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Intrinsic Value of Fortis Inc. (FTS.TO)

Previous Close$64.65
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$64.65

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Fortis Inc. is a leading North American regulated electric and gas utility, serving over 3.3 million customers across Canada, the U.S., and the Caribbean. The company operates a diversified portfolio of generation, transmission, and distribution assets, including hydroelectric, gas-fired, wind, and solar facilities, with a total capacity exceeding 4,000 MW. Its vertically integrated model ensures stable cash flows through long-term rate-regulated operations, with 99% of assets under cost-of-service or performance-based regulation. Fortis holds strong positions in key markets like Arizona, British Columbia, and Alberta, where it benefits from high barriers to entry and predictable demand. The company's strategic focus on renewable energy integration and grid modernization aligns with broader decarbonization trends, reinforcing its role as a critical infrastructure provider. With a century-long operating history, Fortis maintains a reputation for reliability and operational excellence, supported by its extensive network of 90,200 km of distribution lines and 50,500 km of gas pipelines. Its geographic diversification mitigates regional risks while providing growth opportunities through rate base expansion and targeted acquisitions in stable regulatory environments.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Fortis reported FY2024 revenue of CAD 11.51 billion, demonstrating the stability typical of regulated utilities. Net income reached CAD 1.68 billion, translating to diluted EPS of CAD 3.24, reflecting efficient cost management and predictable returns on its rate-regulated assets. Operating cash flow stood at CAD 3.88 billion, though significant capital expenditures (CAD 5.01 billion) highlight ongoing infrastructure investments. The company's asset-heavy model delivers consistent margins, with regulatory mechanisms ensuring recovery of prudent investments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company's earnings are underpinned by high-quality regulated assets that generate stable returns, typically in the 8-10% range under various jurisdictions' frameworks. Fortis maintains disciplined capital allocation, with a focus on rate-base growth projects that yield predictable cash flows. Its diversified generation mix, including hydroelectric and renewable assets, provides cost advantages and environmental benefits that enhance long-term earnings sustainability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Fortis carries CAD 33.7 billion in total debt, reflecting the capital-intensive nature of utility operations, but maintains investment-grade credit ratings. With only CAD 220 million in cash, the company relies on consistent operating cash flows and access to capital markets to fund its CAD 20 billion+ capital plan. The regulated asset base provides stable collateral, while conservative leverage ratios align with industry standards for low-risk utilities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company targets 4-6% annual rate base growth through 2028, driven by CAD 25 billion in planned capital investments. Fortis has increased its dividend for 50 consecutive years, with the current annual payout of CAD 2.435 per share representing a payout ratio of ~75% of earnings - sustainable given the predictable cash flows from regulated operations. This positions it as a core holding for income-focused investors.

Valuation And Market Expectations

At a CAD 33.3 billion market cap, Fortis trades at ~20x P/E, a premium to pure-play electric utilities but justified by its gas diversification and growth profile. The low beta (0.35) reflects defensive characteristics, with investors valuing predictable returns in volatile markets. Current valuation implies modest growth expectations aligned with regulated ROEs and the company's 6-7% EPS growth guidance.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Fortis benefits from irreplaceable infrastructure assets, constructive regulatory relationships, and a diversified service territory that mitigates regional risks. The transition to cleaner energy presents both challenges and opportunities, with the company well-positioned to integrate renewables while maintaining grid reliability. Management's proven execution on capital projects and disciplined M&A (like the ITC Holdings acquisition) supports continued dividend growth and total returns in line with historical 8-10% annualized performance.

Sources

Company 10-K filings, investor presentations, Bloomberg terminal data

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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