Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.6 |
Revenue, $ | | 13546 | 14506 | 15520 | 16588 | 17715 | 18902 | 20153 | 21470 | 22857 | 24317 | 25853 | 27469 | 29169 | 30957 | 32837 | 34814 | 36891 | 39075 | 41371 | 43783 | 46317 | 48980 | 51778 | 54717 | 57804 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 6339 | 6789 | 7263 | 7763 | 8291 | 8846 | 9432 | 10048 | 10697 | 11380 | 12099 | 12856 | 13651 | 14488 | 15368 | 16293 | 17265 | 18287 | 19361 | 20490 | 21676 | 22923 | 24232 | 25607 | 27052 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 6760 | 7334 | 7958 | 8634 | 9368 | 10164 | 11028 | 11966 | 12983 | 14086 | 15284 | 16583 | 17992 | 19522 | 21181 | 22981 | 24935 | 27054 | 29354 | 31849 | 34556 | 37493 | 40680 | 44138 | 47890 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 13099 | 14123 | 15221 | 16397 | 17659 | 19010 | 20460 | 22014 | 23680 | 25466 | 27383 | 29439 | 31643 | 34010 | 36549 | 39274 | 42200 | 45341 | 48715 | 52339 | 56232 | 60416 | 64912 | 69745 | 74942 |
Operating income, $m | | 447 | 383 | 299 | 191 | 56 | -108 | -307 | -544 | -823 | -1150 | -1530 | -1969 | -2474 | -3052 | -3712 | -4460 | -5309 | -6266 | -7345 | -8557 | -9915 | -11436 | -13135 | -15029 | -17138 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1976 | 2022 | 2054 | 2069 | 2063 | 2035 | 1980 | 1895 | 1775 | 1616 | 1413 | 1159 | 850 | 477 | 34 | -487 | -1096 | -1802 | -2617 | -3551 | -4618 | -5832 | -7208 | -8764 | -10517 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 311 | 448 | 490 | 534 | 581 | 630 | 682 | 736 | 793 | 854 | 917 | 984 | 1055 | 1129 | 1207 | 1289 | 1375 | 1465 | 1560 | 1660 | 1765 | 1876 | 1992 | 2114 | 2242 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 135 | -65 | -191 | -343 | -525 | -738 | -989 | -1280 | -1616 | -2004 | -2447 | -2954 | -3529 | -4181 | -4918 | -5749 | -6683 | -7731 | -8905 | -10217 | -11681 | -13312 | -15126 | -17143 | -19380 |
Tax expense, $m | | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 99 | -65 | -191 | -343 | -525 | -738 | -989 | -1280 | -1616 | -2004 | -2447 | -2954 | -3529 | -4181 | -4918 | -5749 | -6683 | -7731 | -8905 | -10217 | -11681 | -13312 | -15126 | -17143 | -19380 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 16390 | 17552 | 18779 | 20072 | 21435 | 22872 | 24385 | 25979 | 27657 | 29423 | 31282 | 33238 | 35295 | 37458 | 39733 | 42125 | 44639 | 47281 | 50058 | 52977 | 56044 | 59266 | 62651 | 66207 | 69943 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 16390 | 17552 | 18779 | 20072 | 21435 | 22872 | 24385 | 25979 | 27657 | 29423 | 31282 | 33238 | 35295 | 37458 | 39733 | 42125 | 44639 | 47281 | 50058 | 52977 | 56044 | 59266 | 62651 | 66207 | 69943 |
Average production assets, $m | | 8195 | 8776 | 9389 | 10036 | 10718 | 11436 | 12193 | 12990 | 13829 | 14712 | 15641 | 16619 | 17647 | 18729 | 19866 | 21062 | 22319 | 23641 | 25029 | 26488 | 28022 | 29633 | 31325 | 33103 | 34971 |
Working capital, $m | | -786 | -841 | -900 | -962 | -1027 | -1096 | -1169 | -1245 | -1326 | -1410 | -1499 | -1593 | -1692 | -1796 | -1905 | -2019 | -2140 | -2266 | -2399 | -2539 | -2686 | -2841 | -3003 | -3174 | -3353 |
Total debt, $m | | 11207 | 12253 | 13357 | 14521 | 15748 | 17040 | 18403 | 19837 | 21347 | 22937 | 24610 | 26370 | 28221 | 30168 | 32216 | 34368 | 36631 | 39009 | 41509 | 44135 | 46895 | 49795 | 52842 | 56042 | 59404 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 14751 | 15797 | 16901 | 18065 | 19292 | 20584 | 21947 | 23381 | 24891 | 26481 | 28154 | 29914 | 31765 | 33712 | 35760 | 37912 | 40175 | 42553 | 45053 | 47679 | 50439 | 53339 | 56386 | 59586 | 62948 |
Total equity, $m | | 1639 | 1755 | 1878 | 2007 | 2144 | 2287 | 2439 | 2598 | 2766 | 2942 | 3128 | 3324 | 3529 | 3746 | 3973 | 4212 | 4464 | 4728 | 5006 | 5298 | 5604 | 5927 | 6265 | 6621 | 6994 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 4.746 | 6.385 | 6.525 | 6.655 | 6.774 | 6.885 | 6.988 | 7.084 | 7.173 | 7.255 | 7.332 | 7.404 | 7.471 | 7.534 | 7.593 | 7.648 | 7.699 | 7.747 | 7.793 | 7.835 | 7.875 | 7.913 | 7.948 | 7.981 | 8.013 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 99 | -65 | -191 | -343 | -525 | -738 | -989 | -1280 | -1616 | -2004 | -2447 | -2954 | -3529 | -4181 | -4918 | -5749 | -6683 | -7731 | -8905 | -10217 | -11681 | -13312 | -15126 | -17143 | -19380 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 1529 | 1639 | 1755 | 1878 | 2007 | 2144 | 2287 | 2439 | 2598 | 2766 | 2942 | 3128 | 3324 | 3529 | 3746 | 3973 | 4212 | 4464 | 4728 | 5006 | 5298 | 5604 | 5927 | 6265 | 6621 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1628 | 1574 | 1564 | 1534 | 1483 | 1405 | 1299 | 1159 | 982 | 762 | 495 | 175 | -205 | -652 | -1173 | -1776 | -2471 | -3267 | -4177 | -5211 | -6383 | -7707 | -9200 | -10877 | -12759 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -53 | -56 | -59 | -62 | -65 | -69 | -73 | -76 | -80 | -85 | -89 | -94 | -99 | -104 | -109 | -115 | -121 | -127 | -133 | -140 | -147 | -154 | -162 | -170 | -179 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 1681 | 1629 | 1623 | 1596 | 1548 | 1474 | 1371 | 1235 | 1062 | 847 | 584 | 268 | -107 | -548 | -1063 | -1661 | -2350 | -3141 | -4044 | -5071 | -6236 | -7553 | -9038 | -10707 | -12580 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -1529 | -1639 | -1755 | -1878 | -2007 | -2144 | -2287 | -2439 | -2598 | -2766 | -2942 | -3128 | -3324 | -3529 | -3746 | -3973 | -4212 | -4464 | -4728 | -5006 | -5298 | -5604 | -5927 | -6265 | -6621 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -550 | -581 | -613 | -647 | -682 | -718 | -757 | -797 | -839 | -883 | -929 | -978 | -1029 | -1082 | -1137 | -1196 | -1257 | -1321 | -1389 | -1459 | -1533 | -1611 | -1693 | -1778 | -1868 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -2079 | -2220 | -2368 | -2524 | -2689 | -2862 | -3044 | -3235 | -3437 | -3649 | -3872 | -4106 | -4352 | -4611 | -4883 | -5169 | -5470 | -5785 | -6117 | -6465 | -6831 | -7215 | -7619 | -8043 | -8489 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -399 | -591 | -746 | -928 | -1141 | -1388 | -1673 | -2000 | -2375 | -2802 | -3288 | -3838 | -4459 | -5159 | -5947 | -6830 | -7820 | -8926 | -10161 | -11536 | -13067 | -14768 | -16657 | -18750 | -21069 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 707 | 868 | 1057 | 1277 | 1531 | 1824 | 2160 | 2543 | 2979 | 3473 | 4033 | 4665 | 5376 | 6174 | 7069 | 8071 | 9190 | 10438 | 11828 | 13374 | 15091 | 16995 | 19106 | 21442 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 362 | -116 | -123 | -129 | -136 | -144 | -151 | -159 | -168 | -177 | -186 | -196 | -206 | -216 | -227 | -239 | -251 | -264 | -278 | -292 | -307 | -322 | -339 | -356 | -374 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 1116 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.90 | 6.20 | 6.50 | 6.83 | 7.17 | 7.53 | 7.91 | 8.30 | 8.72 | 9.15 | 9.61 | 10.09 | 10.60 | 11.13 | 11.68 | 12.27 | 12.88 | 13.52 | 14.20 | 14.91 | 15.65 | 16.44 | 17.26 | 18.12 | 19.03 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 951 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 82 | 65 | 51 | 38 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |