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Intrinsic Value of First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. (FGBI)

Previous Close$8.99
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$8.99

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc. operates as a regional bank holding company, primarily serving commercial and retail customers through its subsidiary, First Guaranty Bank. The company generates revenue through traditional banking activities, including interest income from loans and investments, as well as fee-based services such as deposit accounts, wealth management, and mortgage lending. Its market position is anchored in community banking, with a focus on small to mid-sized businesses and individual clients in its regional footprint. The bank differentiates itself through personalized service, local decision-making, and a relationship-driven approach, which fosters customer loyalty in competitive markets. While it operates in a sector dominated by larger national banks, First Guaranty leverages its regional expertise to maintain a stable deposit base and loan portfolio. Its conservative underwriting and localized lending strategies mitigate risks associated with economic downturns, positioning it as a resilient player in the community banking space.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, First Guaranty Bancshares reported revenue of $111.5 million and net income of $12.4 million, translating to a diluted EPS of $1.18. The company's operating cash flow stood at $33.7 million, with no reported capital expenditures, indicating efficient cash generation from core operations. These figures reflect steady profitability, though margins may be influenced by interest rate environments and loan demand.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The bank's earnings power is driven by its net interest margin and fee income, supported by a disciplined cost structure. With $563.8 million in cash and equivalents and $194.9 million in total debt, the balance sheet suggests prudent liquidity management. The absence of capital expenditures highlights a focus on organic growth and capital preservation, aligning with its community banking model.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

First Guaranty maintains a solid financial position, with cash and equivalents covering a significant portion of its $194.9 million debt. The low leverage ratio and stable deposit base underscore its conservative risk profile. Shareholders' equity remains robust, supporting future growth initiatives or potential dividend increases. The bank's asset quality and loan portfolio performance will be critical to monitor in evolving economic conditions.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company has demonstrated consistent, albeit modest, growth, with a dividend payout of $0.26 per share, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Future growth may hinge on regional economic trends and the bank's ability to expand its loan book while maintaining credit quality. Dividend sustainability appears manageable given current earnings and cash flow levels.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a diluted EPS of $1.18, the bank's valuation aligns with regional peers, though investor sentiment may be tempered by broader banking sector challenges. Market expectations likely focus on interest rate sensitivity and loan growth potential, with a premium placed on its stable deposit franchise and localized lending strategy.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

First Guaranty's strategic advantages include its deep regional roots, conservative underwriting, and customer-centric approach. While macroeconomic headwinds pose risks, the bank's focus on relationship banking and operational efficiency positions it to navigate volatility. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, contingent on maintaining asset quality and leveraging opportunities in its core markets.

Sources

Company filings (CIK: 0001408534), reported financials for FY 2024

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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