investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of CSX Corporation (CSX)

Previous Close$33.60
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$33.60

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

CSX Corporation operates as a leading freight transportation company in North America, primarily providing rail-based shipping services. The company generates revenue through the transportation of a diverse range of goods, including industrial products, chemicals, agricultural commodities, and consumer goods. CSX’s extensive rail network spans approximately 20,000 route miles across 23 states, the District of Columbia, and two Canadian provinces, positioning it as a critical logistics provider in the Eastern U.S. The company’s business model leverages economies of scale, long-term customer contracts, and strategic intermodal partnerships to maintain pricing power and operational efficiency. CSX competes with other Class I railroads, trucking companies, and maritime shipping, but its cost advantages and network density reinforce its competitive edge. The company’s focus on precision scheduled railroading (PSR) has enhanced service reliability and asset utilization, further solidifying its market position. CSX continues to invest in technology and infrastructure to optimize efficiency and meet evolving customer demands in a highly regulated industry.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

CSX reported revenue of $14.54 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, with net income of $3.47 billion, reflecting strong profitability. The company’s diluted EPS stood at $1.79, supported by disciplined cost management and operational improvements. Operating cash flow was robust at $5.25 billion, underscoring efficient cash generation from core operations. These metrics highlight CSX’s ability to maintain healthy margins despite macroeconomic fluctuations.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

CSX demonstrates strong earnings power, with operating cash flow significantly exceeding net income, indicating high-quality earnings. The company’s capital expenditures were not explicitly disclosed, but its focus on PSR suggests disciplined capital allocation. High cash flow conversion enables reinvestment in network efficiency and shareholder returns, reinforcing capital efficiency. The absence of reported capex may imply a leaner investment phase following prior infrastructure upgrades.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CSX’s balance sheet shows $933 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $18.99 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The company’s ability to generate substantial operating cash flow ($5.25 billion) provides ample coverage for debt obligations. While leverage is elevated, the stability of rail industry cash flows mitigates liquidity risks. Shareholders’ equity remains supportive of long-term financial health.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

CSX’s growth is tied to industrial production and intermodal demand, with long-term trends favoring rail due to cost and environmental advantages. The company paid a dividend of $0.48 per share, reflecting a conservative payout ratio and commitment to returning capital. Share buybacks or dividend increases may follow if cash flow remains strong. Volume growth and pricing power will be key drivers of future earnings expansion.

Valuation And Market Expectations

CSX trades at a P/E multiple derived from its $1.79 EPS, with market expectations likely factoring in steady volume growth and operational efficiency gains. The stock’s valuation reflects confidence in management’s execution of PSR and pricing discipline. Investors may weigh rail industry cyclicality against CSX’s ability to outperform peers in margin improvement and free cash flow generation.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CSX’s strategic advantages include its extensive rail network, PSR-driven efficiency, and strong customer relationships. The outlook remains positive, supported by demand for cost-effective and sustainable freight solutions. Regulatory risks and competition from trucking persist, but CSX’s scale and operational excellence position it well for long-term growth. Continued focus on technology and service reliability will be critical to maintaining its competitive edge.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount