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Intrinsic Value of Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)

Previous Close$71.42
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$71.42

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-06-30.

Stock price and intrinsic value

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-14.5-13.5-12.6-11.7-10.9-10.1-9.3-8.6-7.9-7.3-6.7-6.1-5.5-5.0-4.5-4.0-3.6-3.2-2.7-2.4-2.0-1.6-1.3-1.0-0.7
Revenue, $127441102096328503757868136177564551974818449742233989378936183472334832423153307930182968292929002880
Variable operating expenses, $m8347721863095570496444634046369734043156294527662613248223702274219321242065201719761944191919001886
Fixed operating expenses, $m958103911281224132814401563169618401996216623502550276730023257353438344160451448975313576562556787
Total operating expenses, $m9305825774376794629259035609539352445152511151165163524953725531572759586225653168737257768481558673
Operating income, $m34392763219517101287910568252-47-334-615-893-1174-1459-1753-2059-2379-2716-3072-3451-3856-4290-4755-5255-5793
EBITDA, $m37993071246219431492109373340190-208-498-784-1072-1363-1662-1971-2295-2635-2994-3375-3782-4217-4683-5184-5723
Interest expense (income), $m199434381339304275252232216202190180172165159153149145142139137135133132131
Earnings before tax, $m323923281814137198363531720-263-536-805-1074-1346-1624-1912-2212-2528-2861-3214-3590-3993-4424-4888-5387-5925
Tax expense, $m87562949037026517185500000000000000000
Net income, $m236517001324100171846323114-263-536-805-1074-1346-1624-1912-2212-2528-2861-3214-3590-3993-4424-4888-5387-5925

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m1401912123105959354833674956795621057175300494646454388416839803819368335663468338733193265322231903168
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m1401912123105959354833674956795621057175300494646454388416839803819368335663468338733193265322231903168
Average production assets, $m3237279924472160192517311569143413201224114210731013962919882850824801782766754744737732
Working capital, $m2753238020811837163714721334121911231041971912862818782750723700681665652641633626622
Total debt, $m10861953484657595688362945805539550504758451042994119396538343722362635443476341933713333330332813266
Total liabilities, $m9813848674176548583552464757434740023710346232513071291727862674257824962428237123232285225522332218
Total equity, $m42063637317928062501224820391863171515901484139313161250119411461105107010411016996979967957950
Debt-to-equity ratio1.1852.9862.9993.0173.0373.0613.0883.1163.1463.1763.2063.2373.2663.2953.3213.3463.3693.3893.4063.4213.4333.4423.4483.4523.452
Adjusted equity ratio0.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.3000.300

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m236517001324100171846323114-263-536-805-1074-1346-1624-1912-2212-2528-2861-3214-3590-3993-4424-4888-5387-5925
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m361308267233206183165149137126117109102969288848178767473727170
Funds from operations, $m2725200815911234923647396164-126-410-688-965-1244-1528-1820-2125-2444-2780-3135-3514-3918-4351-4816-5316-5854
Change in working capital, $m-467-372-300-244-200-165-137-115-97-82-69-59-51-43-37-32-27-23-19-16-13-11-8-6-4
Cash from operations, $m31922380189114781123812533279-29-328-619-906-1193-1484-1784-2093-2417-2757-3116-3498-3905-4341-4808-5310-5850
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-361-308-267-233-206-183-165-149-137-126-117-109-102-96-92-88-84-81-78-76-74-73-72-71-70
New CAPEX, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total CAPEX, $m-361-308-267-233-206-183-165-149-137-126-117-109-102-96-92-88-84-81-78-76-74-73-72-71-70
Free cash flow, $m2832207216241245917629368129-166-454-736-1015-1295-1581-1875-2181-2501-2838-3195-3574-3980-4414-4880-5380-5920
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m00000000483546519421233152818302142246828103171355539644401486953735915
Retained Cash Flow, $m1199569458372305252210176148125106907766564841352925201613107
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m3135
Cash available for distribution, $m6926252719911543116283053627000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m660222861700123787057734415800000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10010010010010010010010010098948881736354443527201510743