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Intrinsic Value of Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN)

Previous Close$13.68
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$13.68

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-14.8-13.8-12.9-12.0-11.1-10.3-9.6-8.8-8.1-7.5-6.9-6.3-5.7-5.2-4.7-4.2-3.7-3.3-2.9-2.5-2.1-1.7-1.4-1.1-0.8
Revenue, $821708617543482433391357328303282265250237226216208201196191187184181179178
Variable operating expenses, $m681587512450400359325296272252234220207196187180173167162158155152150149147
Fixed operating expenses, $m1421541671811972142322512732963213483784104454835245686176697267888559271006
Total operating expenses, $m823741679631597573557547545548555568585606632663697735779827881940100510761153
Operating income, $m-2-34-62-89-115-140-165-191-217-244-273-303-336-370-407-446-488-534-583-637-694-756-824-897-976
EBITDA, $m1096119-18-52-84-115-146-176-207-238-271-305-341-379-420-464-510-560-614-672-735-803-876-955
Interest expense (income), $m0-2-3-4-4-5-5-6-6-6-6-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7
Earnings before tax, $m-2-32-59-85-110-135-160-185-211-238-267-297-329-363-400-439-481-527-576-629-687-749-817-889-969
Tax expense, $m0000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m-2-32-59-85-110-135-160-185-211-238-267-297-329-363-400-439-481-527-576-629-687-749-817-889-969

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m829715623548487437395360331306285267252239228218210203198193189185183181179
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m829715623548487437395360331306285267252239228218210203198193189185183181179
Average production assets, $m691595519456406364329300276255238223210199190182175169165160157154152151149
Working capital, $m26232017151413111010988877766666666
Total debt, $m-56-79-97-112-124-134-142-149-155-160-164-168-171-174-176-178-179-181-182-183-184-184-185-185-186
Total liabilities, $m166143125110978779726661575350484644424140393837373636
Total equity, $m663572498439390350316288265245228214202191182175168163158154151148146145144
Debt-to-equity ratio0.000-0.097-0.158-0.221-0.287-0.355-0.424-0.494-0.564-0.634-0.702-0.769-0.833-0.894-0.952-1.006-1.056-1.102-1.143-1.180-1.212-1.239-1.261-1.278-1.291
Adjusted equity ratio0.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.800

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-2-32-59-85-110-135-160-185-211-238-267-297-329-363-400-439-481-527-576-629-687-749-817-889-969
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m111958271635650454138353330292726252423232222212121
Funds from operations, $m1096322-14-48-79-110-140-170-200-232-264-298-334-372-413-456-503-553-607-665-728-795-869-948
Change in working capital, $m-5-4-3-2-2-2-1-1-1-1-1-10000000000000
Cash from operations, $m1136725-12-46-78-109-139-169-200-231-264-298-334-372-413-456-503-553-607-665-728-795-869-948
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-111-95-82-71-63-56-50-45-41-38-35-33-30-29-27-26-25-24-23-23-22-22-21-21-21
New CAPEX, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total CAPEX, $m-111-95-82-71-63-56-50-45-41-38-35-33-30-29-27-26-25-24-23-23-22-22-21-21-21
Free cash flow, $m2-28-56-83-108-133-158-184-210-237-266-296-328-363-399-439-481-527-576-629-687-749-816-889-968
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0003569101132162191222253285319354392433476522572626684747815888968
Retained Cash Flow, $m1159274604940332823201714121098665433221
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-10
Cash available for distribution, $m844530000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m804120000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100958673584329191163110000000000