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Intrinsic Value of Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

Previous Close$84.27
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$84.27

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Elastic N.V. operates in the enterprise software sector, specializing in search-powered solutions that enable organizations to derive actionable insights from complex data. The company’s core offerings include Elasticsearch, Kibana, and Logstash, which form the Elastic Stack, a widely adopted platform for search, observability, and security analytics. Elastic’s revenue model is primarily subscription-based, with cloud services and software licenses driving recurring income. The company serves a diverse clientele, ranging from startups to Fortune 500 enterprises, across industries such as e-commerce, financial services, and healthcare. Elastic competes in a dynamic market against established players like Splunk and emerging cloud-native solutions, differentiating itself through open-source roots, scalability, and real-time data processing capabilities. Its hybrid and multi-cloud deployment options further enhance its appeal to enterprises with stringent data governance requirements. The company’s strategic partnerships with major cloud providers, including AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, bolster its market reach and integration capabilities. Elastic’s focus on innovation, evidenced by its continuous enhancements in AI-driven search and security features, positions it as a leader in the evolving data analytics landscape.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Elastic reported revenue of $1.27 billion for FY 2024, reflecting steady growth in its subscription-based model. Net income stood at $61.7 million, with diluted EPS of $0.59, indicating improved profitability. Operating cash flow was robust at $148.8 million, supported by efficient working capital management. Capital expenditures were minimal at $3.5 million, underscoring the asset-light nature of its software business.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by high-margin recurring revenue streams, with a focus on expanding its cloud offerings. Elastic’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate significant operating cash flow relative to its capital expenditures. The firm’s scalable platform allows for incremental revenue growth without proportional cost increases, enhancing long-term profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Elastic maintains a strong balance sheet with $540.4 million in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity for strategic initiatives. Total debt of $593.7 million is manageable, given the company’s cash flow generation. The absence of dividends allows Elastic to reinvest in growth opportunities, such as product development and market expansion.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Elastic’s revenue growth is fueled by increasing adoption of its cloud solutions and expansion into new verticals. The company does not pay dividends, opting instead to allocate capital toward R&D and acquisitions. This strategy aligns with its focus on sustaining high growth rates and capturing market share in the competitive enterprise software space.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Elastic’s valuation reflects investor confidence in its ability to maintain growth momentum and expand margins. Market expectations are anchored on the company’s success in scaling its cloud offerings and penetrating large enterprises. The stock’s performance will likely hinge on execution against these strategic priorities.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Elastic’s open-source heritage, scalable architecture, and strong ecosystem partnerships provide a durable competitive edge. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities in AI-driven analytics and security solutions. However, competition and macroeconomic factors could pose challenges. The company’s ability to innovate and execute will be critical to sustaining its growth trajectory.

Sources

10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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