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Intrinsic Value of The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

Previous Close$139.40
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$139.40

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2022-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2023-06-30.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2022(a)2023202420252026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %4.0NaN
Revenue, $49611NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m48124NaN
Operating income, $m1487NaN
EBITDA, $m1798NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m895NaN
Tax expense, $m201NaN
Net income, $m695NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m221NaN
Total assets, $m75465NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m75244NaN
Average production assets, $m1528NaN
Working capital, $m-36716NaN
Total debt, $m6388NaN
Total liabilities, $m59574NaN
Total equity, $m15891NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.402NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.208NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m695NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m311NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m6849NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-257NaN
Free cash flow, $m7106NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-36716
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN

Company description

The Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles (RV). This segment's products include personal auto insurance; and special lines products, including insurance for motorcycles, ATVs, RVs, watercrafts, snowmobiles, and related products. The Commercial Lines segment provides auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, and business-related general liability and property insurance for autos, vans, pick-up trucks, and dump trucks used by small businesses; tractors, trailers, and straight trucks primarily used by regional general freight and expeditor-type businesses, and long-haul operators; dump trucks, log trucks, and garbage trucks used by dirt, sand and gravel, logging, garbage/debris removal, and coal-type businesses; and tow trucks and wreckers used in towing services and gas/service station businesses; as well as non-fleet and airport taxis, and black-car services. The Property segment writes residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters, as well as offers manufactured homes, personal umbrella insurance, and primary and excess flood insurance. The company offers policy issuance and claims adjusting services; and acts as an agent to homeowners, general liability, workers' compensation insurance, and other products. It also provides reinsurance services. The company sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as through mobile applications and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio.
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