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Intrinsic Value of China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)

Previous Close$20.85
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$20.85

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

China Yuchai International Limited operates as a leading manufacturer and distributor of diesel engines in China, serving commercial vehicle, marine, and industrial markets. The company generates revenue primarily through engine sales, aftermarket parts, and service offerings, with a strong focus on heavy-duty and medium-duty applications. Its product portfolio includes high-performance engines compliant with evolving emissions standards, positioning it as a key supplier to domestic OEMs and end-users. China Yuchai benefits from its vertically integrated production capabilities, which allow for cost-efficient manufacturing and quality control. The company holds a competitive position in China's fragmented diesel engine market, leveraging its long-standing relationships with commercial vehicle manufacturers and regional distribution networks. While facing competition from global players and alternative energy technologies, China Yuchai maintains market share through technological upgrades and adherence to stringent environmental regulations. Its marine and power generation segments provide diversification, though the commercial vehicle sector remains its core revenue driver.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, China Yuchai reported revenue of RMB 19.1 billion, with net income of RMB 323 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 1.7%. The company generated RMB 779 million in operating cash flow, demonstrating its ability to convert sales into cash despite modest profitability. Capital expenditures of RMB 360 million suggest ongoing investments in production capacity and technology upgrades to maintain competitiveness.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company delivered diluted EPS of RMB 8.21, supported by its 39.3 million outstanding shares. While profitability metrics remain constrained by industry cyclicality and competitive pressures, China Yuchai's operating cash flow coverage of capital expenditures indicates prudent capital allocation. The business maintains adequate earnings power to fund operations and selective growth initiatives within its core markets.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

China Yuchai's balance sheet shows RMB 6.3 billion in cash and equivalents against RMB 2.6 billion in total debt, providing substantial liquidity. This conservative financial structure positions the company to navigate economic cycles and invest in emission-compliant technologies. The strong cash position relative to debt obligations suggests low near-term refinancing risks.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company paid a dividend of RMB 2.58 per share, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite modest earnings growth. China Yuchai's performance remains tied to China's commercial vehicle demand and infrastructure spending. While not exhibiting rapid growth, the company maintains stable cash generation supporting its dividend policy through market cycles.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at modest earnings multiples, the market appears to price in China Yuchai's position as a cyclical industrial player with exposure to China's domestic engine demand. Valuation reflects expectations of steady but unexceptional performance, with potential upside tied to technological advancements or market share gains in specialized engine segments.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

China Yuchai's strategic advantages include its established market position, compliance with emission standards, and strong regional distribution. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, dependent on China's commercial vehicle recovery and the company's ability to adapt to electrification trends while maintaining diesel engine relevance. Near-term performance will likely follow broader industrial and transportation sector trends in China.

Sources

Company filings, financial statements

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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