Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 11.6 | 11.3 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 737 | 820 | 910 | 1007 | 1112 | 1224 | 1345 | 1474 | 1612 | 1760 | 1917 | 2085 | 2264 | 2454 | 2655 | 2869 | 3096 | 3336 | 3590 | 3859 | 4144 | 4444 | 4761 | 5096 | 5449 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 663 | 738 | 819 | 906 | 1000 | 1102 | 1210 | 1326 | 1451 | 1584 | 1725 | 1877 | 2037 | 2208 | 2390 | 2582 | 2786 | 3003 | 3231 | 3473 | 3729 | 4000 | 4285 | 4586 | 4904 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 172 | 186 | 202 | 219 | 238 | 258 | 280 | 304 | 330 | 358 | 388 | 421 | 457 | 496 | 538 | 583 | 633 | 687 | 745 | 809 | 877 | 952 | 1033 | 1121 | 1216 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 835 | 924 | 1021 | 1125 | 1238 | 1360 | 1490 | 1630 | 1781 | 1942 | 2113 | 2298 | 2494 | 2704 | 2928 | 3165 | 3419 | 3690 | 3976 | 4282 | 4606 | 4952 | 5318 | 5707 | 6120 |
Operating income, $m | | -98 | -104 | -111 | -118 | -127 | -136 | -146 | -156 | -168 | -182 | -196 | -212 | -230 | -250 | -272 | -297 | -323 | -353 | -386 | -423 | -463 | -507 | -557 | -611 | -671 |
EBITDA, $m | | -26 | -23 | -21 | -19 | -16 | -14 | -12 | -9 | -7 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -2 | -4 | -6 | -9 | -14 | -21 | -30 | -40 | -54 | -70 | -90 | -113 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 24 | 68 | 72 | 76 | 80 | 85 | 91 | 96 | 102 | 109 | 116 | 123 | 131 | 140 | 149 | 158 | 168 | 179 | 190 | 202 | 215 | 228 | 242 | 257 | 273 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -122 | -172 | -183 | -194 | -207 | -221 | -236 | -253 | -271 | -291 | -312 | -336 | -362 | -390 | -421 | -455 | -491 | -532 | -576 | -625 | -678 | -735 | -799 | -868 | -944 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -122 | -172 | -183 | -194 | -207 | -221 | -236 | -253 | -271 | -291 | -312 | -336 | -362 | -390 | -421 | -455 | -491 | -532 | -576 | -625 | -678 | -735 | -799 | -868 | -944 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 1445 | 1608 | 1784 | 1974 | 2179 | 2399 | 2635 | 2889 | 3160 | 3449 | 3758 | 4087 | 4437 | 4809 | 5204 | 5623 | 6068 | 6539 | 7037 | 7564 | 8121 | 8710 | 9332 | 9987 | 10679 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 1445 | 1608 | 1784 | 1974 | 2179 | 2399 | 2635 | 2889 | 3160 | 3449 | 3758 | 4087 | 4437 | 4809 | 5204 | 5623 | 6068 | 6539 | 7037 | 7564 | 8121 | 8710 | 9332 | 9987 | 10679 |
Average production assets, $m | | 783 | 871 | 967 | 1070 | 1181 | 1300 | 1428 | 1565 | 1712 | 1869 | 2036 | 2214 | 2404 | 2606 | 2820 | 3047 | 3288 | 3543 | 3813 | 4099 | 4401 | 4719 | 5056 | 5412 | 5786 |
Working capital, $m | | 38 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 57 | 62 | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 98 | 106 | 115 | 125 | 135 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 183 | 197 | 211 | 227 | 243 | 260 | 278 |
Total debt, $m | | 1694 | 1792 | 1898 | 2012 | 2135 | 2267 | 2409 | 2561 | 2723 | 2897 | 3082 | 3279 | 3489 | 3713 | 3950 | 4202 | 4468 | 4751 | 5050 | 5366 | 5700 | 6054 | 6426 | 6820 | 7235 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 867 | 965 | 1070 | 1184 | 1307 | 1439 | 1581 | 1733 | 1896 | 2069 | 2255 | 2452 | 2662 | 2885 | 3122 | 3374 | 3641 | 3923 | 4222 | 4539 | 4873 | 5226 | 5599 | 5992 | 6408 |
Total equity, $m | | 578 | 643 | 714 | 790 | 872 | 960 | 1054 | 1155 | 1264 | 1380 | 1503 | 1635 | 1775 | 1924 | 2082 | 2249 | 2427 | 2616 | 2815 | 3026 | 3249 | 3484 | 3733 | 3995 | 4272 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.047 | 2.635 | 2.512 | 2.403 | 2.308 | 2.225 | 2.150 | 2.085 | 2.026 | 1.974 | 1.927 | 1.885 | 1.848 | 1.814 | 1.784 | 1.756 | 1.731 | 1.708 | 1.688 | 1.669 | 1.652 | 1.636 | 1.622 | 1.609 | 1.597 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -122 | -172 | -183 | -194 | -207 | -221 | -236 | -253 | -271 | -291 | -312 | -336 | -362 | -390 | -421 | -455 | -491 | -532 | -576 | -625 | -678 | -735 | -799 | -868 | -944 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 72 | 81 | 90 | 100 | 110 | 122 | 134 | 147 | 161 | 176 | 193 | 210 | 228 | 248 | 269 | 291 | 314 | 339 | 365 | 393 | 423 | 454 | 487 | 521 | 558 |
Funds from operations, $m | | -50 | -91 | -93 | -95 | -97 | -99 | -102 | -106 | -109 | -114 | -119 | -126 | -133 | -142 | -152 | -164 | -177 | -193 | -211 | -232 | -255 | -282 | -312 | -347 | -386 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
Cash from operations, $m | | -54 | -95 | -97 | -100 | -102 | -105 | -108 | -112 | -117 | -122 | -128 | -134 | -142 | -152 | -162 | -175 | -189 | -205 | -224 | -245 | -270 | -297 | -328 | -364 | -404 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -72 | -81 | -90 | -100 | -110 | -122 | -134 | -147 | -161 | -176 | -193 | -210 | -228 | -248 | -269 | -291 | -314 | -339 | -365 | -393 | -423 | -454 | -487 | -521 | -558 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -81 | -88 | -95 | -103 | -111 | -119 | -128 | -137 | -147 | -157 | -167 | -178 | -190 | -202 | -214 | -227 | -241 | -255 | -270 | -286 | -302 | -319 | -337 | -355 | -375 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -154 | -169 | -185 | -203 | -221 | -241 | -262 | -284 | -308 | -333 | -360 | -388 | -418 | -449 | -483 | -518 | -555 | -594 | -635 | -679 | -724 | -773 | -823 | -877 | -933 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -207 | -264 | -283 | -302 | -323 | -346 | -370 | -397 | -425 | -455 | -487 | -523 | -560 | -601 | -645 | -693 | -744 | -799 | -859 | -924 | -994 | -1070 | -1152 | -1240 | -1337 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 330 | 353 | 378 | 405 | 434 | 465 | 498 | 533 | 571 | 611 | 654 | 700 | 750 | 803 | 860 | 922 | 988 | 1059 | 1135 | 1217 | 1305 | 1400 | 1503 | 1613 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -155 | -65 | -70 | -76 | -82 | -88 | -95 | -101 | -108 | -116 | -123 | -132 | -140 | -149 | -158 | -168 | -178 | -188 | -199 | -211 | -223 | -235 | -249 | -262 | -277 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 479 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 117 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 112 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 70 | 50 | 36 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |