134 | -175 | -219 | -264 | -313 | -365 | -421 | -480 | -544 | -613 | -687 | -768 | -854 | -948 | -1050 | -1160 | -1279 | -1408 | -1549 | -1701 | -1866 | -2045 | -2240 | -2452 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -79 | -134 | -175 | -219 | -264 | -313 | -365 | -421 | -480 | -544 | -613 | -687 | -768 | -854 | -948 | -1050 | -1160 | -1279 | -1408 | -1549 | -1701 | -1866 | -2045 | -2240 | -2452 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1078 | 1058 | 1042 | 1030 | 1021 | 1015 | 1012 | 1012 | 1014 | 1019 | 1026 | 1035 | 1047 | 1060 | 1076 | 1094 | 1114 | 1136 | 1160 | 1187 | 1216 | 1247 | 1280 | 1316 | 1354 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1078 | 1058 | 1042 | 1030 | 1021 | 1015 | 1012 | 1012 | 1014 | 1019 | 1026 | 1035 | 1047 | 1060 | 1076 | 1094 | 1114 | 1136 | 1160 | 1187 | 1216 | 1247 | 1280 | 1316 | 1354 |
Average production assets, $m | | 493 | 484 | 477 | 471 | 467 | 465 | 463 | 463 | 464 | 466 | 470 | 474 | 479 | 485 | 493 | 501 | 510 | 520 | 531 | 543 | 556 | 571 | 586 | 602 | 620 |
Working capital, $m | | 89 | 87 | 86 | 85 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 86 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 92 | 94 | 96 | 98 | 100 | 103 | 106 | 109 | 112 |
Total debt, $m | | 468 | 458 | 450 | 444 | 440 | 437 | 435 | 435 | 436 | 439 | 442 | 447 | 453 | 459 | 467 | 476 | 486 | 497 | 509 | 523 | 537 | 553 | 569 | 587 | 606 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 539 | 529 | 521 | 515 | 510 | 508 | 506 | 506 | 507 | 509 | 513 | 518 | 523 | 530 | 538 | 547 | 557 | 568 | 580 | 593 | 608 | 623 | 640 | 658 | 677 |
Total equity, $m | | 539 | 529 | 521 | 515 | 510 | 508 | 506 | 506 | 507 | 509 | 513 | 518 | 523 | 530 | 538 | 547 | 557 | 568 | 580 | 593 | 608 | 623 | 640 | 658 | 677 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.185 | 0.885 | 0.879 | 0.874 | 0.870 | 0.866 | 0.863 | 0.860 | 0.858 | 0.856 | 0.855 | 0.854 | 0.854 | 0.854 | 0.854 | 0.854 | 0.855 | 0.856 | 0.857 | 0.858 | 0.860 | 0.862 | 0.863 | 0.865 | 0.867 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 | 0.500 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -79 | -134 | -175 | -219 | -264 | -313 | -365 | -421 | -480 | -544 | -613 | -687 | -768 | -854 | -948 | -1050 | -1160 | -1279 | -1408 | -1549 | -1701 | -1866 | -2045 | -2240 | -2452 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 45 | 44 | 43 | 42 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 52 | 53 |
Funds from operations, $m | | -34 | -90 | -132 | -176 | -223 | -272 | -324 | -380 | -439 | -503 | -572 | -646 | -726 | -812 | -905 | -1006 | -1115 | -1234 | -1362 | -1502 | -1653 | -1817 | -1995 | -2188 | -2398 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Cash from operations, $m | | -32 | -88 | -131 | -175 | -222 | -271 | -324 | -380 | -439 | -504 | -572 | -647 | -727 | -813 | -907 | -1008 | -1117 | -1236 | -1364 | -1504 | -1655 | -1819 | -1998 | -2191 | -2401 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -45 | -44 | -43 | -42 | -42 | -41 | -41 | -41 | -41 | -41 | -41 | -42 | -42 | -42 | -43 | -44 | -44 | -45 | -46 | -47 | -48 | -49 | -50 | -52 | -53 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -3 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -15 | -16 | -17 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -45 | -44 | -43 | -42 | -42 | -41 | -41 | -41 | -42 | -43 | -44 | -46 | -47 | -49 | -50 | -52 | -53 | -55 | -57 | -59 | -61 | -63 | -66 | -68 | -71 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -77 | -132 | -174 | -218 | -264 | -313 | -365 | -421 | -482 | -547 | -617 | -692 | -774 | -862 | -957 | -1059 | -1171 | -1291 | -1421 | -1563 | -1716 | -1883 | -2063 | -2259 | -2472 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 124 | 167 | 213 | 260 | 310 | 364 | 421 | 483 | 549 | 620 | 697 | 780 | 869 | 965 | 1068 | 1181 | 1302 | 1434 | 1576 | 1731 | 1898 | 2080 | 2277 | 2491 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -6 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -8 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -13 | -14 | -15 | -17 | -18 | -19 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 180 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 75 | 52 | 33 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |