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Intrinsic Value of Ferrovial SE (FER)

Previous Close$52.57
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$52.57

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Ferrovial SE is a global infrastructure operator and developer with a diversified portfolio spanning toll roads, airports, construction, and energy projects. The company generates revenue through long-term concessions, construction contracts, and asset management, leveraging its expertise in public-private partnerships (PPPs). Its toll road business, a key revenue driver, includes high-profile assets like the 407 ETR in Canada and multiple U.S. highways, while its airport division manages major hubs such as Heathrow. Ferrovial operates in highly regulated but stable sectors, benefiting from inflation-linked contracts and recurring cash flows. The company maintains a competitive edge through technological innovation in sustainable infrastructure and digital mobility solutions. Its market position is strengthened by a geographically diversified footprint, reducing reliance on any single economy. Ferrovial’s strategic focus on decarbonization and smart infrastructure aligns with global trends, reinforcing its reputation as a leader in next-generation urban and transport solutions.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Ferrovial reported revenue of €9.15 billion for FY 2024, with net income reaching €3.24 billion, reflecting robust profitability. Diluted EPS stood at €4.44, supported by efficient cost management and high-margin concession assets. Operating cash flow was €1.29 billion, though capital expenditures of €226 million indicate ongoing investments in growth. The company’s asset-light model in concessions contributes to strong cash conversion.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Ferrovial’s earnings power is underpinned by its concession-based revenue streams, which provide predictable, long-term cash flows. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to monetize mature assets while reinvesting in high-return projects. Its toll road and airport segments demonstrate particularly high returns on invested capital, driven by operational leverage and pricing power.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Ferrovial maintains a solid balance sheet with €4.81 billion in cash and equivalents, though total debt of €11.53 billion reflects its capital-intensive operations. The company’s debt is largely project-financed, aligning with long-term concession cash flows. Liquidity remains healthy, supported by strong operating cash generation and access to credit markets.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Ferrovial’s growth is driven by expansion in North American toll roads and airport concessions, alongside selective construction projects. The company paid a dividend of €1.26 per share in FY 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns. Future growth may hinge on winning new concessions and advancing sustainability-focused infrastructure projects.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Ferrovial for its stable cash flows and growth potential in infrastructure. Its valuation multiples reflect investor confidence in its concession-heavy business model and geographic diversification. Expectations are tied to execution on new projects and regulatory stability in key markets.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Ferrovial’s strategic advantages include its expertise in PPPs, global scale, and focus on sustainable infrastructure. The outlook is positive, supported by increasing demand for transport infrastructure and energy transition projects. Risks include regulatory changes and macroeconomic volatility, but the company’s diversified model provides resilience.

Sources

Company filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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