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Intrinsic Value of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Previous Close$378.80
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$378.80

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-06-30.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %15.715.214.714.213.713.312.912.512.111.711.411.110.810.510.210.09.79.59.39.08.88.68.58.38.1
Revenue, $28360632661537448642756648620755077362163269916478375387579497569110838581200718132670614622711607872176398619311042109735230040625036662720083295025131947893454343
Variable operating expenses, $m131310151223173387197963225114255008287816323713362877405493451745501826555932614265677031744445816726894101976807106508811591971259398136596614791871599361
Fixed operating expenses, $m240292607228288306923330136132392034253546151500735433058948639586939575293816938863796171104346113215122839133280144609156900170237
Total operating expenses, $m1553391772952016752286552584152911403270193662484090284555665060755607746198906836607523248261389053639902721081153117830312820361392678151057516360871769598
Operating income, $m1282671493211728111989102277922596332946143329163747244202284696165230845808276430467099467817348586239408321028582112210312216301327404143967615587011684745
EBITDA, $m150619175182202595233059266781303970344838389601438480491697549478612055679662752538830926915076100524211016861204676131448614314001555709168771518277291976072
Interest expense (income), $m268510624120801370015496174801966522063246872754930664340443770541659459235051055437607206637672420788738575193075100863109139
Earnings before tax, $m125582138696160732185211212296242153274948310853350038392679438953489040543122601387664023731224803186880111962206104968211427571241653134660114578381575606
Tax expense, $m339073744843398500075732065381742368393094510106023118517132041146643162375179286197430216860237630259796283414308544335246363582393616425414
Net income, $m9167510124811733413520415497617677220071222692225552828665532043535699939647943901348473753379358632664248170241176626883421390640798301910642221150193

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m39988546052752802660286768555277659087650298582111050911234869137572515282401693012187065620618022267100248722127228572974727324357335301683835317415985445046524870623
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m39988546052752802660286768555277659087650298582111050911234869137572515282401693012187065620618022267100248722127228572974727324357335301683835317415985445046524870623
Average production assets, $m2612013008123449023937884477975072625725236439307218368066068986129982331105861122189613467511480850162463117785471943066211867423058762505196271718129424013181449
Working capital, $m-25525-29395-33704-38481-43759-49570-55947-62925-70538-78821-87812-97547-108065-119404-131604-144708-158759-173799-189876-207037-225330-244807-265523-287531-310891
Total debt, $m2656063019913424903873954370064916295515766171676887307665978511109426191041482114806812627561385935151800716593891810511197181921437762326865252158727284662948049
Total liabilities, $m2399312763163168153617204113314659545259015914926630557409228254359169441015807112239312370811360260149233216337141784836194614421181012301190249591227027912922374
Total equity, $m15995418421121121024114727422131063635060139432844203649394855029061129667720574826282472190684099488810891431189891129742914120671534127166394118018611948249
Debt-to-equity ratio0.4201.4421.4301.4201.4131.4071.4021.3991.3961.3941.3931.3921.3921.3921.3921.3921.3931.3941.3951.3951.3961.3971.3981.3991.400
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m9167510124811733413520415497617677220071222692225552828665532043535699939647943901348473753379358632664248170241176626883421390640798301910642221150193
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m22352258622978334149389894433650224566856375571469798628897198835109491120980133342146619160855176094192383209770228305248039269028291327
Funds from operations, $m11402712711014711716935319396522110825093628360831928335812440029744597049531454850460571766713573294580333687850495865110439821134712123105813332491441519
Change in working capital, $m-3464-3871-4308-4777-5278-5811-6377-6978-7613-8284-8991-9735-10517-11339-12201-13104-14050-15041-16077-17160-18293-19478-20715-22008-23360
Cash from operations, $m11749113098115142617413019924322691925731429058632689636640840928845570550583255984361791868023974699581837689458197581110622761154189125177313552581464879
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-22352-25862-29783-34149-38989-44336-50224-56685-63755-71469-79862-88971-98835-109491-120980-133342-146619-160855-176094-192383-209770-228305-248039-269028-291327
New CAPEX, $m-35444-39611-44089-48886-54009-59465-65262-71406-77906-84770-92005-99622-107628-116035-124855-134099-143781-153916-164519-175608-187202-199320-211985-225219-239049
Total CAPEX, $m-57796-65473-73873-83035-92998-103801-115486-128092-141662-156239-171867-188593-206463-225527-245835-267441-290400-314770-340613-367991-396972-427625-460024-494247-530376
Free cash flow, $m59695655087755391095106245123118141828162494185234210169237421267112299369334316372083412799456595503606553968607820665304726564791749861010934504
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m7406-24257-26999-29937-33074-36415-39965-43728-47708-51911-56342-61006-65909-71057-76458-82119-88048-94255-100748-107539-114638-122059-129815-137919-146388
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m101117
Cash available for distribution, $m1667374125150554611587317186703101863118766137526158258181079206106233460263259295625330679368547409352453221500282550666604505661934723091788115
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m158948373134317249047547926025165264696697331576064778077846477992763947371370039655006026154510484484228136205303952499620118
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100