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Intrinsic Value of Ryder System, Inc. (R)

Previous Close$140.50
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$140.50

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %7.27.17.06.96.86.76.66.56.56.46.36.36.26.16.16.06.05.95.95.85.85.75.75.75.6
Revenue, $13546145061552016588177151890220153214702285724317258532746929169309573283734814368913907541371437834631748980517785471757804
Variable operating expenses, $m6339678972637763829188469432100481069711380120991285613651144881536816293172651828719361204902167622923242322560727052
Fixed operating expenses, $m676073347958863493681016411028119661298314086152841658317992195222118122981249352705429354318493455637493406804413847890
Total operating expenses, $m13099141231522116397176591901020460220142368025466273832943931643340103654939274422004534148715523395623260416649126974574942
Operating income, $m44738329919156-108-307-544-823-1150-1530-1969-2474-3052-3712-4460-5309-6266-7345-8557-9915-11436-13135-15029-17138
EBITDA, $m19762022205420692063203519801895177516161413115985047734-487-1096-1802-2617-3551-4618-5832-7208-8764-10517
Interest expense (income), $m3114484905345816306827367938549179841055112912071289137514651560166017651876199221142242
Earnings before tax, $m135-65-191-343-525-738-989-1280-1616-2004-2447-2954-3529-4181-4918-5749-6683-7731-8905-10217-11681-13312-15126-17143-19380
Tax expense, $m37000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m99-65-191-343-525-738-989-1280-1616-2004-2447-2954-3529-4181-4918-5749-6683-7731-8905-10217-11681-13312-15126-17143-19380

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m16390175521877920072214352287224385259792765729423312823323835295374583973342125446394728150058529775604459266626516620769943
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m16390175521877920072214352287224385259792765729423312823323835295374583973342125446394728150058529775604459266626516620769943
Average production assets, $m81958776938910036107181143612193129901382914712156411661917647187291986621062223192364125029264882802229633313253310334971
Working capital, $m-786-841-900-962-1027-1096-1169-1245-1326-1410-1499-1593-1692-1796-1905-2019-2140-2266-2399-2539-2686-2841-3003-3174-3353
Total debt, $m11207122531335714521157481704018403198372134722937246102637028221301683221634368366313900941509441354689549795528425604259404
Total liabilities, $m14751157971690118065192922058421947233812489126481281542991431765337123576037912401754255345053476795043953339563865958662948
Total equity, $m1639175518782007214422872439259827662942312833243529374639734212446447285006529856045927626566216994
Debt-to-equity ratio4.7466.3856.5256.6556.7746.8856.9887.0847.1737.2557.3327.4047.4717.5347.5937.6487.6997.7477.7937.8357.8757.9137.9487.9818.013
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m99-65-191-343-525-738-989-1280-1616-2004-2447-2954-3529-4181-4918-5749-6683-7731-8905-10217-11681-13312-15126-17143-19380
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m1529163917551878200721442287243925982766294231283324352937463973421244644728500652985604592762656621
Funds from operations, $m16281574156415341483140512991159982762495175-205-652-1173-1776-2471-3267-4177-5211-6383-7707-9200-10877-12759
Change in working capital, $m-53-56-59-62-65-69-73-76-80-85-89-94-99-104-109-115-121-127-133-140-147-154-162-170-179
Cash from operations, $m168116291623159615481474137112351062847584268-107-548-1063-1661-2350-3141-4044-5071-6236-7553-9038-10707-12580
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-1529-1639-1755-1878-2007-2144-2287-2439-2598-2766-2942-3128-3324-3529-3746-3973-4212-4464-4728-5006-5298-5604-5927-6265-6621
New CAPEX, $m-550-581-613-647-682-718-757-797-839-883-929-978-1029-1082-1137-1196-1257-1321-1389-1459-1533-1611-1693-1778-1868
Total CAPEX, $m-2079-2220-2368-2524-2689-2862-3044-3235-3437-3649-3872-4106-4352-4611-4883-5169-5470-5785-6117-6465-6831-7215-7619-8043-8489
Free cash flow, $m-399-591-746-928-1141-1388-1673-2000-2375-2802-3288-3838-4459-5159-5947-6830-7820-8926-10161-11536-13067-14768-16657-18750-21069
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m070786810571277153118242160254329793473403346655376617470698071919010438118281337415091169951910621442
Retained Cash Flow, $m362-116-123-129-136-144-151-159-168-177-186-196-206-216-227-239-251-264-278-292-307-322-339-356-374
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1116
Cash available for distribution, $m1007000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.906.206.506.837.177.537.918.308.729.159.6110.0910.6011.1311.6812.2712.8813.5214.2014.9115.6516.4417.2618.1219.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m951000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1008265513828201496421100000000000