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Intrinsic Value of Gray Television, Inc. (GTN)

Previous Close$5.63
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$5.63

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Gray Television, Inc. operates as a leading local television broadcaster in the United States, owning and operating high-quality stations across key markets. The company generates revenue primarily through advertising sales, retransmission fees from cable and satellite providers, and digital media services. Gray Television’s extensive portfolio includes affiliates of major networks like ABC, CBS, NBC, and Fox, positioning it as a dominant player in local news and entertainment. The company’s strategic focus on local content and community engagement strengthens its competitive edge in an industry increasingly challenged by digital disruption. Gray Television’s diversified revenue streams and strong market presence underscore its resilience in the evolving media landscape. Its emphasis on high-value programming and partnerships with national networks enhances its ability to capture advertising dollars while maintaining viewer loyalty. The company’s scale and operational efficiency allow it to navigate regulatory changes and shifting consumer preferences effectively.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Gray Television reported revenue of $3.64 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $375 million, reflecting a diluted EPS of $3.36. Operating cash flow stood at $751 million, demonstrating robust cash generation capabilities. Capital expenditures totaled $143 million, indicating disciplined investment in maintaining and upgrading broadcast infrastructure. The company’s ability to convert revenue into cash flow highlights its operational efficiency and cost management.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by stable advertising revenue and growing retransmission fees. With an operating cash flow of $751 million, Gray Television exhibits strong capital efficiency, reinvesting strategically to sustain its market position. The balance between earnings retention and debt servicing reflects prudent financial management, ensuring long-term sustainability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Gray Television’s balance sheet shows $135 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $5.69 billion, indicating a leveraged but manageable position. The company’s ability to generate consistent operating cash flow provides a cushion for debt obligations. However, the high debt load warrants careful monitoring, particularly in a rising interest rate environment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Gray Television has maintained a dividend payout of $0.32 per share, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. Growth trends are driven by retransmission fee growth and digital expansion, though traditional advertising remains cyclical. The company’s focus on local content and strategic acquisitions could further bolster growth in underserved markets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Gray Television based on its ability to sustain cash flows and navigate industry headwinds. With a diluted EPS of $3.36, the company trades at a multiple reflective of its mixed growth prospects and leveraged balance sheet. Investor sentiment hinges on execution in digital transformation and debt management.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Gray Television’s strategic advantages lie in its extensive local network and diversified revenue streams. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with opportunities in digital advertising and retransmission agreements offsetting traditional ad volatility. Successful debt reduction and content innovation will be critical to maintaining competitiveness in a fragmented media landscape.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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