Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 14.7 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.0 | 7.8 |
Revenue, $ | | 70537 | 80564 | 91645 | 103849 | 117246 | 131908 | 147909 | 165324 | 184229 | 204703 | 226827 | 250683 | 276357 | 303936 | 333510 | 365174 | 399022 | 435157 | 473681 | 514704 | 558337 | 604698 | 653910 | 706101 | 761404 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 30684 | 35045 | 39866 | 45174 | 51002 | 57380 | 64341 | 71916 | 80140 | 89046 | 98670 | 109047 | 120215 | 132212 | 145077 | 158850 | 173575 | 189293 | 206051 | 223896 | 242876 | 263044 | 284451 | 307154 | 331211 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 5667 | 6149 | 6671 | 7239 | 7854 | 8521 | 9246 | 10032 | 10884 | 11809 | 12813 | 13902 | 15084 | 16366 | 17757 | 19267 | 20904 | 22681 | 24609 | 26701 | 28971 | 31433 | 34105 | 37004 | 40149 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 36351 | 41194 | 46537 | 52413 | 58856 | 65901 | 73587 | 81948 | 91024 | 100855 | 111483 | 122949 | 135299 | 148578 | 162834 | 178117 | 194479 | 211974 | 230660 | 250597 | 271847 | 294477 | 318556 | 344158 | 371360 |
Operating income, $m | | 34186 | 39370 | 45108 | 51436 | 58390 | 66007 | 74323 | 83376 | 93205 | 103848 | 115344 | 127734 | 141058 | 155358 | 170676 | 187056 | 204543 | 223182 | 243021 | 264106 | 286489 | 310221 | 335354 | 361943 | 390044 |
EBITDA, $m | | 37532 | 43207 | 49491 | 56421 | 64040 | 72385 | 81499 | 91423 | 102199 | 113870 | 126480 | 140073 | 154695 | 170391 | 187210 | 205199 | 224409 | 244889 | 266693 | 289875 | 314489 | 340595 | 368250 | 397516 | 428456 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 14420 | 59012 | 59669 | 60395 | 61195 | 62073 | 63034 | 64082 | 65223 | 66462 | 67803 | 69253 | 70816 | 72498 | 74305 | 76242 | 78317 | 80535 | 82902 | 85426 | 88114 | 90973 | 94011 | 97235 | 100655 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 19767 | -19643 | -14562 | -8959 | -2805 | 3934 | 11290 | 19295 | 27982 | 37386 | 47541 | 58481 | 70242 | 82860 | 96371 | 110814 | 126226 | 142647 | 160118 | 178680 | 198375 | 219248 | 241343 | 264708 | 289390 |
Tax expense, $m | | 5337 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1062 | 3048 | 5210 | 7555 | 10094 | 12836 | 15790 | 18965 | 22372 | 26020 | 29920 | 34081 | 38515 | 43232 | 48244 | 53561 | 59197 | 65163 | 71471 | 78135 |
Net income, $m | | 14430 | -19643 | -14562 | -8959 | -2805 | 2872 | 8241 | 14085 | 20427 | 27292 | 34705 | 42691 | 51277 | 60488 | 70351 | 80894 | 92145 | 104133 | 116886 | 130436 | 144814 | 160051 | 176181 | 193237 | 211254 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 128377 | 146626 | 166794 | 189005 | 213388 | 240073 | 269195 | 300890 | 335297 | 372560 | 412825 | 456244 | 502970 | 553163 | 606989 | 664616 | 726221 | 791985 | 862100 | 936760 | 1016173 | 1100550 | 1190116 | 1285103 | 1385756 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 128377 | 146626 | 166794 | 189005 | 213388 | 240073 | 269195 | 300890 | 335297 | 372560 | 412825 | 456244 | 502970 | 553163 | 606989 | 664616 | 726221 | 791985 | 862100 | 936760 | 1016173 | 1100550 | 1190116 | 1285103 | 1385756 |
Average production assets, $m | | 19186 | 21913 | 24927 | 28247 | 31891 | 35879 | 40231 | 44968 | 50110 | 55679 | 61697 | 68186 | 75169 | 82671 | 90715 | 99327 | 108534 | 118363 | 128841 | 139999 | 151868 | 164478 | 177863 | 192059 | 207102 |
Working capital, $m | | -17634 | -20141 | -22911 | -25962 | -29312 | -32977 | -36977 | -41331 | -46057 | -51176 | -56707 | -62671 | -69089 | -75984 | -83378 | -91293 | -99756 | -108789 | -118420 | -128676 | -139584 | -151174 | -163477 | -176525 | -190351 |
Total debt, $m | | 1475312 | 1491736 | 1509886 | 1529876 | 1551821 | 1575838 | 1602048 | 1630573 | 1661539 | 1695076 | 1731315 | 1770391 | 1812445 | 1857619 | 1906062 | 1957926 | 2013371 | 2072559 | 2135662 | 2202856 | 2274327 | 2350267 | 2430876 | 2516365 | 2606953 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 115540 | 131964 | 150114 | 170104 | 192049 | 216066 | 242276 | 270801 | 301767 | 335304 | 371543 | 410619 | 452673 | 497847 | 546290 | 598154 | 653599 | 712787 | 775890 | 843084 | 914555 | 990495 | 1071104 | 1156593 | 1247181 |
Total equity, $m | | 12838 | 14663 | 16679 | 18900 | 21339 | 24007 | 26920 | 30089 | 33530 | 37256 | 41283 | 45624 | 50297 | 55316 | 60699 | 66462 | 72622 | 79199 | 86210 | 93676 | 101617 | 110055 | 119012 | 128510 | 138576 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 28.080 | 100.617 | 89.436 | 79.886 | 71.695 | 64.639 | 58.539 | 53.244 | 48.631 | 44.598 | 41.060 | 37.947 | 35.199 | 32.765 | 30.604 | 28.679 | 26.960 | 25.422 | 24.041 | 22.798 | 21.678 | 20.665 | 19.748 | 18.916 | 18.159 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 14430 | -19643 | -14562 | -8959 | -2805 | 2872 | 8241 | 14085 | 20427 | 27292 | 34705 | 42691 | 51277 | 60488 | 70351 | 80894 | 92145 | 104133 | 116886 | 130436 | 144814 | 160051 | 176181 | 193237 | 211254 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 3345 | 3837 | 4383 | 4985 | 5649 | 6378 | 7176 | 8046 | 8994 | 10022 | 11136 | 12339 | 13637 | 15034 | 16534 | 18143 | 19865 | 21707 | 23673 | 25768 | 28000 | 30374 | 32896 | 35573 | 38412 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 17775 | -15805 | -10179 | -3974 | 2844 | 9250 | 15417 | 22131 | 29421 | 37314 | 45841 | 55031 | 64914 | 75521 | 86885 | 99037 | 112010 | 125839 | 140559 | 156205 | 172814 | 190425 | 209076 | 228809 | 249666 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -2260 | -2507 | -2770 | -3051 | -3349 | -3666 | -4000 | -4354 | -4726 | -5119 | -5531 | -5964 | -6418 | -6895 | -7394 | -7916 | -8462 | -9034 | -9631 | -10256 | -10908 | -11590 | -12303 | -13048 | -13826 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 20035 | -13299 | -7409 | -923 | 6194 | 12916 | 19417 | 26485 | 34147 | 42433 | 51372 | 60995 | 71332 | 82416 | 94279 | 106953 | 120473 | 134873 | 150190 | 166460 | 183722 | 202015 | 221379 | 241857 | 263492 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -3345 | -3837 | -4383 | -4985 | -5649 | -6378 | -7176 | -8046 | -8994 | -10022 | -11136 | -12339 | -13637 | -15034 | -16534 | -18143 | -19865 | -21707 | -23673 | -25768 | -28000 | -30374 | -32896 | -35573 | -38412 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -2459 | -2727 | -3014 | -3319 | -3644 | -3988 | -4352 | -4737 | -5142 | -5569 | -6018 | -6489 | -6983 | -7501 | -8044 | -8612 | -9207 | -9829 | -10479 | -11158 | -11868 | -12610 | -13386 | -14196 | -15043 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -5804 | -6565 | -7397 | -8305 | -9293 | -10366 | -11528 | -12783 | -14136 | -15591 | -17154 | -18828 | -20620 | -22535 | -24578 | -26755 | -29072 | -31535 | -34151 | -36926 | -39868 | -42984 | -46281 | -49769 | -53455 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 14231 | -19863 | -14805 | -9228 | -3100 | 2549 | 7889 | 13702 | 20011 | 26842 | 34218 | 42166 | 50712 | 59881 | 69700 | 80197 | 91400 | 103338 | 116039 | 129534 | 143854 | 159031 | 175098 | 192089 | 210038 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 21688 | 16822 | 11449 | 5538 | 119 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -963249 | -1825 | -2017 | -2221 | -2438 | -2669 | -2912 | -3169 | -3441 | -3726 | -4027 | -4342 | -4673 | -5019 | -5383 | -5763 | -6160 | -6576 | -7011 | -7466 | -7941 | -8438 | -8957 | -9499 | -10065 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 1054922 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 105904 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4977 | 10532 | 16570 | 23115 | 30192 | 37825 | 46039 | 54862 | 64318 | 74435 | 85240 | 96761 | 109027 | 122068 | 135913 | 150593 | 166141 | 182590 | 199972 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 100957 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3189 | 6178 | 8834 | 11110 | 12973 | 14400 | 15380 | 15920 | 16037 | 15765 | 15149 | 14244 | 13113 | 11821 | 10436 | 9019 | 7629 | 6312 | 5105 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 52 | 32 | 24 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |