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Intrinsic Value of Morgan Stanley (MS)

Previous Close$121.70
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$121.70

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

Stock price and intrinsic value

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %14.714.213.813.312.912.512.111.811.411.110.810.510.210.09.79.59.39.18.98.78.58.38.18.07.8
Revenue, $705378056491645103849117246131908147909165324184229204703226827250683276357303936333510365174399022435157473681514704558337604698653910706101761404
Variable operating expenses, $m3068435045398664517451002573806434171916801408904698670109047120215132212145077158850173575189293206051223896242876263044284451307154331211
Fixed operating expenses, $m5667614966717239785485219246100321088411809128131390215084163661775719267209042268124609267012897131433341053700440149
Total operating expenses, $m363514119446537524135885665901735878194891024100855111483122949135299148578162834178117194479211974230660250597271847294477318556344158371360
Operating income, $m341863937045108514365839066007743238337693205103848115344127734141058155358170676187056204543223182243021264106286489310221335354361943390044
EBITDA, $m3753243207494915642164040723858149991423102199113870126480140073154695170391187210205199224409244889266693289875314489340595368250397516428456
Interest expense (income), $m144205901259669603956119562073630346408265223664626780369253708167249874305762427831780535829028542688114909739401197235100655
Earnings before tax, $m19767-19643-14562-8959-28053934112901929527982373864754158481702428286096371110814126226142647160118178680198375219248241343264708289390
Tax expense, $m53370000106230485210755510094128361579018965223722602029920340813851543232482445356159197651637147178135
Net income, $m14430-19643-14562-8959-28052872824114085204272729234705426915127760488703518089492145104133116886130436144814160051176181193237211254

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m12837714662616679418900521338824007326919530089033529737256041282545624450297055316360698966461672622179198586210093676010161731100550119011612851031385756
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m12837714662616679418900521338824007326919530089033529737256041282545624450297055316360698966461672622179198586210093676010161731100550119011612851031385756
Average production assets, $m19186219132492728247318913587940231449685011055679616976818675169826719071599327108534118363128841139999151868164478177863192059207102
Working capital, $m-17634-20141-22911-25962-29312-32977-36977-41331-46057-51176-56707-62671-69089-75984-83378-91293-99756-108789-118420-128676-139584-151174-163477-176525-190351
Total debt, $m1475312149173615098861529876155182115758381602048163057316615391695076173131517703911812445185761919060621957926201337120725592135662220285622743272350267243087625163652606953
Total liabilities, $m115540131964150114170104192049216066242276270801301767335304371543410619452673497847546290598154653599712787775890843084914555990495107110411565931247181
Total equity, $m1283814663166791890021339240072692030089335303725641283456245029755316606996646272622791998621093676101617110055119012128510138576
Debt-to-equity ratio28.080100.61789.43679.88671.69564.63958.53953.24448.63144.59841.06037.94735.19932.76530.60428.67926.96025.42224.04122.79821.67820.66519.74818.91618.159
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m14430-19643-14562-8959-28052872824114085204272729234705426915127760488703518089492145104133116886130436144814160051176181193237211254
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m33453837438349855649637871768046899410022111361233913637150341653418143198652170723673257682800030374328963557338412
Funds from operations, $m17775-15805-10179-39742844925015417221312942137314458415503164914755218688599037112010125839140559156205172814190425209076228809249666
Change in working capital, $m-2260-2507-2770-3051-3349-3666-4000-4354-4726-5119-5531-5964-6418-6895-7394-7916-8462-9034-9631-10256-10908-11590-12303-13048-13826
Cash from operations, $m20035-13299-7409-923619412916194172648534147424335137260995713328241694279106953120473134873150190166460183722202015221379241857263492
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-3345-3837-4383-4985-5649-6378-7176-8046-8994-10022-11136-12339-13637-15034-16534-18143-19865-21707-23673-25768-28000-30374-32896-35573-38412
New CAPEX, $m-2459-2727-3014-3319-3644-3988-4352-4737-5142-5569-6018-6489-6983-7501-8044-8612-9207-9829-10479-11158-11868-12610-13386-14196-15043
Total CAPEX, $m-5804-6565-7397-8305-9293-10366-11528-12783-14136-15591-17154-18828-20620-22535-24578-26755-29072-31535-34151-36926-39868-42984-46281-49769-53455
Free cash flow, $m14231-19863-14805-9228-31002549788913702200112684234218421665071259881697008019791400103338116039129534143854159031175098192089210038
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m021688168221144955381190000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m-963249-1825-2017-2221-2438-2669-2912-3169-3441-3726-4027-4342-4673-5019-5383-5763-6160-6576-7011-7466-7941-8438-8957-9499-10065
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1054922
Cash available for distribution, $m1059040000049771053216570231153019237825460395486264318744358524096761109027122068135913150593166141182590199972
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m100957000003189617888341111012973144001538015920160371576515149142441311311821104369019762963125105
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100523224202020202020202020202020202020202020202020