Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
Revenue, $ | | 5762 | 5728 | 5709 | 5706 | 5717 | 5742 | 5780 | 5831 | 5894 | 5969 | 6057 | 6157 | 6268 | 6392 | 6527 | 6675 | 6836 | 7009 | 7195 | 7395 | 7608 | 7835 | 8078 | 8335 | 8608 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 3532 | 3511 | 3500 | 3498 | 3504 | 3520 | 3543 | 3574 | 3613 | 3659 | 3713 | 3774 | 3842 | 3918 | 4001 | 4092 | 4190 | 4296 | 4411 | 4533 | 4664 | 4803 | 4952 | 5109 | 5277 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 769 | 834 | 905 | 982 | 1065 | 1156 | 1254 | 1360 | 1476 | 1602 | 1738 | 1885 | 2046 | 2220 | 2408 | 2613 | 2835 | 3076 | 3337 | 3621 | 3929 | 4263 | 4625 | 5018 | 5445 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 4301 | 4345 | 4405 | 4480 | 4569 | 4676 | 4797 | 4934 | 5089 | 5261 | 5451 | 5659 | 5888 | 6138 | 6409 | 6705 | 7025 | 7372 | 7748 | 8154 | 8593 | 9066 | 9577 | 10127 | 10722 |
Operating income, $m | | 1462 | 1383 | 1305 | 1226 | 1147 | 1066 | 983 | 896 | 805 | 709 | 606 | 497 | 380 | 254 | 118 | -30 | -190 | -364 | -553 | -759 | -985 | -1231 | -1499 | -1793 | -2114 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1807 | 1725 | 1645 | 1566 | 1486 | 1406 | 1324 | 1239 | 1151 | 1059 | 961 | 857 | 746 | 627 | 498 | 358 | 207 | 43 | -136 | -332 | -545 | -778 | -1034 | -1313 | -1618 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 18 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 1459 | 1384 | 1306 | 1228 | 1149 | 1068 | 985 | 897 | 806 | 709 | 606 | 497 | 379 | 252 | 115 | -34 | -195 | -370 | -561 | -769 | -995 | -1243 | -1513 | -1808 | -2131 |
Tax expense, $m | | 394 | 374 | 353 | 332 | 310 | 288 | 266 | 242 | 218 | 191 | 164 | 134 | 102 | 68 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 1065 | 1011 | 954 | 897 | 839 | 780 | 719 | 655 | 588 | 518 | 443 | 363 | 276 | 184 | 84 | -34 | -195 | -370 | -561 | -769 | -995 | -1243 | -1513 | -1808 | -2131 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 5359 | 5327 | 5309 | 5306 | 5317 | 5340 | 5375 | 5422 | 5481 | 5552 | 5633 | 5726 | 5829 | 5944 | 6070 | 6208 | 6357 | 6518 | 6691 | 6877 | 7075 | 7287 | 7512 | 7752 | 8006 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 5359 | 5327 | 5309 | 5306 | 5317 | 5340 | 5375 | 5422 | 5481 | 5552 | 5633 | 5726 | 5829 | 5944 | 6070 | 6208 | 6357 | 6518 | 6691 | 6877 | 7075 | 7287 | 7512 | 7752 | 8006 |
Average production assets, $m | | 2432 | 2417 | 2409 | 2408 | 2412 | 2423 | 2439 | 2460 | 2487 | 2519 | 2556 | 2598 | 2645 | 2697 | 2755 | 2817 | 2885 | 2958 | 3036 | 3121 | 3211 | 3307 | 3409 | 3517 | 3633 |
Working capital, $m | | 167 | 166 | 166 | 165 | 166 | 167 | 168 | 169 | 171 | 173 | 176 | 179 | 182 | 185 | 189 | 194 | 198 | 203 | 209 | 214 | 221 | 227 | 234 | 242 | 250 |
Total debt, $m | | -41 | -47 | -51 | -51 | -49 | -44 | -37 | -28 | -16 | -2 | 14 | 33 | 53 | 76 | 102 | 129 | 159 | 191 | 226 | 263 | 303 | 345 | 390 | 438 | 489 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 1072 | 1065 | 1062 | 1061 | 1063 | 1068 | 1075 | 1084 | 1096 | 1110 | 1127 | 1145 | 1166 | 1189 | 1214 | 1242 | 1271 | 1304 | 1338 | 1375 | 1415 | 1457 | 1502 | 1550 | 1601 |
Total equity, $m | | 4287 | 4261 | 4248 | 4245 | 4253 | 4272 | 4300 | 4338 | 4385 | 4441 | 4506 | 4580 | 4663 | 4755 | 4856 | 4966 | 5086 | 5215 | 5353 | 5502 | 5660 | 5830 | 6010 | 6201 | 6405 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.014 | -0.010 | -0.011 | -0.012 | -0.012 | -0.011 | -0.010 | -0.009 | -0.006 | -0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.007 | 0.011 | 0.016 | 0.020 | 0.025 | 0.030 | 0.036 | 0.041 | 0.046 | 0.052 | 0.057 | 0.063 | 0.068 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 | 0.800 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1065 | 1011 | 954 | 897 | 839 | 780 | 719 | 655 | 588 | 518 | 443 | 363 | 276 | 184 | 84 | -34 | -195 | -370 | -561 | -769 | -995 | -1243 | -1513 | -1808 | -2131 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 346 | 343 | 340 | 339 | 339 | 340 | 341 | 344 | 347 | 350 | 355 | 360 | 366 | 373 | 380 | 388 | 397 | 406 | 417 | 428 | 440 | 452 | 466 | 480 | 495 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1411 | 1353 | 1294 | 1236 | 1178 | 1120 | 1060 | 999 | 935 | 868 | 797 | 723 | 642 | 556 | 464 | 354 | 202 | 36 | -144 | -341 | -556 | -791 | -1047 | -1328 | -1636 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1412 | 1354 | 1295 | 1236 | 1178 | 1119 | 1059 | 997 | 933 | 866 | 795 | 720 | 639 | 553 | 460 | 350 | 197 | 31 | -149 | -347 | -562 | -797 | -1054 | -1336 | -1644 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -346 | -343 | -340 | -339 | -339 | -340 | -341 | -344 | -347 | -350 | -355 | -360 | -366 | -373 | -380 | -388 | -397 | -406 | -417 | -428 | -440 | -452 | -466 | -480 | -495 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | -10 | -16 | -21 | -27 | -32 | -37 | -42 | -47 | -52 | -57 | -62 | -68 | -73 | -79 | -84 | -90 | -96 | -102 | -109 | -115 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -346 | -343 | -340 | -339 | -344 | -350 | -357 | -365 | -373 | -382 | -392 | -402 | -413 | -425 | -437 | -450 | -464 | -479 | -495 | -512 | -530 | -548 | -568 | -589 | -611 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 1067 | 1012 | 954 | 897 | 834 | 769 | 702 | 632 | 560 | 484 | 403 | 318 | 226 | 128 | 23 | -100 | -267 | -448 | -645 | -859 | -1091 | -1345 | -1622 | -1924 | -2254 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 78 | 210 | 387 | 577 | 783 | 1007 | 1250 | 1515 | 1802 | 2116 | 2458 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -80 | 26 | 14 | 2 | -8 | -18 | -28 | -38 | -47 | -56 | -65 | -74 | -83 | -92 | -101 | -110 | -119 | -129 | -139 | -148 | -159 | -169 | -180 | -192 | -203 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 37 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1024 | 1032 | 965 | 899 | 826 | 750 | 673 | 594 | 513 | 427 | 338 | 244 | 143 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 976 | 934 | 824 | 721 | 618 | 521 | 431 | 349 | 273 | 205 | 145 | 93 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 98 | 97 | 95 | 93 | 91 | 88 | 85 | 81 | 78 |