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Intrinsic Value of NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH)

Previous Close$37.90
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$37.90

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

NMI Holdings, Inc. operates as a private mortgage insurance (MI) provider in the U.S., offering risk management solutions to lenders and investors in the residential mortgage market. The company primarily generates revenue through mortgage insurance premiums, which protect lenders against defaults on high loan-to-value (LTV) mortgages. NMIH serves a niche but critical segment of the housing finance ecosystem, enabling lenders to extend credit to borrowers with smaller down payments while mitigating risk. Its market position is strengthened by disciplined underwriting, strong relationships with mortgage originators, and a focus on high-quality loan portfolios. The company competes in a concentrated industry dominated by a few key players, differentiating itself through operational efficiency and a conservative risk appetite. NMIH’s business model is closely tied to U.S. housing market trends, interest rate movements, and regulatory frameworks governing mortgage lending.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, NMIH reported revenue of $650.97 million and net income of $360.11 million, reflecting a robust net margin of approximately 55.3%. The company’s earnings power is underscored by its high-margin premium income and disciplined expense management. Operating cash flow stood at $393.6 million, demonstrating strong cash conversion from underwriting activities. Capital expenditures were minimal at $6.9 million, indicating a capital-light business model focused on underwriting rather than asset-intensive operations.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

NMIH’s diluted EPS of $4.43 highlights its ability to generate substantial earnings relative to its share count. The company’s capital efficiency is evident in its low capital expenditure requirements and high return on equity, driven by prudent risk selection and premium pricing. Its operating cash flow coverage of net income suggests sustainable earnings quality, with minimal reinvestment needs to maintain profitability.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

NMIH maintains a solid balance sheet with $54.22 million in cash and equivalents and $415.15 million in total debt. The company’s leverage appears manageable given its strong cash flow generation and low operational risk profile. Its financial health is further supported by a lack of dividend payouts, allowing retained earnings to bolster capital reserves and support future growth or risk mitigation strategies.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

NMIH has demonstrated consistent growth in premium income, benefiting from steady demand for private mortgage insurance in a stabilizing housing market. The company does not currently pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest earnings into capital reserves or strategic initiatives. This aligns with its focus on maintaining financial flexibility and supporting long-term underwriting capacity in a cyclical industry.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market likely values NMIH based on its earnings stability, underwriting discipline, and exposure to U.S. housing market dynamics. Its high net margins and capital-efficient model suggest a premium valuation relative to more asset-intensive financial services firms. Investor expectations may center on sustained premium growth and loss ratio management in a normalized interest rate environment.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

NMIH’s key strategic advantages include its specialized underwriting expertise, conservative risk management, and scalable operating model. The outlook remains tied to U.S. mortgage origination volumes and housing affordability trends. Regulatory tailwinds supporting private MI as a counterpart to government-backed programs could present growth opportunities, while economic downturns may test underwriting resilience.

Sources

Company 10-K filings, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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