investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of HF Foods Group Inc. (HFFG)

Previous Close$3.27
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$3.27

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

HF Foods Group Inc. operates as a foodservice distributor specializing in Asian cuisine, serving restaurants, supermarkets, and other foodservice providers across the U.S. The company sources, imports, and distributes a wide range of Asian food products, including fresh produce, frozen seafood, and dry goods. Its vertically integrated supply chain and regional distribution centers enable efficient logistics, catering primarily to the growing demand for ethnic and specialty foods. HF Foods differentiates itself through deep supplier relationships, localized inventory management, and a focus on underserved niche markets. The company competes in the highly fragmented food distribution sector, where scale and regional expertise are critical. While it faces competition from national broadline distributors, HF Foods maintains a strong position in the Asian foodservice segment by offering tailored product assortments and reliable delivery services. Its market positioning is further reinforced by cultural expertise and a customer-centric approach, though macroeconomic pressures and supply chain volatility remain ongoing challenges.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

HF Foods reported revenue of $1.20 billion for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, reflecting its scale in the specialty food distribution market. However, the company posted a net loss of $48.5 million, with diluted EPS of -$0.92, indicating significant profitability challenges. Operating cash flow was $22.6 million, while capital expenditures totaled $12.5 million, suggesting moderate reinvestment needs relative to cash generation.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s negative net income and EPS highlight strained earnings power, likely due to margin compression or operational inefficiencies. With $20.7 million in free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capex), HF Foods demonstrates some ability to generate liquidity, but its capital efficiency metrics remain under pressure given the net loss and elevated debt levels.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

HF Foods holds $14.5 million in cash and equivalents against $209.9 million in total debt, indicating a leveraged balance sheet. The debt-to-equity ratio appears elevated, though further details on covenants or maturity profiles would be needed for a full assessment. The company’s financial health is constrained by its negative profitability and reliance on debt financing.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Revenue trends suggest stable demand for the company’s niche offerings, but profitability remains a concern. HF Foods does not pay a dividend, consistent with its focus on preserving capital amid operational challenges. Growth prospects may hinge on margin improvement initiatives or strategic acquisitions in the fragmented food distribution space.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely prices HF Foods at a discount due to its unprofitability and leveraged position. Investors may await signs of operational turnaround or debt reduction before assigning higher multiples. The absence of dividends further limits appeal to income-focused shareholders.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

HF Foods benefits from its specialized focus on Asian cuisine and regional distribution network, but macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures pose risks. The outlook depends on its ability to restore profitability, manage debt, and capitalize on niche market opportunities. Strategic partnerships or supply chain optimizations could enhance its positioning in the long term.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), CIK 0001680873

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount