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Intrinsic Value of International Paper Company (IP)

Previous Close$53.82
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$53.82

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2023 and quarterly data as of 2023-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045204620472048

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %1.61.81.92.12.22.42.52.62.72.93.03.13.23.33.33.43.53.63.63.73.83.83.94.04.0
Revenue, $19219195591993720352208062129921832224052302023678243802512725922267652766028607296093066931788329703421635531369173837739915
Variable operating expenses, $m14299145521483315142154801584716243166691712717616181381869419286199132057921284220292281823650245302545726435274662855229697
Fixed operating expenses, $m39724310467650745505597364807031762982778981974410573114711244613504146521589817249187152030622032239052593728141
Total operating expenses, $m18271188621950920216209852182022723237002475625893271192843829859313843302534788366813871640899432454576348467513715448957838
Operating income, $m948697428137-178-520-892-1296-1736-2216-2740-3312-3937-4619-5366-6181-7072-8046-9111-10275-11547-12936-14454-16112-17923
EBITDA, $m238221551911164813651058724360-37-470-944-1463-2031-2654-3336-4083-4903-5801-6786-7864-9046-10341-11760-13313-15013
Interest expense (income), $m236191202213226240255272290309329351374398425452482513545580617655696739784
Earnings before tax, $m712506226-77-405-760-1147-1568-2026-2525-3069-3663-4311-5018-5790-6633-7554-8559-9657-10855-12163-13591-15150-16851-18707
Tax expense, $m192137610000000000000000000000
Net income, $m519370165-77-405-760-1147-1568-2026-2525-3069-3663-4311-5018-5790-6633-7554-8559-9657-10855-12163-13591-15150-16851-18707

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m24792252312571826254268402747628163289032969630544314503241433439345273568136903381963956341007425314413945835476234950651490
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m24792252312571826254268402747628163289032969630544314503241433439345273568136903381963956341007425314413945835476234950651490
Average production assets, $m13991142391451414816151471550615894163111675917237177481829218871194852013620826215562232723142240022491025867268752793829058
Working capital, $m1730176017941832187319171965201620722131219422612333240924892575266527602861296730793198332334543592
Total debt, $m4774503853305652600363856797724177168225876993479962106151130812041128171363714503154181638317400184731960320793
Total liabilities, $m14875151391543115753161041648616898173421781718326188701944820063207162140922142229182373824604255192648427501285742970430894
Total equity, $m9917100921028710502107361099011265115611187812218125801296613376138111427214761152781582516403170121765618334190491980220596
Debt-to-equity ratio0.5950.4730.4900.5080.5260.5460.5670.5880.6100.6320.6540.6760.6990.7210.7440.7660.7880.8100.8310.8530.8730.8940.9130.9330.952
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m519370165-77-405-760-1147-1568-2026-2525-3069-3663-4311-5018-5790-6633-7554-8559-9657-10855-12163-13591-15150-16851-18707
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m1434145714831512154315781615165616991746179618491905196620302098216922452326241125002595269428002910
Funds from operations, $m1954182716481435113981746888-326-779-1273-1814-2405-3052-3760-4536-5385-6314-7331-8444-9663-10997-12456-14052-15797
Change in working capital, $m273134374144485255596367727681859095101106112118125131138
Cash from operations, $m1927179616141398109877342036-382-838-1337-1881-2477-3128-3841-4621-5475-6409-7432-8551-9775-11115-12580-14183-15935
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-1434-1457-1483-1512-1543-1578-1615-1656-1699-1746-1796-1849-1905-1966-2030-2098-2169-2245-2326-2411-2500-2595-2694-2800-2910
New CAPEX, $m-220-248-275-303-331-359-388-417-448-479-511-544-579-614-651-690-730-771-815-860-908-957-1009-1063-1120
Total CAPEX, $m-1655-1705-1758-1814-1874-1937-2003-2073-2147-2224-2307-2393-2484-2580-2681-2787-2899-3017-3141-3271-3408-3552-3703-3862-4030
Free cash flow, $m27291-144-417-776-1164-1583-2036-2528-3063-3643-4274-4961-5708-6522-7408-8374-9426-10572-11822-13183-14667-16284-18045-19965
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m1290843396311010141818572332284634024005466053716143698378978891997311150124311382615345169991879920759
Retained Cash Flow, $m-1012-176-195-214-234-254-275-296-317-339-362-386-410-435-462-489-517-547-578-610-643-678-715-753-794
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-550
Cash available for distribution, $m0000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.005.255.515.796.086.386.707.047.397.768.148.558.989.439.9010.3910.9111.4612.0312.6313.2713.9314.6315.3616.13
PV of cash for distribution, $m0000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %9494929086817669625548413529241915129754221