Investor's Craft

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Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)

Previous Close	$247.49
Intrinsic Value	$373.26
Upside potential	+51%

Previous Close

$247.49

Intrinsic Value

$373.26

Potential

+51%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036	2037	2038	2039	2040	2041	2042	2043	2044	2045	2046	2047	2048	2049
INCOME STATEMENT
Revenue growth rate, %	13.6	13.2	12.8	12.4	12.0	11.7	11.3	11.0	10.7	10.4	10.1	9.9	9.6	9.4	9.2	9.0	8.8	8.6	8.4	8.2	8.1	7.9	7.8	7.6	7.5
Revenue, $	1740	1969	2220	2495	2795	3120	3474	3856	4269	4713	5192	5705	6256	6845	7474	8145	8861	9623	10433	11293	12206	13173	14199	15284	16432
Variable operating expenses, $m	870	985	1110	1248	1397	1560	1737	1928	2134	2357	2596	2853	3128	3422	3737	4073	4431	4811	5216	5646	6103	6587	7099	7642	8216
Fixed operating expenses, $m	304	330	358	388	421	457	496	538	584	633	687	746	809	878	952	1033	1121	1216	1320	1432	1554	1686	1829	1985	2153
Total operating expenses, $m	1174	1315	1468	1636	1818	2017	2233	2466	2718	2990	3283	3599	3937	4300	4689	5106	5552	6027	6536	7078	7657	8273	8928	9627	10369
Operating income, $m	566	655	752	859	976	1103	1241	1390	1551	1723	1909	2107	2319	2545	2785	3039	3309	3595	3896	4214	4549	4901	5270	5657	6063
EBITDA, $m	593	685	787	898	1020	1152	1296	1451	1619	1799	1992	2199	2420	2655	2905	3171	3453	3751	4066	4398	4748	5116	5503	5908	6332
Interest expense (income), $m	4	16	23	30	37	46	55	65	75	87	99	113	127	143	159	177	196	216	237	260	284	309	336	365	395
Earnings before tax, $m	562	639	730	830	939	1057	1186	1325	1475	1636	1809	1994	2192	2402	2625	2863	3114	3379	3660	3955	4265	4592	4934	5292	5667
Tax expense, $m	152	172	197	224	253	285	320	358	398	442	488	538	592	649	709	773	841	912	988	1068	1152	1240	1332	1429	1530
Net income, $m	410	466	533	606	685	772	866	967	1077	1195	1321	1456	1600	1753	1917	2090	2273	2467	2671	2887	3114	3352	3602	3863	4137
BALANCE SHEET
Cash and short-term investments, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total assets, $m	2436	2757	3108	3493	3912	4368	4863	5398	5976	6599	7268	7987	8758	9583	10464	11404	12405	13472	14606	15810	17088	18443	19878	21397	23004
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m	2436	2757	3108	3493	3912	4368	4863	5398	5976	6599	7268	7987	8758	9583	10464	11404	12405	13472	14606	15810	17088	18443	19878	21397	23004
Average production assets, $m	494	559	631	709	794	886	986	1095	1212	1339	1474	1620	1777	1944	2123	2313	2517	2733	2963	3207	3466	3741	4032	4341	4667
Working capital, $m	433	490	553	621	696	777	865	960	1063	1174	1293	1421	1558	1704	1861	2028	2206	2396	2598	2812	3039	3280	3535	3806	4091
Total debt, $m	406	566	742	935	1144	1372	1620	1887	2176	2487	2822	3182	3567	3979	4420	4890	5391	5924	6491	7093	7732	8409	9127	9887	10690
Total liabilities, $m	1218	1378	1554	1747	1956	2184	2431	2699	2988	3299	3634	3994	4379	4791	5232	5702	6203	6736	7303	7905	8544	9221	9939	10699	11502
Total equity, $m	1218	1378	1554	1747	1956	2184	2431	2699	2988	3299	3634	3994	4379	4791	5232	5702	6203	6736	7303	7905	8544	9221	9939	10699	11502
Debt-to-equity ratio	0.081	0.295	0.364	0.425	0.478	0.524	0.564	0.600	0.632	0.660	0.684	0.707	0.727	0.745	0.761	0.775	0.788	0.800	0.811	0.821	0.830	0.838	0.846	0.853	0.860
Adjusted equity ratio	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500	0.500
CASH FLOW
Net income, $m	410	466	533	606	685	772	866	967	1077	1195	1321	1456	1600	1753	1917	2090	2273	2467	2671	2887	3114	3352	3602	3863	4137
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m	27	31	35	39	44	49	55	61	68	75	83	92	101	110	121	132	144	156	170	184	199	215	232	250	270
Funds from operations, $m	437	497	567	645	729	821	921	1029	1145	1270	1404	1547	1701	1864	2037	2222	2417	2623	2841	3071	3313	3567	3834	4114	4407
Change in working capital, $m	52	57	63	68	75	81	88	95	103	111	119	128	137	147	157	167	178	190	202	214	227	241	255	270	286
Cash from operations, $m	385	440	505	576	655	740	833	933	1042	1159	1285	1419	1563	1717	1881	2054	2239	2434	2640	2857	3086	3326	3579	3844	4121
Maintenance CAPEX, $m	-27	-31	-35	-39	-44	-49	-55	-61	-68	-75	-83	-92	-101	-110	-121	-132	-144	-156	-170	-184	-199	-215	-232	-250	-270
New CAPEX, $m	-59	-65	-71	-78	-85	-92	-100	-109	-117	-126	-136	-146	-156	-167	-179	-191	-203	-216	-230	-244	-259	-275	-291	-308	-326
Total CAPEX, $m	-86	-96	-106	-117	-129	-142	-155	-170	-185	-202	-219	-237	-257	-278	-299	-323	-347	-373	-400	-428	-458	-490	-524	-559	-596
Free cash flow, $m	299	344	399	459	526	598	678	764	857	957	1066	1182	1307	1439	1581	1732	1892	2061	2240	2428	2627	2836	3055	3285	3525
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Retained Cash Flow, $m	-49	-160	-176	-192	-210	-228	-247	-268	-289	-311	-335	-359	-385	-412	-441	-470	-501	-533	-567	-602	-639	-677	-718	-760	-804
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m	59
Cash available for distribution, $m	309	184	223	267	316	370	430	496	568	646	731	823	921	1027	1141	1262	1391	1528	1673	1826	1988	2159	2338	2525	2722
Discount rate, %	4.90	5.15	5.40	5.67	5.96	6.25	6.57	6.89	7.24	7.60	7.98	8.38	8.80	9.24	9.70	10.19	10.70	11.23	11.79	12.38	13.00	13.65	14.33	15.05	15.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m	295	166	190	214	237	257	276	291	303	311	314	313	308	298	284	267	247	225	201	177	153	129	107	87	69
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Investor's Craft

Investor's Craft

Intrinsic Value of Piper Sandler Companies (PIPR)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

INCOME STATEMENT

BALANCE SHEET

CASH FLOW