Previous Close | $33.60 |
Intrinsic Value | $9.18 |
Upside potential | -73% |
Data is not available at this time.
CSX Corporation operates as a leading freight transportation company in North America, primarily providing rail-based shipping services. The company generates revenue through the transportation of a diverse range of goods, including industrial products, chemicals, agricultural commodities, and consumer goods. CSX’s extensive rail network spans approximately 20,000 route miles across 23 states, the District of Columbia, and two Canadian provinces, positioning it as a critical logistics provider in the Eastern U.S. The company’s business model leverages economies of scale, long-term customer contracts, and strategic intermodal partnerships to maintain pricing power and operational efficiency. CSX competes with other Class I railroads, trucking companies, and maritime shipping, but its cost advantages and network density reinforce its competitive edge. The company’s focus on precision scheduled railroading (PSR) has enhanced service reliability and asset utilization, further solidifying its market position. CSX continues to invest in technology and infrastructure to optimize efficiency and meet evolving customer demands in a highly regulated industry.
CSX reported revenue of $14.54 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with net income of $3.47 billion, reflecting strong profitability. The company’s diluted EPS stood at $1.79, supported by disciplined cost management and operational improvements. Operating cash flow was robust at $5.25 billion, underscoring efficient cash generation from core operations. These metrics highlight CSX’s ability to maintain healthy margins despite macroeconomic fluctuations.
CSX demonstrates strong earnings power, with operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income, indicating high-quality earnings. The company’s capital expenditures were not explicitly disclosed, but its focus on PSR suggests disciplined capital allocation. High cash flow conversion enables reinvestment in network efficiency and shareholder returns, reinforcing capital efficiency. The absence of reported capex may imply a leaner investment phase following prior infrastructure upgrades.
CSX’s balance sheet shows $933 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $18.99 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The company’s ability to generate substantial operating cash flow ($5.25 billion) provides ample coverage for debt obligations. While leverage is elevated, the stability of rail industry cash flows mitigates liquidity risks. Shareholders’ equity remains supportive of long-term financial health.
CSX’s growth is tied to industrial production and intermodal demand, with long-term trends favoring rail due to cost and environmental advantages. The company paid a dividend of $0.48 per share, reflecting a conservative payout ratio and commitment to returning capital. Share buybacks or dividend increases may follow if cash flow remains strong. Volume growth and pricing power will be key drivers of future earnings expansion.
CSX trades at a P/E multiple derived from its $1.79 EPS, with market expectations likely factoring in steady volume growth and operational efficiency gains. The stock’s valuation reflects confidence in management’s execution of PSR and pricing discipline. Investors may weigh rail industry cyclicality against CSX’s ability to outperform peers in margin improvement and free cash flow generation.
CSX’s strategic advantages include its extensive rail network, PSR-driven efficiency, and strong customer relationships. The outlook remains positive, supported by demand for cost-effective and sustainable freight solutions. Regulatory risks and competition from trucking persist, but CSX’s scale and operational excellence position it well for long-term growth. Continued focus on technology and service reliability will be critical to maintaining its competitive edge.
Company filings (10-K), investor presentations
show cash flow forecast
Fiscal year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 | |
INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue growth rate, % | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue, $ | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Variable operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Fixed operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total operating expenses, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Operating income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Interest expense (income), $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tax expense, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
BALANCE SHEET | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash and short-term investments, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total assets, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Average production assets, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Working capital, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total debt, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total liabilities, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total equity, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Debt-to-equity ratio | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted equity ratio | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
CASH FLOW | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Net income, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Funds from operations, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Change in working capital, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash from operations, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
New CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Total CAPEX, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Free cash flow, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Retained Cash Flow, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Cash available for distribution, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Discount rate, % | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
PV of cash for distribution, $m | NaN | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | NaN |