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Intrinsic Value of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL)

Previous Close$164.85
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$164.85

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.10.20.40.70.91.11.31.51.61.82.02.12.32.42.52.72.82.93.03.13.23.3
Revenue, $5762572857095706571757425780583158945969605761576268639265276675683670097195739576087835807883358608
Variable operating expenses, $m3532351135003498350435203543357436133659371337743842391840014092419042964411453346644803495251095277
Fixed operating expenses, $m769834905982106511561254136014761602173818852046222024082613283530763337362139294263462550185445
Total operating expenses, $m430143454405448045694676479749345089526154515659588861386409670570257372774881548593906695771012710722
Operating income, $m146213831305122611471066983896805709606497380254118-30-190-364-553-759-985-1231-1499-1793-2114
EBITDA, $m180717251645156614861406132412391151105996185774662749835820743-136-332-545-778-1034-1313-1618
Interest expense (income), $m2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1-1-101123456891112141618
Earnings before tax, $m145913841306122811491068985897806709606497379252115-34-195-370-561-769-995-1243-1513-1808-2131
Tax expense, $m39437435333231028826624221819116413410268310000000000
Net income, $m1065101195489783978071965558851844336327618484-34-195-370-561-769-995-1243-1513-1808-2131

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m5359532753095306531753405375542254815552563357265829594460706208635765186691687770757287751277528006
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m5359532753095306531753405375542254815552563357265829594460706208635765186691687770757287751277528006
Average production assets, $m2432241724092408241224232439246024872519255625982645269727552817288529583036312132113307340935173633
Working capital, $m167166166165166167168169171173176179182185189194198203209214221227234242250
Total debt, $m-41-47-51-51-49-44-37-28-16-214335376102129159191226263303345390438489
Total liabilities, $m1072106510621061106310681075108410961110112711451166118912141242127113041338137514151457150215501601
Total equity, $m4287426142484245425342724300433843854441450645804663475548564966508652155353550256605830601062016405
Debt-to-equity ratio0.014-0.010-0.011-0.012-0.012-0.011-0.010-0.009-0.006-0.0040.0000.0030.0070.0110.0160.0200.0250.0300.0360.0410.0460.0520.0570.0630.068
Adjusted equity ratio0.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.8000.800

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1065101195489783978071965558851844336327618484-34-195-370-561-769-995-1243-1513-1808-2131
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m346343340339339340341344347350355360366373380388397406417428440452466480495
Funds from operations, $m141113531294123611781120106099993586879772364255646435420236-144-341-556-791-1047-1328-1636
Change in working capital, $m-2-1-10011122333444555667778
Cash from operations, $m141213541295123611781119105999793386679572063955346035019731-149-347-562-797-1054-1336-1644
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-346-343-340-339-339-340-341-344-347-350-355-360-366-373-380-388-397-406-417-428-440-452-466-480-495
New CAPEX, $m0000-5-10-16-21-27-32-37-42-47-52-57-62-68-73-79-84-90-96-102-109-115
Total CAPEX, $m-346-343-340-339-344-350-357-365-373-382-392-402-413-425-437-450-464-479-495-512-530-548-568-589-611
Free cash flow, $m1067101295489783476970263256048440331822612823-100-267-448-645-859-1091-1345-1622-1924-2254
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000078210387577783100712501515180221162458
Retained Cash Flow, $m-8026142-8-18-28-38-47-56-65-74-83-92-101-110-119-129-139-148-159-169-180-192-203
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m37
Cash available for distribution, $m102410329658998267506735945134273382441433600000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m97693482472161852143134927320514593481100000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10010010010010010010010010010010010010010010099989795939188858178