investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Previous Close$171.03
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$171.03

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) operates as a leading less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in North America, specializing in regional, inter-regional, and national freight transportation. The company generates revenue primarily through freight shipping services, leveraging a network of service centers and advanced logistics technology to optimize efficiency. ODFL distinguishes itself through superior on-time delivery performance, low claims ratios, and a customer-centric approach, positioning it as a premium provider in the highly competitive LTL sector. The company’s focus on operational excellence and disciplined pricing has allowed it to consistently outperform peers in profitability metrics. Its asset-light model, combined with strategic investments in fleet modernization and terminal expansions, reinforces its competitive edge. ODFL’s market position is further strengthened by its ability to attract high-value shippers seeking reliability and service quality, enabling premium pricing power. The LTL industry remains fragmented, but ODFL’s scale and execution capabilities position it for sustained market share gains.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

In FY 2024, ODFL reported revenue of $5.81 billion and net income of $1.19 billion, reflecting robust top-line growth and disciplined cost management. The company’s diluted EPS of $5.48 underscores its earnings strength, supported by an operating cash flow of $1.66 billion. Capital expenditures of $771 million highlight ongoing investments in fleet and infrastructure, aligning with long-term efficiency goals. ODFL’s operating ratio remains industry-leading, demonstrating superior profitability.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

ODFL’s earnings power is evident in its high return on invested capital (ROIC), driven by pricing discipline and operational leverage. The company’s capital efficiency is further highlighted by its ability to generate substantial free cash flow, which funds growth initiatives and shareholder returns. With minimal debt ($60 million) and strong cash reserves ($109 million), ODFL maintains a conservative balance sheet, ensuring financial flexibility.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

ODFL’s balance sheet is exceptionally strong, with total debt of just $60 million against cash and equivalents of $109 million. The company’s low leverage and high liquidity provide a solid foundation for navigating economic cycles. Shareholders’ equity remains robust, supported by retained earnings and prudent capital allocation, reinforcing ODFL’s financial stability and low-risk profile.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

ODFL has demonstrated consistent revenue and earnings growth, outpacing industry averages. The company’s dividend policy, with a payout of $1.04 per share in FY 2024, reflects a balanced approach to returning capital while reinvesting for growth. Share repurchases and organic expansion initiatives further underscore ODFL’s commitment to long-term value creation.

Valuation And Market Expectations

ODFL trades at a premium valuation relative to peers, reflecting its superior profitability, growth prospects, and market positioning. Investors appear to price in sustained outperformance, given the company’s track record of execution and competitive advantages. Analysts project continued earnings growth, supported by pricing power and operational efficiency.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

ODFL’s strategic advantages include its best-in-class service network, technology-driven logistics, and disciplined cost controls. The outlook remains positive, with opportunities for market share gains and margin expansion. Macroeconomic headwinds may pose challenges, but ODFL’s resilient business model positions it well for long-term success.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations, Bloomberg

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount