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Intrinsic Value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Previous Close$429.03
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$429.03

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-06-30.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %16.015.414.914.414.013.513.112.712.311.911.611.310.910.610.410.19.89.69.49.28.98.78.68.48.2
Revenue, $28434232827237727543172049198655846263154271163279914689450699814511105041232037136320915044981656395181940719940582180889238045925933522820171306154633181323590613
Variable operating expenses, $m1373371585561822242085212376292697373050353437183859884320474821045363735950746584307266728000398787749631301053369114976212525891362143147872716026581734266
Fixed operating expenses, $m186932028222006238772590728109304983309035903389544226645858497565398558574635536895574816811768807595562103685112498122060132435
Total operating expenses, $m15603017883820423023239826353629784633553337680842189147100152437058223164483071241578524686359294772910379461134545123783713481511465828159122517247181866701
Operating income, $m1283111494341730451993222284502606162960093348243772564235054737755282725872076507947192517928038716799561121046344114262212452011354344147032115934141723912
EBITDA, $m150663175363202979233725267818305479346934392413442148496378555344619291688472763141843560929996102272211220201228178134149314622711590827172748818725912026486
Interest expense (income), $m391411928134151507316915189552120423677263882934932576360833988643998484375321858358638756978576107828619006597741105909114592
Earnings before tax, $m124397137506159630184249211535241661274805311146350868394156441199492189547321606795670814739585813320892237976559106651511623401264279137258114875051609320
Tax expense, $m335873712743100497475711465249741978401094734106422119124132891147777163835181120199688219596240904263671287959313832341355370597401626434516
Net income, $m90810100380116530134502154421176413200608227137256134287734322075359298399545442961489694539897593724651333712888778556848508922923100198410858791174804

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m400922462864531958608725693701787431890474100340211267961261254140738415658101737172192212521213422335517256536428116223075053335644836566263976441431678046785665062764
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m400922462864531958608725693701787431890474100340211267961261254140738415658101737172192212521213422335517256536428116223075053335644836566263976441431678046785665062764
Average production assets, $m26187930233934747039761445312051434358165065541373601482384091929110227741134706125551613856421525540167567418365282008598219240323884772597378281968430559993306954
Working capital, $m-28150-32499-37350-42740-48707-55288-62523-70452-79115-88556-98816-109940-121972-134958-148945-163983-180121-197412-215908-235665-256742-279197-303093-328495-355471
Total debt, $m2982053353703768274228874738735301115919376596937337308144049020829971381099955121092713304571458962159687117446251902684207152122516282443517264772028647913095310
Total liabilities, $m2405532777183191753652354162214724595342856020416760787567528444309394861042303115327512728051401310153921916869731845032201386921939762385865259006828071393037658
Total equity, $m160369185146212783243490277480314972356190401361450718504502562954626324694869768850848537934207102614611246491230021134257914626501590577172671218714262025106
Debt-to-equity ratio0.6101.6111.5761.5481.5241.5041.4881.4751.4641.4541.4471.4401.4351.4311.4271.4241.4221.4201.4181.4171.4161.4161.4151.4151.415
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m90810100380116530134502154421176413200608227137256134287734322075359298399545442961489694539897593724651333712888778556848508922923100198410858791174804
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m223522592929935344033936844863509255758964892728738156891019101265112347124308137192151044165908181834198871217070236483257166279177302574
Funds from operations, $m11316212630814646416890519378822127625153328472632102636060740364445031750080955530861400367708974476781724189472297742710655781159406125915013650551477378
Change in working capital, $m-3883-4349-4851-5390-5966-6581-7235-7929-8664-9441-10260-11124-12032-12986-13988-15038-16138-17290-18496-19757-21076-22455-23896-25402-26976
Cash from operations, $m11704513065715131617429519975522785725876829265532969037004741390446144051284156829462799069212776090583453291321999718410866541181861128304613904571504353
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-22352-25929-29935-34403-39368-44863-50925-57589-64892-72873-81568-91019-101265-112347-124308-137192-151044-165908-181834-198871-217070-236483-257166-279177-302574
New CAPEX, $m-36121-40460-45132-50144-55505-61224-67307-73763-80600-87827-95451-103483-111932-120809-130127-139897-150134-160853-172071-183805-196074-208900-222306-236316-250955
Total CAPEX, $m-58473-66389-75066-84547-94873-106087-118232-131352-145493-160699-177019-194502-213197-233157-254435-277090-301178-326762-353905-382676-413144-445383-479472-515492-553529
Free cash flow, $m58571642687625089748104882121770140536161303184197209348236884266939299644335137373555415038459728507770559313614509673511736478803574874965950824
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m6365-24777-27638-30707-33990-37492-41217-45171-49358-53783-58452-63371-68545-73981-79687-85670-91939-98503-105372-112558-120071-127926-136135-144714-153679
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m101743
Cash available for distribution, $m165407394914861259041708918427899318116132134839155565178432203568231100261156293868329368367789409267453941501951553439608552667439730251797145
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m157680357214151447349530845856663633681247188274770766707749877204757837327569761653666024954596486104249436448306482524420349
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100