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Intrinsic Value of Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. (EVLV)

Previous Close$5.62
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$5.62

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Evolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. operates in the security technology sector, specializing in AI-driven threat detection solutions. The company’s core revenue model is built on subscription-based and hardware sales for its advanced screening systems, which are deployed in high-traffic venues such as stadiums, schools, and corporate campuses. Evolv’s proprietary AI platform differentiates it from traditional metal detectors by enabling faster, more accurate threat identification without disrupting visitor flow. The company competes in the growing physical security market, which is increasingly prioritizing seamless, non-intrusive screening technologies. Evolv has positioned itself as a leader in AI-enhanced security, leveraging partnerships with major venues and government entities to expand its footprint. Its technology addresses critical pain points in public safety, offering scalability and real-time analytics, which enhance its value proposition in an industry shifting toward smart, automated solutions.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Evolv reported revenue of $103.9 million for FY 2024, reflecting its growing adoption in the security technology market. However, the company posted a net loss of $54.0 million, with diluted EPS of -$0.34, indicating ongoing investments in growth and R&D. Operating cash flow was negative at $30.9 million, while capital expenditures totaled $31.2 million, underscoring its focus on scaling infrastructure and technology development.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s negative earnings and cash flow highlight its current stage of heavy investment to capture market share. Evolv’s capital efficiency metrics are pressured by high R&D and deployment costs, though its subscription-based model may improve margins over time as recurring revenue scales. The balance between growth spending and future profitability remains a critical focus for stakeholders.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Evolv’s balance sheet shows $37.0 million in cash and equivalents, providing liquidity to support operations. Total debt stands at $14.5 million, suggesting manageable leverage. The company’s financial health is contingent on its ability to reduce cash burn and achieve sustainable revenue growth, given its current negative cash flow and profitability metrics.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Evolv’s growth is driven by increasing demand for AI-powered security solutions, though its financials reflect a pre-profitability phase. The company does not pay dividends, reinvesting all cash flows into expansion and technology development. Future trends will depend on its ability to convert deployments into recurring revenue and achieve operational scale.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely values Evolv based on its growth potential in the AI security space rather than current profitability. Investors may focus on its technology differentiation and contract pipeline, though the stock’s performance will hinge on execution toward breakeven and beyond.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Evolv’s AI-driven platform and first-mover advantage in touchless security screening provide strategic differentiation. The outlook depends on its ability to monetize deployments, reduce losses, and navigate competitive pressures. Success in securing large-scale contracts and improving unit economics will be pivotal for long-term viability.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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