Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
Revenue, $ | | 636 | 640 | 645 | 651 | 658 | 667 | 678 | 689 | 702 | 717 | 732 | 749 | 768 | 788 | 809 | 832 | 856 | 882 | 910 | 939 | 970 | 1003 | 1038 | 1075 | 1114 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 573 | 576 | 580 | 586 | 593 | 601 | 610 | 620 | 632 | 645 | 659 | 674 | 691 | 709 | 728 | 749 | 771 | 794 | 819 | 845 | 873 | 903 | 934 | 968 | 1003 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 107 | 116 | 126 | 137 | 148 | 161 | 174 | 189 | 205 | 223 | 242 | 262 | 285 | 309 | 335 | 364 | 394 | 428 | 464 | 504 | 547 | 593 | 644 | 698 | 758 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 680 | 692 | 706 | 723 | 741 | 762 | 784 | 809 | 837 | 868 | 901 | 936 | 976 | 1018 | 1063 | 1113 | 1165 | 1222 | 1283 | 1349 | 1420 | 1496 | 1578 | 1666 | 1761 |
Operating income, $m | | -43 | -52 | -61 | -72 | -82 | -94 | -107 | -120 | -135 | -151 | -169 | -187 | -208 | -230 | -254 | -280 | -309 | -340 | -373 | -410 | -450 | -493 | -540 | -591 | -646 |
EBITDA, $m | | 1 | -7 | -16 | -26 | -37 | -48 | -60 | -73 | -87 | -102 | -118 | -136 | -155 | -176 | -199 | -224 | -250 | -280 | -311 | -346 | -384 | -425 | -469 | -518 | -571 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 1 | 70 | 70 | 71 | 71 | 71 | 72 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 84 | 85 | 87 | 88 | 90 | 92 | 94 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | -44 | -122 | -132 | -142 | -153 | -165 | -178 | -193 | -208 | -225 | -243 | -263 | -284 | -307 | -333 | -360 | -390 | -422 | -457 | -495 | -536 | -581 | -630 | -683 | -740 |
Tax expense, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | -44 | -122 | -132 | -142 | -153 | -165 | -178 | -193 | -208 | -225 | -243 | -263 | -284 | -307 | -333 | -360 | -390 | -422 | -457 | -495 | -536 | -581 | -630 | -683 | -740 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 2195 | 2207 | 2224 | 2245 | 2272 | 2303 | 2338 | 2378 | 2423 | 2473 | 2527 | 2585 | 2649 | 2718 | 2791 | 2870 | 2954 | 3044 | 3139 | 3240 | 3348 | 3462 | 3582 | 3709 | 3844 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 2195 | 2207 | 2224 | 2245 | 2272 | 2303 | 2338 | 2378 | 2423 | 2473 | 2527 | 2585 | 2649 | 2718 | 2791 | 2870 | 2954 | 3044 | 3139 | 3240 | 3348 | 3462 | 3582 | 3709 | 3844 |
Average production assets, $m | | 1341 | 1349 | 1359 | 1372 | 1388 | 1407 | 1429 | 1453 | 1481 | 1511 | 1544 | 1580 | 1619 | 1660 | 1705 | 1754 | 1805 | 1860 | 1918 | 1980 | 2046 | 2115 | 2189 | 2267 | 2349 |
Working capital, $m | | 114 | 115 | 115 | 117 | 118 | 119 | 121 | 123 | 126 | 128 | 131 | 134 | 137 | 141 | 145 | 149 | 153 | 158 | 163 | 168 | 174 | 180 | 186 | 192 | 199 |
Total debt, $m | | 1751 | 1756 | 1763 | 1771 | 1782 | 1794 | 1809 | 1825 | 1843 | 1862 | 1884 | 1907 | 1933 | 1960 | 1990 | 2021 | 2055 | 2091 | 2129 | 2169 | 2212 | 2258 | 2306 | 2357 | 2411 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 878 | 883 | 890 | 898 | 909 | 921 | 935 | 951 | 969 | 989 | 1011 | 1034 | 1060 | 1087 | 1116 | 1148 | 1182 | 1218 | 1256 | 1296 | 1339 | 1385 | 1433 | 1484 | 1538 |
Total equity, $m | | 1317 | 1324 | 1334 | 1347 | 1363 | 1382 | 1403 | 1427 | 1454 | 1484 | 1516 | 1551 | 1589 | 1631 | 1675 | 1722 | 1772 | 1826 | 1883 | 1944 | 2009 | 2077 | 2149 | 2226 | 2306 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.011 | 1.323 | 1.316 | 1.308 | 1.300 | 1.290 | 1.279 | 1.267 | 1.255 | 1.242 | 1.228 | 1.214 | 1.200 | 1.185 | 1.171 | 1.155 | 1.140 | 1.125 | 1.110 | 1.095 | 1.080 | 1.065 | 1.051 | 1.036 | 1.022 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 | 0.600 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | -44 | -122 | -132 | -142 | -153 | -165 | -178 | -193 | -208 | -225 | -243 | -263 | -284 | -307 | -333 | -360 | -390 | -422 | -457 | -495 | -536 | -581 | -630 | -683 | -740 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 46 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 57 | 58 | 60 | 62 | 64 | 66 | 68 | 71 | 73 | 76 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 1 | -77 | -87 | -97 | -107 | -119 | -132 | -145 | -160 | -176 | -193 | -211 | -231 | -253 | -277 | -303 | -331 | -362 | -395 | -431 | -470 | -513 | -560 | -610 | -665 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 0 | -78 | -88 | -98 | -109 | -121 | -133 | -147 | -162 | -178 | -195 | -214 | -235 | -257 | -281 | -307 | -336 | -366 | -400 | -436 | -476 | -519 | -566 | -617 | -672 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -45 | -45 | -45 | -45 | -46 | -46 | -47 | -48 | -48 | -49 | -50 | -51 | -53 | -54 | -55 | -57 | -58 | -60 | -62 | -64 | -66 | -68 | -71 | -73 | -76 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -4 | -7 | -10 | -13 | -16 | -19 | -22 | -25 | -27 | -30 | -33 | -36 | -39 | -42 | -45 | -48 | -51 | -55 | -58 | -62 | -66 | -70 | -74 | -78 | -82 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -49 | -52 | -55 | -58 | -62 | -65 | -69 | -72 | -76 | -80 | -83 | -87 | -92 | -96 | -100 | -105 | -110 | -115 | -120 | -126 | -132 | -138 | -144 | -151 | -158 |
Free cash flow, $m | | -48 | -130 | -143 | -156 | -171 | -186 | -202 | -219 | -238 | -258 | -279 | -302 | -326 | -353 | -381 | -412 | -445 | -481 | -520 | -562 | -608 | -657 | -710 | -767 | -830 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 137 | 153 | 169 | 186 | 204 | 223 | 243 | 265 | 287 | 311 | 337 | 364 | 394 | 426 | 459 | 496 | 535 | 577 | 623 | 672 | 725 | 782 | 844 | 910 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | -202 | -7 | -10 | -13 | -16 | -19 | -21 | -24 | -27 | -30 | -32 | -35 | -38 | -41 | -44 | -47 | -50 | -54 | -57 | -61 | -64 | -68 | -72 | -76 | -81 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 858 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 607 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 579 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 97 | 94 | 91 | 88 | 85 | 81 | 78 | 74 | 70 | 67 | 63 | 59 | 55 | 52 | 48 | 45 | 42 | 38 | 35 | 32 | 29 | 27 | 24 | 22 |