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Intrinsic ValueNational Vision Holdings, Inc. (EYE)

Previous Close$25.81
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$25.81

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

National Vision Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading optical retailer in the U.S., specializing in affordable eye care and eyewear. The company’s revenue model is driven by retail sales across its diverse store banners, including America’s Best Contacts & Eyeglasses, Eyeglass World, and Vista Optical, which cater to value-conscious consumers. National Vision also partners with Walmart and other retailers to expand its reach through in-store optical centers, enhancing accessibility. The company competes in the fragmented $40B U.S. optical market, differentiating itself through a vertically integrated supply chain that allows cost efficiencies and competitive pricing. Its focus on affordability and convenience positions it as a strong player in the value segment, appealing to uninsured or underinsured customers. Despite competition from Luxottica and Warby Parker, National Vision’s scale and partnerships provide a resilient market position.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

National Vision reported revenue of $1.82B for FY 2024, reflecting steady demand for its optical products and services. However, the company posted a net loss of $28.5M, with diluted EPS of -$0.36, indicating margin pressures from operational costs or pricing competition. Operating cash flow stood at $133.6M, suggesting core operations remain cash-generative, while capital expenditures of $95.5M highlight ongoing investments in store expansion and infrastructure.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The negative net income raises concerns about near-term earnings power, though positive operating cash flow implies underlying profitability. Capital efficiency metrics are mixed, with capex nearly offsetting operating cash flow, indicating reinvestment needs. The company’s ability to scale profitably amid competitive and macroeconomic headwinds will be critical to improving returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

National Vision holds $73.9M in cash and equivalents against total debt of $816M, signaling moderate leverage. The debt level warrants monitoring, particularly if interest rates remain elevated. Liquidity appears manageable given operating cash flow, but sustained losses could strain financial flexibility over time.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is likely driven by store expansion and partnerships, though FY 2024’s net loss suggests challenges in translating top-line growth to the bottom line. The company does not pay dividends, prioritizing reinvestment. Future performance hinges on improving unit economics and leveraging its value-oriented model in a competitive market.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market appears cautious, given the negative EPS and profitability concerns. Valuation multiples may reflect skepticism about near-term earnings recovery, though the company’s scale and niche positioning could support long-term upside if margins improve.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

National Vision’s vertically integrated model and value-focused branding provide cost advantages, but execution risks persist. The outlook depends on balancing growth investments with profitability, particularly in an inflationary environment. Success in penetrating underserved markets and optimizing its retail footprint could drive re-rating potential.

Sources

Company 10-K, CIK 0001710155

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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