Fiscal year | | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Revenue, $ | | 19219 | 19559 | 19937 | 20352 | 20806 | 21299 | 21832 | 22405 | 23020 | 23678 | 24380 | 25127 | 25922 | 26765 | 27660 | 28607 | 29609 | 30669 | 31788 | 32970 | 34216 | 35531 | 36917 | 38377 | 39915 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 14299 | 14552 | 14833 | 15142 | 15480 | 15847 | 16243 | 16669 | 17127 | 17616 | 18138 | 18694 | 19286 | 19913 | 20579 | 21284 | 22029 | 22818 | 23650 | 24530 | 25457 | 26435 | 27466 | 28552 | 29697 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 3972 | 4310 | 4676 | 5074 | 5505 | 5973 | 6480 | 7031 | 7629 | 8277 | 8981 | 9744 | 10573 | 11471 | 12446 | 13504 | 14652 | 15898 | 17249 | 18715 | 20306 | 22032 | 23905 | 25937 | 28141 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 18271 | 18862 | 19509 | 20216 | 20985 | 21820 | 22723 | 23700 | 24756 | 25893 | 27119 | 28438 | 29859 | 31384 | 33025 | 34788 | 36681 | 38716 | 40899 | 43245 | 45763 | 48467 | 51371 | 54489 | 57838 |
Operating income, $m | | 948 | 697 | 428 | 137 | -178 | -520 | -892 | -1296 | -1736 | -2216 | -2740 | -3312 | -3937 | -4619 | -5366 | -6181 | -7072 | -8046 | -9111 | -10275 | -11547 | -12936 | -14454 | -16112 | -17923 |
EBITDA, $m | | 2382 | 2155 | 1911 | 1648 | 1365 | 1058 | 724 | 360 | -37 | -470 | -944 | -1463 | -2031 | -2654 | -3336 | -4083 | -4903 | -5801 | -6786 | -7864 | -9046 | -10341 | -11760 | -13313 | -15013 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 236 | 191 | 202 | 213 | 226 | 240 | 255 | 272 | 290 | 309 | 329 | 351 | 374 | 398 | 425 | 452 | 482 | 513 | 545 | 580 | 617 | 655 | 696 | 739 | 784 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 712 | 506 | 226 | -77 | -405 | -760 | -1147 | -1568 | -2026 | -2525 | -3069 | -3663 | -4311 | -5018 | -5790 | -6633 | -7554 | -8559 | -9657 | -10855 | -12163 | -13591 | -15150 | -16851 | -18707 |
Tax expense, $m | | 192 | 137 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 519 | 370 | 165 | -77 | -405 | -760 | -1147 | -1568 | -2026 | -2525 | -3069 | -3663 | -4311 | -5018 | -5790 | -6633 | -7554 | -8559 | -9657 | -10855 | -12163 | -13591 | -15150 | -16851 | -18707 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 24792 | 25231 | 25718 | 26254 | 26840 | 27476 | 28163 | 28903 | 29696 | 30544 | 31450 | 32414 | 33439 | 34527 | 35681 | 36903 | 38196 | 39563 | 41007 | 42531 | 44139 | 45835 | 47623 | 49506 | 51490 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 24792 | 25231 | 25718 | 26254 | 26840 | 27476 | 28163 | 28903 | 29696 | 30544 | 31450 | 32414 | 33439 | 34527 | 35681 | 36903 | 38196 | 39563 | 41007 | 42531 | 44139 | 45835 | 47623 | 49506 | 51490 |
Average production assets, $m | | 13991 | 14239 | 14514 | 14816 | 15147 | 15506 | 15894 | 16311 | 16759 | 17237 | 17748 | 18292 | 18871 | 19485 | 20136 | 20826 | 21556 | 22327 | 23142 | 24002 | 24910 | 25867 | 26875 | 27938 | 29058 |
Working capital, $m | | 1730 | 1760 | 1794 | 1832 | 1873 | 1917 | 1965 | 2016 | 2072 | 2131 | 2194 | 2261 | 2333 | 2409 | 2489 | 2575 | 2665 | 2760 | 2861 | 2967 | 3079 | 3198 | 3323 | 3454 | 3592 |
Total debt, $m | | 4774 | 5038 | 5330 | 5652 | 6003 | 6385 | 6797 | 7241 | 7716 | 8225 | 8769 | 9347 | 9962 | 10615 | 11308 | 12041 | 12817 | 13637 | 14503 | 15418 | 16383 | 17400 | 18473 | 19603 | 20793 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 14875 | 15139 | 15431 | 15753 | 16104 | 16486 | 16898 | 17342 | 17817 | 18326 | 18870 | 19448 | 20063 | 20716 | 21409 | 22142 | 22918 | 23738 | 24604 | 25519 | 26484 | 27501 | 28574 | 29704 | 30894 |
Total equity, $m | | 9917 | 10092 | 10287 | 10502 | 10736 | 10990 | 11265 | 11561 | 11878 | 12218 | 12580 | 12966 | 13376 | 13811 | 14272 | 14761 | 15278 | 15825 | 16403 | 17012 | 17656 | 18334 | 19049 | 19802 | 20596 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.595 | 0.473 | 0.490 | 0.508 | 0.526 | 0.546 | 0.567 | 0.588 | 0.610 | 0.632 | 0.654 | 0.676 | 0.699 | 0.721 | 0.744 | 0.766 | 0.788 | 0.810 | 0.831 | 0.853 | 0.873 | 0.894 | 0.913 | 0.933 | 0.952 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 519 | 370 | 165 | -77 | -405 | -760 | -1147 | -1568 | -2026 | -2525 | -3069 | -3663 | -4311 | -5018 | -5790 | -6633 | -7554 | -8559 | -9657 | -10855 | -12163 | -13591 | -15150 | -16851 | -18707 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 1434 | 1457 | 1483 | 1512 | 1543 | 1578 | 1615 | 1656 | 1699 | 1746 | 1796 | 1849 | 1905 | 1966 | 2030 | 2098 | 2169 | 2245 | 2326 | 2411 | 2500 | 2595 | 2694 | 2800 | 2910 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1954 | 1827 | 1648 | 1435 | 1139 | 817 | 468 | 88 | -326 | -779 | -1273 | -1814 | -2405 | -3052 | -3760 | -4536 | -5385 | -6314 | -7331 | -8444 | -9663 | -10997 | -12456 | -14052 | -15797 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 27 | 31 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 44 | 48 | 52 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 67 | 72 | 76 | 81 | 85 | 90 | 95 | 101 | 106 | 112 | 118 | 125 | 131 | 138 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1927 | 1796 | 1614 | 1398 | 1098 | 773 | 420 | 36 | -382 | -838 | -1337 | -1881 | -2477 | -3128 | -3841 | -4621 | -5475 | -6409 | -7432 | -8551 | -9775 | -11115 | -12580 | -14183 | -15935 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -1434 | -1457 | -1483 | -1512 | -1543 | -1578 | -1615 | -1656 | -1699 | -1746 | -1796 | -1849 | -1905 | -1966 | -2030 | -2098 | -2169 | -2245 | -2326 | -2411 | -2500 | -2595 | -2694 | -2800 | -2910 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -220 | -248 | -275 | -303 | -331 | -359 | -388 | -417 | -448 | -479 | -511 | -544 | -579 | -614 | -651 | -690 | -730 | -771 | -815 | -860 | -908 | -957 | -1009 | -1063 | -1120 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -1655 | -1705 | -1758 | -1814 | -1874 | -1937 | -2003 | -2073 | -2147 | -2224 | -2307 | -2393 | -2484 | -2580 | -2681 | -2787 | -2899 | -3017 | -3141 | -3271 | -3408 | -3552 | -3703 | -3862 | -4030 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 272 | 91 | -144 | -417 | -776 | -1164 | -1583 | -2036 | -2528 | -3063 | -3643 | -4274 | -4961 | -5708 | -6522 | -7408 | -8374 | -9426 | -10572 | -11822 | -13183 | -14667 | -16284 | -18045 | -19965 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 1290 | 84 | 339 | 631 | 1010 | 1418 | 1857 | 2332 | 2846 | 3402 | 4005 | 4660 | 5371 | 6143 | 6983 | 7897 | 8891 | 9973 | 11150 | 12431 | 13826 | 15345 | 16999 | 18799 | 20759 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -1012 | -176 | -195 | -214 | -234 | -254 | -275 | -296 | -317 | -339 | -362 | -386 | -410 | -435 | -462 | -489 | -517 | -547 | -578 | -610 | -643 | -678 | -715 | -753 | -794 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -550 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.51 | 5.79 | 6.08 | 6.38 | 6.70 | 7.04 | 7.39 | 7.76 | 8.14 | 8.55 | 8.98 | 9.43 | 9.90 | 10.39 | 10.91 | 11.46 | 12.03 | 12.63 | 13.27 | 13.93 | 14.63 | 15.36 | 16.13 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 94 | 94 | 92 | 90 | 86 | 81 | 76 | 69 | 62 | 55 | 48 | 41 | 35 | 29 | 24 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |