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Intrinsic Value of National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)

Previous Close$46.91
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$46.91

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

National Beverage Corp. operates in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, specializing in flavored sparkling waters, energy drinks, and juices under brands like LaCroix and Shasta. The company’s core revenue model hinges on premiumization and brand loyalty, targeting health-conscious consumers through innovative flavors and marketing. Its vertically integrated supply chain enhances cost efficiency, while a focus on niche markets allows it to compete against larger players like PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. National Beverage maintains a strong regional presence in the U.S., leveraging agility to adapt to shifting consumer preferences faster than industry giants. The company’s market positioning is bolstered by its ability to capitalize on the growing demand for low-calorie, natural beverages, though it faces intense competition and pricing pressures. Strategic partnerships with retailers and a direct-store-delivery network further reinforce its competitive edge in the crowded beverage sector.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

National Beverage reported revenue of $1.19 billion for FY2024, with net income of $176.7 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 14.8%. Operating cash flow stood at $197.9 million, supported by disciplined cost management. Capital expenditures were modest at $30.3 million, indicating efficient reinvestment relative to cash generation. The company’s profitability metrics underscore its ability to maintain strong margins despite inflationary pressures.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Diluted EPS of $1.89 demonstrates robust earnings power, driven by high-margin product lines and operational efficiency. The company’s capital-light model, evidenced by low capex intensity, allows for significant free cash flow generation. This efficiency enables strategic flexibility, including potential reinvestment in growth initiatives or shareholder returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

National Beverage maintains a solid balance sheet, with $327 million in cash and equivalents against $54.8 million of total debt, yielding a net cash position. The negligible leverage and strong liquidity position provide resilience against macroeconomic volatility. Shareholders’ equity is further supported by consistent profitability and prudent financial management.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue growth has been steady, though slower than peak years, reflecting market saturation in sparkling water. The company’s dividend payout of $3.25 per share signals confidence in sustained cash flow, though yield remains secondary to capital appreciation. Future growth may hinge on product innovation and geographic expansion beyond core markets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a premium to peers, National Beverage’s valuation reflects its niche positioning and profitability. Market expectations likely price in continued margin resilience and brand strength, though competition and input cost risks warrant monitoring. The stock’s performance will depend on execution in a challenging consumer environment.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

National Beverage’s agility and brand equity are key differentiators in a consolidating industry. Near-term challenges include inflationary cost pressures and shifting consumer trends, but its focus on premium, health-oriented products aligns with long-term demand. Strategic initiatives in marketing and distribution could further solidify its market position.

Sources

10-K filing (CIK: 0000069891), company financial statements

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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