Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -14.5 | -13.5 | -12.6 | -11.7 | -10.9 | -10.1 | -9.3 | -8.6 | -7.9 | -7.3 | -6.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -5.0 | -4.5 | -4.0 | -3.6 | -3.2 | -2.7 | -2.4 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.7 |
Revenue, $ | | 12744 | 11020 | 9632 | 8503 | 7578 | 6813 | 6177 | 5645 | 5197 | 4818 | 4497 | 4223 | 3989 | 3789 | 3618 | 3472 | 3348 | 3242 | 3153 | 3079 | 3018 | 2968 | 2929 | 2900 | 2880 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 8347 | 7218 | 6309 | 5570 | 4964 | 4463 | 4046 | 3697 | 3404 | 3156 | 2945 | 2766 | 2613 | 2482 | 2370 | 2274 | 2193 | 2124 | 2065 | 2017 | 1976 | 1944 | 1919 | 1900 | 1886 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 958 | 1039 | 1128 | 1224 | 1328 | 1440 | 1563 | 1696 | 1840 | 1996 | 2166 | 2350 | 2550 | 2767 | 3002 | 3257 | 3534 | 3834 | 4160 | 4514 | 4897 | 5313 | 5765 | 6255 | 6787 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 9305 | 8257 | 7437 | 6794 | 6292 | 5903 | 5609 | 5393 | 5244 | 5152 | 5111 | 5116 | 5163 | 5249 | 5372 | 5531 | 5727 | 5958 | 6225 | 6531 | 6873 | 7257 | 7684 | 8155 | 8673 |
Operating income, $m | | 3439 | 2763 | 2195 | 1710 | 1287 | 910 | 568 | 252 | -47 | -334 | -615 | -893 | -1174 | -1459 | -1753 | -2059 | -2379 | -2716 | -3072 | -3451 | -3856 | -4290 | -4755 | -5255 | -5793 |
EBITDA, $m | | 3799 | 3071 | 2462 | 1943 | 1492 | 1093 | 733 | 401 | 90 | -208 | -498 | -784 | -1072 | -1363 | -1662 | -1971 | -2295 | -2635 | -2994 | -3375 | -3782 | -4217 | -4683 | -5184 | -5723 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 199 | 434 | 381 | 339 | 304 | 275 | 252 | 232 | 216 | 202 | 190 | 180 | 172 | 165 | 159 | 153 | 149 | 145 | 142 | 139 | 137 | 135 | 133 | 132 | 131 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 3239 | 2328 | 1814 | 1371 | 983 | 635 | 317 | 20 | -263 | -536 | -805 | -1074 | -1346 | -1624 | -1912 | -2212 | -2528 | -2861 | -3214 | -3590 | -3993 | -4424 | -4888 | -5387 | -5925 |
Tax expense, $m | | 875 | 629 | 490 | 370 | 265 | 171 | 85 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 2365 | 1700 | 1324 | 1001 | 718 | 463 | 231 | 14 | -263 | -536 | -805 | -1074 | -1346 | -1624 | -1912 | -2212 | -2528 | -2861 | -3214 | -3590 | -3993 | -4424 | -4888 | -5387 | -5925 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 14019 | 12123 | 10595 | 9354 | 8336 | 7495 | 6795 | 6210 | 5717 | 5300 | 4946 | 4645 | 4388 | 4168 | 3980 | 3819 | 3683 | 3566 | 3468 | 3387 | 3319 | 3265 | 3222 | 3190 | 3168 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 14019 | 12123 | 10595 | 9354 | 8336 | 7495 | 6795 | 6210 | 5717 | 5300 | 4946 | 4645 | 4388 | 4168 | 3980 | 3819 | 3683 | 3566 | 3468 | 3387 | 3319 | 3265 | 3222 | 3190 | 3168 |
Average production assets, $m | | 3237 | 2799 | 2447 | 2160 | 1925 | 1731 | 1569 | 1434 | 1320 | 1224 | 1142 | 1073 | 1013 | 962 | 919 | 882 | 850 | 824 | 801 | 782 | 766 | 754 | 744 | 737 | 732 |
Working capital, $m | | 2753 | 2380 | 2081 | 1837 | 1637 | 1472 | 1334 | 1219 | 1123 | 1041 | 971 | 912 | 862 | 818 | 782 | 750 | 723 | 700 | 681 | 665 | 652 | 641 | 633 | 626 | 622 |
Total debt, $m | | 10861 | 9534 | 8465 | 7595 | 6883 | 6294 | 5805 | 5395 | 5050 | 4758 | 4510 | 4299 | 4119 | 3965 | 3834 | 3722 | 3626 | 3544 | 3476 | 3419 | 3371 | 3333 | 3303 | 3281 | 3266 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 9813 | 8486 | 7417 | 6548 | 5835 | 5246 | 4757 | 4347 | 4002 | 3710 | 3462 | 3251 | 3071 | 2917 | 2786 | 2674 | 2578 | 2496 | 2428 | 2371 | 2323 | 2285 | 2255 | 2233 | 2218 |
Total equity, $m | | 4206 | 3637 | 3179 | 2806 | 2501 | 2248 | 2039 | 1863 | 1715 | 1590 | 1484 | 1393 | 1316 | 1250 | 1194 | 1146 | 1105 | 1070 | 1041 | 1016 | 996 | 979 | 967 | 957 | 950 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.185 | 2.986 | 2.999 | 3.017 | 3.037 | 3.061 | 3.088 | 3.116 | 3.146 | 3.176 | 3.206 | 3.237 | 3.266 | 3.295 | 3.321 | 3.346 | 3.369 | 3.389 | 3.406 | 3.421 | 3.433 | 3.442 | 3.448 | 3.452 | 3.452 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 2365 | 1700 | 1324 | 1001 | 718 | 463 | 231 | 14 | -263 | -536 | -805 | -1074 | -1346 | -1624 | -1912 | -2212 | -2528 | -2861 | -3214 | -3590 | -3993 | -4424 | -4888 | -5387 | -5925 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 361 | 308 | 267 | 233 | 206 | 183 | 165 | 149 | 137 | 126 | 117 | 109 | 102 | 96 | 92 | 88 | 84 | 81 | 78 | 76 | 74 | 73 | 72 | 71 | 70 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 2725 | 2008 | 1591 | 1234 | 923 | 647 | 396 | 164 | -126 | -410 | -688 | -965 | -1244 | -1528 | -1820 | -2125 | -2444 | -2780 | -3135 | -3514 | -3918 | -4351 | -4816 | -5316 | -5854 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -467 | -372 | -300 | -244 | -200 | -165 | -137 | -115 | -97 | -82 | -69 | -59 | -51 | -43 | -37 | -32 | -27 | -23 | -19 | -16 | -13 | -11 | -8 | -6 | -4 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 3192 | 2380 | 1891 | 1478 | 1123 | 812 | 533 | 279 | -29 | -328 | -619 | -906 | -1193 | -1484 | -1784 | -2093 | -2417 | -2757 | -3116 | -3498 | -3905 | -4341 | -4808 | -5310 | -5850 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -361 | -308 | -267 | -233 | -206 | -183 | -165 | -149 | -137 | -126 | -117 | -109 | -102 | -96 | -92 | -88 | -84 | -81 | -78 | -76 | -74 | -73 | -72 | -71 | -70 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -361 | -308 | -267 | -233 | -206 | -183 | -165 | -149 | -137 | -126 | -117 | -109 | -102 | -96 | -92 | -88 | -84 | -81 | -78 | -76 | -74 | -73 | -72 | -71 | -70 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 2832 | 2072 | 1624 | 1245 | 917 | 629 | 368 | 129 | -166 | -454 | -736 | -1015 | -1295 | -1581 | -1875 | -2181 | -2501 | -2838 | -3195 | -3574 | -3980 | -4414 | -4880 | -5380 | -5920 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 354 | 651 | 942 | 1233 | 1528 | 1830 | 2142 | 2468 | 2810 | 3171 | 3555 | 3964 | 4401 | 4869 | 5373 | 5915 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 1199 | 569 | 458 | 372 | 305 | 252 | 210 | 176 | 148 | 125 | 106 | 90 | 77 | 66 | 56 | 48 | 41 | 35 | 29 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 3135 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 6926 | 2527 | 1991 | 1543 | 1162 | 830 | 536 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 6602 | 2286 | 1700 | 1237 | 870 | 577 | 344 | 158 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 94 | 88 | 81 | 73 | 63 | 54 | 44 | 35 | 27 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 |