investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB)

Previous Close$25.01
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$25.01

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. operates as a regional bank holding company, primarily serving commercial and retail clients in the New York metropolitan area. The company generates revenue through a diversified mix of interest income from loans, including commercial real estate, small business, and consumer lending, alongside fee-based services such as deposit accounts and wealth management. Its market position is reinforced by a community-focused approach, leveraging local expertise to build long-term client relationships in a competitive banking landscape. ConnectOne differentiates itself through personalized service and digital banking solutions, catering to both traditional and tech-savvy customers. The bank’s strategic emphasis on middle-market businesses and professional services firms provides stability, while its prudent underwriting standards mitigate risk exposure. Operating in a densely populated and economically dynamic region, ConnectOne benefits from steady demand for financial services, though it faces competition from larger national banks and fintech disruptors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

ConnectOne reported revenue of $517.9 million for FY 2024, with net income of $73.8 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 14.2%. Diluted EPS stood at $1.76, supported by disciplined cost management and stable interest income. Operating cash flow of $60.7 million indicates solid liquidity generation, while negligible capital expenditures suggest a lean operational structure focused on core banking activities.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by its loan portfolio yield and efficient deposit base, with a focus on maintaining a healthy net interest margin. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate returns without significant reinvestment, as seen in the absence of reported capital expenditures. The diluted EPS growth reflects effective capital allocation and shareholder value creation.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ConnectOne’s balance sheet shows $356.5 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $783.5 million, indicating moderate leverage. The liquidity position appears robust, with ample coverage for short-term obligations. The loan-to-deposit ratio and asset quality metrics, though not detailed here, would be critical to assess credit risk and capital adequacy further.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company has demonstrated steady growth in revenue and earnings, supported by its regional market focus. A dividend of $0.87 per share suggests a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, with a payout ratio of approximately 49% based on diluted EPS. This balanced approach aligns with its growth strategy while providing income stability to investors.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization derived from 38.3 million shares outstanding, ConnectOne’s valuation likely reflects its regional banking niche and earnings trajectory. Investors may price in expectations of sustained loan growth and margin stability, though macroeconomic factors like interest rate fluctuations could influence performance.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ConnectOne’s localized expertise and hybrid service model position it well to navigate competitive pressures. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, contingent on regional economic health and the bank’s ability to adapt to digital banking trends. Prudent risk management and client retention will be key to sustaining profitability in a evolving financial landscape.

Sources

Company filings (10-K, investor presentations), Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount