Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
Revenue, $ | | 727 | 725 | 725 | 726 | 729 | 734 | 741 | 749 | 758 | 769 | 782 | 796 | 812 | 829 | 848 | 869 | 891 | 914 | 940 | 967 | 996 | 1026 | 1059 | 1094 | 1131 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 463 | 461 | 461 | 462 | 464 | 467 | 471 | 476 | 482 | 489 | 497 | 506 | 516 | 527 | 539 | 552 | 566 | 581 | 598 | 615 | 633 | 653 | 674 | 696 | 719 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 177 | 192 | 208 | 226 | 245 | 266 | 289 | 313 | 340 | 369 | 400 | 434 | 471 | 511 | 555 | 602 | 653 | 708 | 769 | 834 | 905 | 982 | 1065 | 1156 | 1254 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 640 | 653 | 669 | 688 | 709 | 733 | 760 | 789 | 822 | 858 | 897 | 940 | 987 | 1038 | 1094 | 1154 | 1219 | 1289 | 1367 | 1449 | 1538 | 1635 | 1739 | 1852 | 1973 |
Operating income, $m | | 88 | 72 | 55 | 38 | 20 | 1 | -19 | -41 | -64 | -89 | -115 | -144 | -175 | -209 | -246 | -286 | -329 | -376 | -427 | -482 | -542 | -608 | -680 | -757 | -842 |
EBITDA, $m | | 95 | 79 | 62 | 45 | 27 | 8 | -12 | -34 | -57 | -82 | -108 | -137 | -168 | -202 | -238 | -278 | -321 | -367 | -418 | -473 | -533 | -599 | -670 | -748 | -832 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 57 | 249 | 249 | 249 | 249 | 249 | 250 | 250 | 251 | 251 | 252 | 253 | 254 | 255 | 256 | 258 | 259 | 261 | 262 | 264 | 266 | 268 | 270 | 273 | 275 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 31 | -177 | -193 | -211 | -229 | -248 | -269 | -291 | -314 | -340 | -368 | -397 | -429 | -464 | -502 | -543 | -588 | -636 | -689 | -746 | -808 | -876 | -950 | -1030 | -1117 |
Tax expense, $m | | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 23 | -177 | -193 | -211 | -229 | -248 | -269 | -291 | -314 | -340 | -368 | -397 | -429 | -464 | -502 | -543 | -588 | -636 | -689 | -746 | -808 | -876 | -950 | -1030 | -1117 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1433 | 1428 | 1428 | 1430 | 1437 | 1446 | 1459 | 1475 | 1494 | 1516 | 1541 | 1569 | 1600 | 1634 | 1671 | 1711 | 1754 | 1801 | 1851 | 1905 | 1961 | 2022 | 2087 | 2155 | 2228 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1433 | 1428 | 1428 | 1430 | 1437 | 1446 | 1459 | 1475 | 1494 | 1516 | 1541 | 1569 | 1600 | 1634 | 1671 | 1711 | 1754 | 1801 | 1851 | 1905 | 1961 | 2022 | 2087 | 2155 | 2228 |
Average production assets, $m | | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 47 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 53 |
Working capital, $m | | -53 | -53 | -53 | -53 | -53 | -54 | -54 | -55 | -55 | -56 | -57 | -58 | -59 | -61 | -62 | -63 | -65 | -67 | -69 | -71 | -73 | -75 | -77 | -80 | -83 |
Total debt, $m | | 6226 | 6222 | 6222 | 6224 | 6230 | 6238 | 6250 | 6264 | 6281 | 6301 | 6324 | 6349 | 6377 | 6407 | 6441 | 6477 | 6516 | 6558 | 6603 | 6651 | 6702 | 6757 | 6815 | 6876 | 6942 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 1290 | 1286 | 1285 | 1287 | 1293 | 1302 | 1313 | 1327 | 1345 | 1364 | 1387 | 1412 | 1440 | 1470 | 1504 | 1540 | 1579 | 1621 | 1666 | 1714 | 1765 | 1820 | 1878 | 1940 | 2005 |
Total equity, $m | | 143 | 143 | 143 | 143 | 144 | 145 | 146 | 147 | 149 | 152 | 154 | 157 | 160 | 163 | 167 | 171 | 175 | 180 | 185 | 190 | 196 | 202 | 209 | 216 | 223 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 9.921 | 43.591 | 43.586 | 43.494 | 43.322 | 43.074 | 42.756 | 42.373 | 41.931 | 41.436 | 40.893 | 40.308 | 39.685 | 39.029 | 38.347 | 37.641 | 36.916 | 36.177 | 35.427 | 34.669 | 33.907 | 33.143 | 32.381 | 31.622 | 30.869 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 23 | -177 | -193 | -211 | -229 | -248 | -269 | -291 | -314 | -340 | -368 | -397 | -429 | -464 | -502 | -543 | -588 | -636 | -689 | -746 | -808 | -876 | -950 | -1030 | -1117 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 29 | -170 | -187 | -204 | -222 | -241 | -262 | -284 | -307 | -333 | -360 | -390 | -422 | -457 | -494 | -535 | -580 | -628 | -680 | -737 | -799 | -867 | -940 | -1020 | -1107 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 29 | -170 | -187 | -204 | -222 | -241 | -261 | -283 | -307 | -332 | -359 | -389 | -421 | -455 | -493 | -534 | -578 | -626 | -678 | -735 | -797 | -865 | -938 | -1018 | -1104 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -10 | -10 | -10 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -7 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -8 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -9 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -11 | -11 | -12 | -12 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 22 | -177 | -193 | -211 | -229 | -248 | -269 | -291 | -314 | -340 | -367 | -397 | -429 | -464 | -502 | -543 | -587 | -636 | -688 | -745 | -808 | -875 | -949 | -1029 | -1116 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 177 | 193 | 211 | 229 | 249 | 270 | 292 | 316 | 342 | 370 | 400 | 432 | 467 | 505 | 547 | 592 | 640 | 693 | 751 | 813 | 881 | 955 | 1036 | 1124 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -1985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -6 | -7 | -7 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 2751 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 788 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 752 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |