Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)

Previous Close	$220.97
Intrinsic Value	$45.22
Upside potential	-80%

Previous Close

$220.97

Intrinsic Value

$45.22

Potential

-80%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1	5.1
Revenue, $	2377	2500	2630	2766	2908	3058	3216	3381	3555	3737	3928	4129	4340	4561	4794	5038	5294	5563	5846	6143	6454	6781	7125	7486	7864
Variable operating expenses, $m	1215	1278	1344	1413	1486	1563	1643	1728	1816	1910	2007	2110	2218	2331	2450	2574	2705	2843	2987	3139	3298	3465	3641	3825	4019
Fixed operating expenses, $m	520	564	612	664	720	781	848	920	998	1083	1175	1275	1383	1501	1628	1767	1917	2080	2257	2448	2657	2882	3127	3393	3682
Total operating expenses, $m	1735	1842	1956	2077	2206	2344	2491	2648	2814	2993	3182	3385	3601	3832	4078	4341	4622	4923	5244	5587	5955	6347	6768	7218	7701
Operating income, $m	643	659	674	689	702	714	725	733	740	744	746	744	739	730	716	697	672	641	602	555	500	434	357	267	164
EBITDA, $m	792	816	839	862	885	906	927	946	964	979	993	1004	1012	1017	1017	1014	1005	991	970	942	906	860	805	738	659
Interest expense (income), $m	45	19	22	26	30	34	38	42	47	52	57	62	68	74	80	87	94	101	109	116	125	134	143	153	163
Earnings before tax, $m	598	640	652	663	672	680	687	691	693	693	689	682	671	656	636	610	578	540	494	439	375	300	214	115	1
Tax expense, $m	161	173	176	179	182	184	185	187	187	187	186	184	181	177	172	165	156	146	133	118	101	81	58	31	0
Net income, $m	436	467	476	484	491	497	501	505	506	506	503	498	490	479	464	445	422	394	360	320	274	219	156	84	1
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	3351	3525	3708	3900	4101	4312	4534	4767	5012	5269	5539	5822	6119	6432	6759	7104	7465	7845	8243	8661	9101	9562	10046	10555	11088
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	3351	3525	3708	3900	4101	4312	4534	4767	5012	5269	5539	5822	6119	6432	6759	7104	7465	7845	8243	8661	9101	9562	10046	10555	11088
Average production assets, $m	2184	2298	2417	2542	2673	2811	2955	3107	3267	3434	3610	3795	3988	4192	4406	4630	4865	5113	5373	5645	5932	6232	6548	6879	7227
Working capital, $m	371	390	410	431	454	477	502	527	555	583	613	644	677	712	748	786	826	868	912	958	1007	1058	1111	1168	1227
Total debt, $m	467	554	645	741	841	947	1058	1175	1297	1425	1560	1702	1851	2007	2171	2343	2524	2713	2912	3122	3341	3572	3814	4068	4335
Total liabilities, $m	1676	1763	1854	1950	2050	2156	2267	2384	2506	2634	2769	2911	3060	3216	3380	3552	3733	3922	4121	4331	4550	4781	5023	5277	5544
Total equity, $m	1676	1763	1854	1950	2050	2156	2267	2384	2506	2634	2769	2911	3060	3216	3380	3552	3733	3922	4121	4331	4550	4781	5023	5277	5544
Debt-to-equity ratio	0.669	0.265	0.299	0.331	0.361	0.390	0.418	0.444	0.469	0.492	0.515	0.536	0.556	0.575	0.594	0.611	0.628	0.643	0.658	0.673	0.686	0.699	0.711	0.723	0.734
Adjusted equity ratio	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	436	467	476	484	491	497	501	505	506	506	503	498	490	479	464	445	422	394	360	320	274	219	156	84	1
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	149	157	165	174	183	192	202	213	224	235	247	260	273	287	302	317	333	350	368	387	406	427	448	471	495
Funds from operations, $m	586	624	641	658	674	689	704	717	730	741	750	757	763	766	766	762	755	744	728	707	680	646	604	555	496
Change in working capital, $m	18	19	20	21	22	23	25	26	27	28	30	31	33	35	36	38	40	42	44	46	49	51	54	56	59
Cash from operations, $m	567	605	621	637	651	666	679	691	702	712	720	726	730	731	729	724	715	702	684	661	631	595	551	499	437
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-149	-157	-165	-174	-183	-192	-202	-213	-224	-235	-247	-260	-273	-287	-302	-317	-333	-350	-368	-387	-406	-427	-448	-471	-495
New CAPEX, $m	-108	-113	-119	-125	-131	-138	-145	-152	-159	-167	-176	-185	-194	-204	-214	-224	-236	-247	-260	-273	-286	-301	-316	-331	-348
Total CAPEX, $m	-257	-271	-284	-299	-314	-330	-347	-365	-383	-402	-423	-444	-467	-490	-515	-541	-569	-597	-628	-659	-692	-727	-764	-802	-843
Free cash flow, $m	310	335	337	338	337	336	332	327	319	310	297	282	263	241	214	183	147	105	57	1	-61	-133	-213	-304	-406
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	34	85	143	208	281	363	455	558	673
Retained Cash Flow, $m	-22	-87	-91	-96	-101	-106	-111	-117	-122	-128	-135	-142	-149	-156	-164	-172	-181	-190	-199	-209	-220	-231	-242	-254	-267
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	-345
Cash available for distribution, $m	0	248	245	242	237	230	221	210	197	181	162	140	114	84	50	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Discount rate, %	5.20	5.46	5.73	6.02	6.32	6.64	6.97	7.32	7.68	8.07	8.47	8.89	9.34	9.81	10.30	10.81	11.35	11.92	12.51	13.14	13.80	14.49	15.21	15.97	16.77
PV of cash for distribution, $m	0	223	208	191	174	156	138	120	101	83	66	50	36	23	12	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	99	98	97	96	95	94	92	90

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Eagle Materials Inc. (EXP)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW