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Intrinsic Value of Dada Nexus Limited (DADA)

Previous Close$1.86
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$1.86

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %12.211.811.511.210.910.610.310.09.89.59.39.18.98.78.58.38.28.07.97.77.67.57.37.27.1
Revenue, $11788131841470016342181172003322095243102668729232319543486037960412614477348505524675667061124658417083276111816898758293802
Variable operating expenses, $m10609118651323014708163061802919885218792401826309287593137434164371354029543654472205100355012592576374968500735207882384422
Fixed operating expenses, $m23882591281130503309359138964227458649765399585863566896748281188808955710369112511220713245143701559216917
Total operating expenses, $m129971445616041177581961521620237812610628604312853415837232405204403147777517725602860560653817050875956817458789094415101339
Operating income, $m-1209-1273-1341-1416-1498-1587-1686-1796-1918-2053-2204-2372-2560-2770-3005-3268-3562-3890-4257-4667-5124-5634-6202-6834-7537
EBITDA, $m-1106-1157-1212-1272-1337-1410-1490-1579-1679-1791-1917-2059-2218-2398-2601-2829-3086-3376-3702-4068-4479-4939-5456-6033-6679
Interest expense (income), $m1238249261273287302319336355375396419443469496526557590625662701742786832
Earnings before tax, $m-1210-1510-1590-1676-1771-1875-1989-2115-2253-2407-2578-2768-2979-3213-3474-3764-4087-4447-4847-5291-5785-6334-6944-7620-8369
Tax expense, $m0000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m-1210-1510-1590-1676-1771-1875-1989-2115-2253-2407-2578-2768-2979-3213-3474-3764-4087-4447-4847-5291-5785-6334-6944-7620-8369

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m57766460720380088878981610826119121307714324156571708218600202182193923767257092776829951322623470837294400284291545963
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m57766460720380088878981610826119121307714324156571708218600202182193923767257092776829951322623470837294400284291545963
Average production assets, $m5786467208018889821083119113081432156617081860202221942377257127772995322634713729400342914596
Working capital, $m61368676485094210421149126413881520166218131974214623282522272829473178342436833958424845544878
Total debt, $m594562186516683771857561796583998865936498971046711075117221241013141139181474215615165391751818552196462080022020
Total liabilities, $m2310258428813203355139264331476552315730626368337440808787759507102841110711980129051388314918160111716618385
Total equity, $m346638764322480553275890649671477846859493941024911160121311316314260154251666117970193572082522377240172574927578
Debt-to-equity ratio0.0041.5341.4391.3561.2841.2201.1641.1141.0711.0320.9970.9660.9380.9130.8900.8700.8520.8350.8200.8070.7940.7830.7720.7630.754
Adjusted equity ratio0.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.600

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-1210-1510-1590-1676-1771-1875-1989-2115-2253-2407-2578-2768-2979-3213-3474-3764-4087-4447-4847-5291-5785-6334-6944-7620-8369
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m103116129144160178196217238262286313342372404439475514555599645694746801858
Funds from operations, $m-1107-1395-1461-1532-1611-1697-1792-1898-2015-2146-2292-2455-2637-2841-3070-3325-3612-3933-4291-4692-5140-5640-6198-6819-7511
Change in working capital, $m6773798592100107115124132142151161172183194206219232245260274290306323
Cash from operations, $m-1173-1467-1540-1618-1703-1797-1900-2013-2139-2278-2433-2606-2798-3013-3252-3519-3818-4151-4523-4938-5400-5915-6488-7125-7834
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-103-116-129-144-160-178-196-217-238-262-286-313-342-372-404-439-475-514-555-599-645-694-746-801-858
New CAPEX, $m-63-68-74-80-87-94-101-109-116-125-133-142-152-162-172-183-194-206-218-231-245-259-273-289-305
Total CAPEX, $m-166-184-203-225-247-271-297-325-355-386-420-456-493-534-576-622-669-720-774-830-890-953-1019-1089-1163
Free cash flow, $m-1339-1651-1743-1842-1950-2068-2197-2338-2494-2665-2853-3061-3292-3546-3829-4141-4487-4871-5297-5768-6290-6867-7507-8215-8997
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m02062218923252472263128032990319234133653391642034517486152385652610766067154775784199147994710826
Retained Cash Flow, $m-727-410-446-483-522-563-606-651-699-748-800-854-911-970-1032-1097-1165-1236-1310-1387-1467-1552-1640-1732-1829
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m2818
Cash available for distribution, $m752000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m717000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1005430171063211100000000000000