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Intrinsic Value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Previous Close$156.01
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$156.01

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates as a diversified healthcare conglomerate with three core segments: Pharmaceuticals, Medical Devices, and Consumer Health. The Pharmaceuticals division drives growth through innovative therapies in immunology, oncology, and infectious diseases, while Medical Devices focuses on surgical, orthopedic, and interventional solutions. Consumer Health, now spun off as Kenvue, historically provided steady revenue from over-the-counter products like Tylenol and Listerine. JNJ’s vertically integrated model and global scale afford it leadership in high-margin biologics and medtech, competing with firms like Pfizer and Medtronic. Its R&D prowess, bolstered by strategic acquisitions, ensures a robust pipeline, though pricing pressures and regulatory scrutiny persist. The company’s brand equity and diversified revenue streams mitigate sector-specific risks, positioning it as a resilient player in volatile markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY2024, JNJ reported $88.8 billion in revenue, with net income of $14.1 billion, reflecting a 15.8% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $5.79, supported by $24.3 billion in operating cash flow. Capital expenditures of $4.4 billion indicate disciplined reinvestment, yielding a free cash flow margin of approximately 22.5%. The company’s scale enables cost efficiencies, though margin compression in Consumer Health post-spinoff warrants monitoring.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

JNJ’s earnings power is underscored by its Pharmaceuticals segment, which contributes over 50% of revenue with high incremental margins. ROIC remains robust due to patented drugs and scalable manufacturing. The Medical Devices division benefits from recurring revenue via elective procedures, though supply chain costs weigh on returns. Capital allocation prioritizes R&D (14% of Pharma sales) and dividends, with limited share buybacks.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

JNJ maintains a strong balance sheet with $24.1 billion in cash and equivalents against $36.6 billion of total debt, yielding a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of ~1.0x. Liquidity is ample, with AA-rated credit facilitating strategic flexibility. The spin-off of Kenvue streamlined liabilities, though litigation reserves (e.g., talc lawsuits) remain a contingent risk.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic growth hinges on Pharma innovations like Carvykti (myeloma therapy) and device pipeline expansions. Dividend consistency is a hallmark, with a $4.91 annual payout per share (2.8% yield) and 61 consecutive years of increases. Near-term growth may lag peers due to patent cliffs, but late-stage trials and geographic expansion offer offsets.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Trading at ~15x forward earnings, JNJ’s valuation reflects its defensive profile and moderate growth outlook. Investors price in stable cash flows and dividend reliability, though Pharma pipeline execution is critical to justify premium multiples versus pure-play biotechs.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

JNJ’s competitive moat lies in its integrated R&D, global distribution, and brand trust. Near-term headwinds include biosimilar competition and macroeconomic pressures, but long-term prospects are bolstered by aging demographics and unmet medical needs. Strategic pivots toward high-growth therapeutic areas and digital health partnerships could enhance upside.

Sources

10-K (CIK: 0000200406), Investor Presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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