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Intrinsic Value of LGI Homes, Inc. (LGIH)

Previous Close$54.43
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$54.43

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

LGI Homes, Inc. operates as a homebuilder specializing in affordable entry-level and move-up homes, primarily targeting first-time buyers and cost-conscious consumers. The company focuses on high-growth markets across the U.S., leveraging land acquisition strategies to secure scalable development opportunities. Its vertically integrated model includes in-house construction, sales, and financing services, enhancing cost efficiency and customer retention. LGI Homes differentiates itself through streamlined operations and rapid inventory turnover, positioning it as a nimble competitor in the fragmented residential construction sector. The company’s emphasis on entry-level housing aligns with demographic trends favoring affordability, though it faces cyclical risks tied to interest rates and economic conditions. Its market share remains modest but growing, supported by disciplined capital allocation and a focus on underserved suburban markets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

LGI Homes reported revenue of $2.20 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $196.1 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 8.9%. Diluted EPS stood at $8.30, though operating cash flow was negative at -$143.7 million, likely due to working capital fluctuations. Capital expenditures were minimal at -$1.95 million, indicating a lean operational model with limited reinvestment needs.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is driven by high-volume home sales and efficient land utilization, though its negative operating cash flow raises questions about short-term liquidity management. Return metrics are buoyed by low capital intensity, but leverage and interest rate exposure could pressure margins if housing demand softens.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

LGI Homes held $53.2 million in cash against $1.48 billion in total debt, signaling elevated leverage. The absence of dividends suggests a focus on debt management and growth funding. The balance sheet reflects typical homebuilder risks, including inventory-heavy assets and cyclical liabilities.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is tied to housing market expansion, with no dividend payouts as capital is reinvested into land development. The company’s strategy prioritizes market penetration over shareholder returns, though its debt load may constrain aggressive expansion.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Valuation metrics likely reflect optimism around affordable housing demand, but investor sentiment may be tempered by cash flow volatility and leverage. The P/E ratio of approximately 10x (based on trailing EPS) suggests moderate expectations relative to sector peers.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

LGI Homes’ scalable model and focus on affordability provide resilience in downturns, but macroeconomic headwinds pose risks. Long-term prospects hinge on sustained demand for entry-level homes and disciplined debt management.

Sources

Company 10-K filings, Bloomberg data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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