Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -2.2 | -1.8 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 11618 | 11405 | 11234 | 11102 | 11006 | 10943 | 10911 | 10908 | 10932 | 10983 | 11059 | 11159 | 11282 | 11430 | 11600 | 11793 | 12009 | 12248 | 12510 | 12795 | 13105 | 13439 | 13798 | 14182 | 14593 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 10050 | 9865 | 9717 | 9603 | 9520 | 9466 | 9438 | 9435 | 9456 | 9500 | 9566 | 9652 | 9759 | 9887 | 10034 | 10201 | 10387 | 10594 | 10821 | 11068 | 11336 | 11624 | 11935 | 12268 | 12623 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | -1139 | -1236 | -1341 | -1455 | -1579 | -1713 | -1858 | -2016 | -2188 | -2374 | -2576 | -2794 | -3032 | -3290 | -3569 | -3873 | -4202 | -4559 | -4947 | -5367 | -5823 | -6318 | -6855 | -7438 | -8070 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 8911 | 8629 | 8376 | 8148 | 7941 | 7753 | 7580 | 7419 | 7268 | 7126 | 6990 | 6858 | 6727 | 6597 | 6465 | 6328 | 6185 | 6035 | 5874 | 5701 | 5513 | 5306 | 5080 | 4830 | 4553 |
Operating income, $m | | 2708 | 2776 | 2858 | 2954 | 3064 | 3190 | 3331 | 3489 | 3664 | 3856 | 4068 | 4301 | 4555 | 4833 | 5135 | 5465 | 5823 | 6212 | 6635 | 7094 | 7592 | 8132 | 8718 | 9352 | 10040 |
EBITDA, $m | | 4255 | 4289 | 4343 | 4417 | 4511 | 4624 | 4757 | 4910 | 5085 | 5281 | 5499 | 5741 | 6009 | 6302 | 6624 | 6976 | 7359 | 7777 | 8231 | 8724 | 9259 | 9839 | 10468 | 11150 | 11888 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 92 | 211 | 176 | 149 | 128 | 113 | 103 | 98 | 97 | 101 | 109 | 121 | 137 | 157 | 180 | 208 | 238 | 273 | 311 | 353 | 398 | 447 | 501 | 558 | 619 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 2615 | 2565 | 2681 | 2804 | 2936 | 3077 | 3228 | 3391 | 3566 | 3755 | 3959 | 4180 | 4418 | 4676 | 4955 | 5257 | 5585 | 5940 | 6325 | 6742 | 7194 | 7685 | 8217 | 8795 | 9421 |
Tax expense, $m | | 706 | 693 | 724 | 757 | 793 | 831 | 872 | 916 | 963 | 1014 | 1069 | 1128 | 1193 | 1262 | 1338 | 1419 | 1508 | 1604 | 1708 | 1820 | 1942 | 2075 | 2219 | 2375 | 2544 |
Net income, $m | | 1909 | 1872 | 1957 | 2047 | 2143 | 2246 | 2357 | 2476 | 2603 | 2741 | 2890 | 3051 | 3225 | 3413 | 3617 | 3838 | 4077 | 4336 | 4617 | 4921 | 5252 | 5610 | 5999 | 6420 | 6877 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 57859 | 56795 | 55944 | 55287 | 54810 | 54496 | 54337 | 54322 | 54443 | 54695 | 55072 | 55570 | 56186 | 56919 | 57766 | 58728 | 59803 | 60993 | 62298 | 63720 | 65262 | 66925 | 68712 | 70627 | 72673 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 57859 | 56795 | 55944 | 55287 | 54810 | 54496 | 54337 | 54322 | 54443 | 54695 | 55072 | 55570 | 56186 | 56919 | 57766 | 58728 | 59803 | 60993 | 62298 | 63720 | 65262 | 66925 | 68712 | 70627 | 72673 |
Average production assets, $m | | 45404 | 44569 | 43901 | 43386 | 43011 | 42765 | 42640 | 42628 | 42724 | 42921 | 43217 | 43608 | 44092 | 44667 | 45331 | 46086 | 46930 | 47863 | 48888 | 50004 | 51213 | 52518 | 53921 | 55424 | 57030 |
Working capital, $m | | -2544 | -2498 | -2460 | -2431 | -2410 | -2397 | -2390 | -2389 | -2394 | -2405 | -2422 | -2444 | -2471 | -2503 | -2540 | -2583 | -2630 | -2682 | -2740 | -2802 | -2870 | -2943 | -3022 | -3106 | -3196 |
Total debt, $m | | 5263 | 4411 | 3731 | 3206 | 2823 | 2573 | 2445 | 2433 | 2530 | 2731 | 3033 | 3432 | 3925 | 4511 | 5189 | 5958 | 6818 | 7770 | 8814 | 9952 | 11185 | 12515 | 13945 | 15477 | 17114 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 46287 | 45436 | 44755 | 44230 | 43848 | 43597 | 43470 | 43457 | 43554 | 43756 | 44057 | 44456 | 44949 | 45535 | 46213 | 46982 | 47842 | 48794 | 49839 | 50976 | 52209 | 53540 | 54970 | 56502 | 58139 |
Total equity, $m | | 11572 | 11359 | 11189 | 11057 | 10962 | 10899 | 10867 | 10864 | 10889 | 10939 | 11014 | 11114 | 11237 | 11384 | 11553 | 11746 | 11961 | 12199 | 12460 | 12744 | 13052 | 13385 | 13742 | 14125 | 14535 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.199 | 0.463 | 0.394 | 0.337 | 0.292 | 0.259 | 0.237 | 0.225 | 0.223 | 0.231 | 0.248 | 0.273 | 0.305 | 0.345 | 0.390 | 0.442 | 0.498 | 0.559 | 0.624 | 0.692 | 0.762 | 0.836 | 0.911 | 0.987 | 1.065 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1909 | 1872 | 1957 | 2047 | 2143 | 2246 | 2357 | 2476 | 2603 | 2741 | 2890 | 3051 | 3225 | 3413 | 3617 | 3838 | 4077 | 4336 | 4617 | 4921 | 5252 | 5610 | 5999 | 6420 | 6877 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 1548 | 1513 | 1486 | 1463 | 1446 | 1434 | 1426 | 1421 | 1421 | 1424 | 1431 | 1441 | 1454 | 1470 | 1489 | 1511 | 1536 | 1564 | 1595 | 1630 | 1667 | 1707 | 1751 | 1797 | 1847 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 3457 | 3386 | 3443 | 3511 | 3590 | 3680 | 3782 | 3897 | 4024 | 4165 | 4321 | 4492 | 4679 | 4883 | 5106 | 5349 | 5613 | 5900 | 6212 | 6551 | 6919 | 7317 | 7749 | 8217 | 8725 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 57 | 47 | 37 | 29 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 1 | -5 | -11 | -17 | -22 | -27 | -32 | -37 | -42 | -47 | -52 | -57 | -63 | -68 | -73 | -79 | -84 | -90 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 3400 | 3339 | 3405 | 3482 | 3569 | 3666 | 3775 | 3896 | 4030 | 4176 | 4337 | 4514 | 4706 | 4915 | 5143 | 5391 | 5660 | 5953 | 6270 | 6614 | 6986 | 7390 | 7828 | 8302 | 8815 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -1548 | -1513 | -1486 | -1463 | -1446 | -1434 | -1426 | -1421 | -1421 | -1424 | -1431 | -1441 | -1454 | -1470 | -1489 | -1511 | -1536 | -1564 | -1595 | -1630 | -1667 | -1707 | -1751 | -1797 | -1847 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -95 | -197 | -296 | -391 | -484 | -575 | -665 | -754 | -844 | -934 | -1024 | -1116 | -1210 | -1305 | -1403 | -1503 | -1606 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -1548 | -1513 | -1486 | -1463 | -1446 | -1434 | -1426 | -1421 | -1516 | -1622 | -1726 | -1832 | -1937 | -2045 | -2154 | -2266 | -2380 | -2498 | -2620 | -2746 | -2876 | -3012 | -3153 | -3300 | -3453 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 1852 | 1826 | 1920 | 2018 | 2122 | 2233 | 2350 | 2475 | 2514 | 2555 | 2611 | 2682 | 2768 | 2871 | 2989 | 3126 | 3280 | 3455 | 3650 | 3868 | 4110 | 4378 | 4675 | 5002 | 5361 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 324 | 213 | 170 | 131 | 96 | 63 | 32 | 3 | -24 | -50 | -75 | -100 | -123 | -147 | -169 | -192 | -215 | -238 | -261 | -284 | -308 | -333 | -357 | -383 | -409 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 3188 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 5299 | 1996 | 2056 | 2123 | 2199 | 2283 | 2375 | 2477 | 2489 | 2505 | 2536 | 2582 | 2645 | 2724 | 2820 | 2933 | 3065 | 3217 | 3389 | 3583 | 3802 | 4046 | 4317 | 4619 | 4952 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 5052 | 1805 | 1756 | 1703 | 1647 | 1586 | 1522 | 1453 | 1327 | 1204 | 1090 | 983 | 884 | 790 | 703 | 621 | 545 | 474 | 408 | 347 | 292 | 242 | 198 | 160 | 126 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |