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Intrinsic Value of CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)

Previous Close$21.68
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$21.68

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

CoreCivic, Inc. operates as a diversified government solutions company specializing in corrections and detention management, primarily serving U.S. federal, state, and local government agencies. The company generates revenue through long-term contracts to manage correctional facilities, residential reentry centers, and detention centers, leveraging its expertise in facility design, construction, and operational efficiency. CoreCivic’s business model is heavily reliant on government partnerships, with a focus on cost-effective solutions for incarceration and rehabilitation services. The company operates in a highly regulated and politically sensitive industry, where demand is driven by incarceration rates, immigration policies, and government budgets. CoreCivic maintains a competitive position through scale, operational expertise, and long-standing relationships with government clients, though its market position is subject to policy shifts and public sentiment regarding private prison operators. The company also provides real estate solutions, including property leasing and development, to further diversify its revenue streams.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

CoreCivic reported revenue of $1.96 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $68.9 million, translating to diluted EPS of $0.62. Operating cash flow stood at $269.2 million, reflecting stable cash generation from core operations. Capital expenditures totaled $71.2 million, indicating moderate reinvestment needs. The company’s profitability metrics suggest efficient cost management, though margins are influenced by contract terms and regulatory compliance costs.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is underpinned by long-term government contracts, providing predictable cash flows. CoreCivic’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate operating cash flow significantly above net income, supporting debt service and limited reinvestment needs. However, the absence of dividends highlights a focus on retaining capital for operational flexibility and potential growth initiatives.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

CoreCivic’s balance sheet shows $107.5 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $1.01 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The debt level reflects historical financing for facility investments, with no near-term liquidity concerns given stable cash flows. The company’s financial health is closely tied to its ability to maintain government contracts and manage debt obligations.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is primarily driven by contract renewals and expansions, with limited organic opportunities due to industry saturation. CoreCivic does not pay dividends, opting to retain earnings for debt reduction and operational needs. The company’s growth trajectory is contingent on policy environments and its ability to adapt to changing demand for correctional services.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values CoreCivic at a modest multiple, reflecting regulatory risks and cyclical demand. Investors likely price in uncertainty around government spending and policy shifts affecting private prison operators. The company’s valuation hinges on its ability to sustain cash flows and navigate political headwinds.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

CoreCivic’s strategic advantages include operational scale, government relationships, and expertise in corrections management. The outlook remains cautious, with growth constrained by regulatory and political factors. The company’s ability to diversify services and maintain cost efficiency will be critical to long-term stability.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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