Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 12.2 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.1 |
Revenue, $ | | 11788 | 13184 | 14700 | 16342 | 18117 | 20033 | 22095 | 24310 | 26687 | 29232 | 31954 | 34860 | 37960 | 41261 | 44773 | 48505 | 52467 | 56670 | 61124 | 65841 | 70832 | 76111 | 81689 | 87582 | 93802 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 10609 | 11865 | 13230 | 14708 | 16306 | 18029 | 19885 | 21879 | 24018 | 26309 | 28759 | 31374 | 34164 | 37135 | 40295 | 43654 | 47220 | 51003 | 55012 | 59257 | 63749 | 68500 | 73520 | 78823 | 84422 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 2388 | 2591 | 2811 | 3050 | 3309 | 3591 | 3896 | 4227 | 4586 | 4976 | 5399 | 5858 | 6356 | 6896 | 7482 | 8118 | 8808 | 9557 | 10369 | 11251 | 12207 | 13245 | 14370 | 15592 | 16917 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 12997 | 14456 | 16041 | 17758 | 19615 | 21620 | 23781 | 26106 | 28604 | 31285 | 34158 | 37232 | 40520 | 44031 | 47777 | 51772 | 56028 | 60560 | 65381 | 70508 | 75956 | 81745 | 87890 | 94415 | 101339 |
Operating income, $m | | -1209 | -1273 | -1341 | -1416 | -1498 | -1587 | -1686 | -1796 | -1918 | -2053 | -2204 | -2372 | -2560 | -2770 | -3005 | -3268 | -3562 | -3890 | -4257 | -4667 | -5124 | -5634 | -6202 | -6834 | -7537 |
EBITDA, $m | | -1106 | -1157 | -1212 | -1272 | -1337 | -1410 | -1490 | -1579 | -1679 | -1791 | -1917 | -2059 | -2218 | -2398 | -2601 | -2829 | -3086 | -3376 | -3702 | -4068 | -4479 | -4939 | -5456 | -6033 | -6679 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 1 | 238 | 249 | 261 | 273 | 287 | 302 | 319 | 336 | 355 | 375 | 396 | 419 | 443 | 469 | 496 | 526 | 557 | 590 | 625 | 662 | 701 | 742 | 786 | 832 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -1210 | -1510 | -1590 | -1676 | -1771 | -1875 | -1989 | -2115 | -2253 | -2407 | -2578 | -2768 | -2979 | -3213 | -3474 | -3764 | -4087 | -4447 | -4847 | -5291 | -5785 | -6334 | -6944 | -7620 | -8369 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -1210 | -1510 | -1590 | -1676 | -1771 | -1875 | -1989 | -2115 | -2253 | -2407 | -2578 | -2768 | -2979 | -3213 | -3474 | -3764 | -4087 | -4447 | -4847 | -5291 | -5785 | -6334 | -6944 | -7620 | -8369 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 5776 | 6460 | 7203 | 8008 | 8878 | 9816 | 10826 | 11912 | 13077 | 14324 | 15657 | 17082 | 18600 | 20218 | 21939 | 23767 | 25709 | 27768 | 29951 | 32262 | 34708 | 37294 | 40028 | 42915 | 45963 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 5776 | 6460 | 7203 | 8008 | 8878 | 9816 | 10826 | 11912 | 13077 | 14324 | 15657 | 17082 | 18600 | 20218 | 21939 | 23767 | 25709 | 27768 | 29951 | 32262 | 34708 | 37294 | 40028 | 42915 | 45963 |
Average production assets, $m | | 578 | 646 | 720 | 801 | 888 | 982 | 1083 | 1191 | 1308 | 1432 | 1566 | 1708 | 1860 | 2022 | 2194 | 2377 | 2571 | 2777 | 2995 | 3226 | 3471 | 3729 | 4003 | 4291 | 4596 |
Working capital, $m | | 613 | 686 | 764 | 850 | 942 | 1042 | 1149 | 1264 | 1388 | 1520 | 1662 | 1813 | 1974 | 2146 | 2328 | 2522 | 2728 | 2947 | 3178 | 3424 | 3683 | 3958 | 4248 | 4554 | 4878 |
Total debt, $m | | 5945 | 6218 | 6516 | 6837 | 7185 | 7561 | 7965 | 8399 | 8865 | 9364 | 9897 | 10467 | 11075 | 11722 | 12410 | 13141 | 13918 | 14742 | 15615 | 16539 | 17518 | 18552 | 19646 | 20800 | 22020 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 2310 | 2584 | 2881 | 3203 | 3551 | 3926 | 4331 | 4765 | 5231 | 5730 | 6263 | 6833 | 7440 | 8087 | 8775 | 9507 | 10284 | 11107 | 11980 | 12905 | 13883 | 14918 | 16011 | 17166 | 18385 |
Total equity, $m | | 3466 | 3876 | 4322 | 4805 | 5327 | 5890 | 6496 | 7147 | 7846 | 8594 | 9394 | 10249 | 11160 | 12131 | 13163 | 14260 | 15425 | 16661 | 17970 | 19357 | 20825 | 22377 | 24017 | 25749 | 27578 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.004 | 1.534 | 1.439 | 1.356 | 1.284 | 1.220 | 1.164 | 1.114 | 1.071 | 1.032 | 0.997 | 0.966 | 0.938 | 0.913 | 0.890 | 0.870 | 0.852 | 0.835 | 0.820 | 0.807 | 0.794 | 0.783 | 0.772 | 0.763 | 0.754 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -1210 | -1510 | -1590 | -1676 | -1771 | -1875 | -1989 | -2115 | -2253 | -2407 | -2578 | -2768 | -2979 | -3213 | -3474 | -3764 | -4087 | -4447 | -4847 | -5291 | -5785 | -6334 | -6944 | -7620 | -8369 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 103 | 116 | 129 | 144 | 160 | 178 | 196 | 217 | 238 | 262 | 286 | 313 | 342 | 372 | 404 | 439 | 475 | 514 | 555 | 599 | 645 | 694 | 746 | 801 | 858 |
Funds from operations, $m | | -1107 | -1395 | -1461 | -1532 | -1611 | -1697 | -1792 | -1898 | -2015 | -2146 | -2292 | -2455 | -2637 | -2841 | -3070 | -3325 | -3612 | -3933 | -4291 | -4692 | -5140 | -5640 | -6198 | -6819 | -7511 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 67 | 73 | 79 | 85 | 92 | 100 | 107 | 115 | 124 | 132 | 142 | 151 | 161 | 172 | 183 | 194 | 206 | 219 | 232 | 245 | 260 | 274 | 290 | 306 | 323 |
Cash from operations, $m | | -1173 | -1467 | -1540 | -1618 | -1703 | -1797 | -1900 | -2013 | -2139 | -2278 | -2433 | -2606 | -2798 | -3013 | -3252 | -3519 | -3818 | -4151 | -4523 | -4938 | -5400 | -5915 | -6488 | -7125 | -7834 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -103 | -116 | -129 | -144 | -160 | -178 | -196 | -217 | -238 | -262 | -286 | -313 | -342 | -372 | -404 | -439 | -475 | -514 | -555 | -599 | -645 | -694 | -746 | -801 | -858 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -63 | -68 | -74 | -80 | -87 | -94 | -101 | -109 | -116 | -125 | -133 | -142 | -152 | -162 | -172 | -183 | -194 | -206 | -218 | -231 | -245 | -259 | -273 | -289 | -305 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -166 | -184 | -203 | -225 | -247 | -271 | -297 | -325 | -355 | -386 | -420 | -456 | -493 | -534 | -576 | -622 | -669 | -720 | -774 | -830 | -890 | -953 | -1019 | -1089 | -1163 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -1339 | -1651 | -1743 | -1842 | -1950 | -2068 | -2197 | -2338 | -2494 | -2665 | -2853 | -3061 | -3292 | -3546 | -3829 | -4141 | -4487 | -4871 | -5297 | -5768 | -6290 | -6867 | -7507 | -8215 | -8997 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 2062 | 2189 | 2325 | 2472 | 2631 | 2803 | 2990 | 3192 | 3413 | 3653 | 3916 | 4203 | 4517 | 4861 | 5238 | 5652 | 6107 | 6606 | 7154 | 7757 | 8419 | 9147 | 9947 | 10826 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -727 | -410 | -446 | -483 | -522 | -563 | -606 | -651 | -699 | -748 | -800 | -854 | -911 | -970 | -1032 | -1097 | -1165 | -1236 | -1310 | -1387 | -1467 | -1552 | -1640 | -1732 | -1829 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 2818 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 752 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 717 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 54 | 30 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |