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Intrinsic Value of H World Group Limited (HTHT)

Previous Close$37.51
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$37.51

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %57.955.352.750.448.145.943.941.940.138.336.735.133.632.230.829.528.327.126.025.024.023.022.121.320.4
Revenue, $34552536438193612319518243626623438307554374476175810538171440286194567525991313434902449278358185197464153948832411956488149410671852153022784391278231423373811440636282
Variable operating expenses, $m197983073846949705911045361525522195023115654364876038378252841114872148930219681992574365333401142769605436810685106785612311061283713055456159426601933193923284590
Fixed operating expenses, $m50165442590564076951754281838879963410453113411230513351144861571717053185032007521782236332564227821301863275235536
Total operating expenses, $m248143618052854769981114871600942276853204444461216142908366251127177150265319826852590082335106442954635456885687284985848641063847913083277159728461936469123320126
Operating income, $m9738174632908246197709491061401553892233003156374395276036618184981096478145221719027012467454316869140314395083639635620278830519701114118502951437342217316157
EBITDA, $m111511969432545514887890311792017258024803535074748871467170691149812221111620044212449527575563544395451340356963047128238884780310897057133214941616997519494642
Interest expense (income), $m1435217140216762107591649824617359365150272623100918138359187321250628331597434085562522721951918053115716914463151793190220617626943303267372
Earnings before tax, $m8302152922506139435601908964113077318736326413536690450274368013990915712015901571104203337026061693309488416558651990346436737790792496441201167909214048784
Tax expense, $m224241296766106481625124203353095058871316990641357411836382454723244294241985490107036668935621124708140373917379192135139260391231533553793172
Net income, $m6061111631829428788439386543895464136775192819267840367002496502663685877160114690614843601902503241592630408783795295469881857727847040207852573710255612

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m119549185605283498426254631228921170132543818813542635682364620849833886732035899299311884761155450312013207525825969328296024136944751696091640844937883399496268072116733873140601537
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m119549185605283498426254631228921170132543818813542635682364620849833886732035899299311884761155450312013207525825969328296024136944751696091640844937883399496268072116733873140601537
Average production assets, $m649231007961539572314833427975002547197971021695143134319801232706297365592348837676454181844194010932997140251431782856122466240280742643480195442811871522796846339391676355575
Working capital, $m172762682240968615979121813311719153727187238087952690972014397283712995651717451224639229092593732076474416259782447470533926076511392196139115711686905720318141
Total debt, $m5428510052516905026897941246161542089840812875491815578252294634589734683026626569682899341085212214063053180487792295132228929214361578644482974655154397673582518168431298391677
Total liabilities, $m8368412992419844929837844186064481992780713169481844977255234534883724712425629509583193331088152114092452180781782298072128958613361872634485914555183796673876508171371198421076
Total equity, $m35865556828504912787618936827635139763156440679070510938621495016201961126978983565428466350960396227747791984888112410834155088271922534823650198288804223502016242180461
Debt-to-equity ratio1.0000.9751.1821.3221.4201.4931.5481.5921.6281.6601.6881.7131.7361.7571.7781.7971.8151.8331.8491.8651.8811.8961.9101.9231.937
Adjusted equity ratio0.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.300

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m6061111631829428788439386543895464136775192819267840367002496502663685877160114690614843601902503241592630408783795295469881857727847040207852573710255612
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m14132231346452917955117801719124735351104918768045930001256331678272217932901013757044819646126657720369647511195943147119817965532178485
Funds from operations, $m7474133942175834078518937721811265516151122792831702743504858950278931810449871368699177446122782072897890365354345673305663569696872885114061032229012434097
Change in working capital, $m6335954614146206292962141899584208033510900714603019323425269532672841788652894166286882281710120861234082149229017902322131431251937529574863449084
Cash from operations, $m11393848761213449222733531954235811761189211709972418143368074625906271028397581111593145539018858042419461307504138733384837297599203073648048985013
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-1413-2231-3464-5291-7955-11780-17191-24735-35110-49187-68045-93000-125633-167827-221793-290101-375704-481964-612665-772036-964751-1195943-1471198-1796553-2178485
New CAPEX, $m-23806-35873-53162-77525-111314-157457-219543-301898-409648-548780-726174-949627-1227844-1570414-1987759-2491057-3092147-3803418-4637679-5608024-6727690-8009917-9467813-11114231-12961659
Total CAPEX, $m-25219-38104-56626-82816-119269-169237-236734-326633-444758-597967-794219-1042627-1353477-1738241-2209552-2781158-3467851-4285381-5250344-6380060-7692441-9205860-10939011-12910784-15140144
Free cash flow, $m-24080-34256-49014-69367-96996-133918-182499-245457-325836-426969-552406-705820-890887-1111139-1369794-1669564-2012461-2399577-2830883-3305019-3819104-4368563-4946981-5545980-6155131
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m47810540737838211219415848922090130378041223255213573012795356012304141569174197867024678753045678372062945006675392837640301275356248793414101772051168572013315430
Retained Cash Flow, $m-16789-19817-29368-42827-61492-86983-121280-166775-226298-303158-401154-524594-678287-867531-1098081-1376113-1708168-2101090-2561954-3097993-3716521-4424850-5230223-6139740-7160299
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-6941
Cash available for distribution, $m0000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.405.675.956.256.566.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1810.6911.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0415.8016.5917.42
PV of cash for distribution, $m0000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %291252100000000000000000000