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Intrinsic Value of HealthStream, Inc. (HSTM)

Previous Close$32.03
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$32.03

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %4.54.54.54.64.64.64.64.74.74.74.74.74.74.74.84.84.84.84.84.84.84.84.84.84.9
Revenue, $305319333348364381399417437457479501525550576604632663694728763800839879922
Variable operating expenses, $m252263275288301315329345361378395414434454476499522547574601630661693726761
Fixed operating expenses, $m3235384144485257616772788592100109118128139150163177192208226
Total operating expenses, $m284298313329345363381402422445467492519546576608640675713751793838885934987
Operating income, $m21212020191817161513119630-4-8-12-18-24-30-38-46-56-66
EBITDA, $m62646567687071727375767677777878777776747270666358
Interest expense (income), $m1131414141515151616161717181819192021212223232425
Earnings before tax, $m207765421-1-3-5-8-11-14-18-22-27-33-38-45-52-61-70-80-91
Tax expense, $m6222111000000000000000000
Net income, $m155544321-1-3-5-8-11-14-18-22-27-33-38-45-52-61-70-80-91

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m3874054234424634845065305555816086376676987327668038428829249691016106511171171
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m3874054234424634845065305555816086376676987327668038428829249691016106511171171
Average production assets, $m232242253265277290303318332348364381400418438459481504528554581609638669702
Working capital, $m-52-54-56-59-62-64-67-71-74-77-81-85-89-93-97-102-107-112-117-123-129-135-142-149-156
Total debt, $m335342349357365374383392402412423435447459473487501517533550568586606627648
Total liabilities, $m155162169177185194203212222232243255267279293307321337353370388406426447468
Total equity, $m232243254265278290304318333348365382400419439460482505529555581609639670702
Debt-to-equity ratio0.0751.3791.3471.3161.2861.2571.2291.2031.1781.1531.1301.1081.0861.0661.0461.0281.0100.9930.9760.9610.9460.9310.9180.9040.892
Adjusted equity ratio0.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.6000.600

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m155544321-1-3-5-8-11-14-18-22-27-33-38-45-52-61-70-80-91
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m4143454749515456596264677174778185899398103108113118124
Funds from operations, $m56485051535455575858595960605959585755535047433833
Change in working capital, $m-2-2-2-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-4-4-4-4-5-5-5-5-6-6-6-7-7-7
Cash from operations, $m58515254555758606162636364646463636260585653504540
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-41-43-45-47-49-51-54-56-59-62-64-67-71-74-77-81-85-89-93-98-103-108-113-118-124
New CAPEX, $m-10-10-11-12-12-13-13-14-15-16-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-27-28-29-31-32
Total CAPEX, $m-51-53-56-59-61-64-67-70-74-77-81-85-89-93-97-102-107-112-118-123-129-136-142-149-156
Free cash flow, $m7-3-4-5-6-7-9-10-13-15-18-21-25-29-34-39-44-50-57-65-73-82-93-104-116
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m013151618202225273134394348546066748290100111122135149
Retained Cash Flow, $m-30-11-11-12-12-13-13-14-15-16-16-17-18-19-20-21-22-23-24-25-27-28-29-31-33
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m157
Cash available for distribution, $m134000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m128000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100989694918986848179767370676461585552494643403734