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Intrinsic Value of Greif, Inc. (GEF.B)

Previous Close$73.39
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$73.39

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Greif, Inc. operates as a global leader in industrial packaging products and services, specializing in steel, plastic, and fiber drums, intermediate bulk containers, and containerboard. The company serves diverse end markets, including chemicals, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum, leveraging its vertically integrated supply chain to optimize production and distribution. Greif’s market position is reinforced by its extensive global footprint, with manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, enabling localized solutions for multinational clients. Its revenue model combines product sales with complementary services like container lifecycle management, enhancing customer retention and recurring revenue streams. The company competes on durability, sustainability, and regulatory compliance, aligning with increasing demand for eco-friendly packaging. Greif’s scale and operational expertise position it as a consolidator in the fragmented industrial packaging sector, allowing for strategic acquisitions and organic growth in emerging markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Greif reported revenue of $5.45 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $262.1 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 4.8%. Operating cash flow stood at $356 million, while capital expenditures totaled $186.5 million, indicating disciplined reinvestment. The company’s diluted EPS of $4.64 demonstrates steady earnings generation, supported by cost controls and pricing power in its core packaging segments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is underpinned by its diversified product portfolio and global scale, translating into stable cash flows. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to maintain operating cash flow coverage of debt service, though the total debt of $3.07 billion warrants monitoring. Greif’s focus on high-return projects and working capital optimization supports sustained ROIC improvement.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Greif’s balance sheet shows $197.7 million in cash and equivalents against $3.07 billion in total debt, suggesting a leveraged but manageable position. The debt load is typical for capital-intensive industrials, and the company’s consistent operating cash flow provides liquidity. Dividend payments of $3.20 per share indicate a commitment to shareholder returns, though leverage ratios should be tracked for flexibility.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is driven by organic demand for sustainable packaging and strategic acquisitions, particularly in emerging markets. The dividend yield, supported by a payout ratio aligned with earnings, reflects a balanced capital allocation strategy. Greif’s ability to pass on input cost inflation and expand margins in cyclical markets will be critical for future dividend sustainability.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at a mid-single-digit P/E multiple, Greif’s valuation reflects its cyclical exposure and moderate growth profile. Market expectations appear conservative, pricing in steady but unspectacular performance, with potential upside from margin expansion or accretive M&A. The stock’s yield may appeal to income-oriented investors seeking industrial sector exposure.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Greif’s competitive advantages include its global scale, vertical integration, and entrenched customer relationships. The outlook hinges on industrial demand recovery, pricing discipline, and sustainability-driven packaging trends. Risks include raw material volatility and economic slowdowns, but the company’s diversified end markets and operational agility position it for resilient performance.

Sources

10-K filings, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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